Today’s action all about Yellen and telling as she made it clear — US Economy still needs assistance in after 5 years into recovery!
Alibaba IPO announcement provided us with some see/saw action and some tech rotation which was a drop early, but wisdom prevailed!
MOC = Pit 3.7K / Screen 1.97M
Closing well on the day and with good premiums!
Open range: 1866.70 — 1867.00
Daily high: 1867.60 early
Daily low: 1853.00 late
The MiM closing imbalance: Started small to buy growing to $400M
Cash Close: March futures traded 1857.30 area
Settlement 1860.10 down 13 handles, last week settlement 1857.90
Ukraine / Russian escalation to contend with as tempers have flared and threats have turned into fatalities, casualties and more sanctions in the pipeline that surely will ratchet up the Russian aggression even further. This morning S&P cut Russia’s rating to BBB-, which is a step above junk with a negative outlook and the Russian Central Bank raised its key interest rate to 7.5%.
The mergers and acquisitions and the uptick in earnings this week lead to the early support today. In our opinion, holding the Yell, 1866.25 area was the key and the stronger Richmond Fed data supported the ensuing rally that stepped higher throughout the midafternoon.
Open range: 1866.80 – 1866.50
Daily low: 1866.00a early
Daily high: 1878.50 midday
The MiM closing imbalance: Started small to sell, flipped to a buy of $380M.
Cash Close: March futures traded 1873.10 area
Volume: ESM14 traded 1.1M
Probably record low volume today … as the equities consolidated in the upper end of the recent trading range. The MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM showed a modest, but consider the days volume a large imbalance of $200M growing to $520M going into the cash close. About 150 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release results this week, in an earnings season that has been mediocre. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101593664
Open range: 1859.00 – 1859.30
Daily low: 1856.80a early
Daily high: 1865.50 early afternoon
The MiM closing imbalance: Started out with $520M
Cash Close: June futures traded 1865.00 area
Volume: ESM4 traded 520k
European equity markets have come back from the lows this Tuesday morning and are now up on the day except for Italy. Peripherals are strong, with Spain breaking to new eight- year lows in the 10 year at 3.10; lifetime lows are 2.97% and Greece is rallying with last week’s five-year, making it back to pricing of 4.95. We still think it will rally 100 basis points by the summer. There is an interesting article where China’s foreign currency reserves have reached four-trillion dollars. The more interesting part is that they have 2/3 in dollars and 1/4 in Euros; speculation is that the strength behind the euro is the Chinese trying to diversify from dollars to Euros.
Eastern Europe remains under pressure as the Ukraine/Russian turmoil continues to grow. Latest is that Russian forces (denied by Putin in a conversation that both entities are occupying.
Ukrainian buildings are in 10 different cities. Ukrainian troops have yet to be seen trying to reverse that. Meanwhile the Telegraph Newspaper points out those Russian companies cannot rollover their debt and are perilously close to defaulting on debt.
The estimates are that they need 10 billion a month of rollovers. Russian stocks and bonds remain under pressure. Janet Yellen gives a speech at the Atlanta Fed conference today and speaks at the New York economic dinner this week. Given that it is within the first two days of Passover and Yellen is Orthodox, I was wondering how this could happen. I now have figured it out; her speech today was a prerecording from yesterday before sunset and her dinner speech on Wednesday will be after sunset. I find this interesting…
HIGH 1848.50 / 1849.00
LAST 1830.49 / 1831.00
TOTAL VOLUME 1.8mil
CASH CLOSE 1854.95
MBA Purchase Applications
EIA Petroleum Status
10-Yr Note Auction
Charles Evans Speaks
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
Ugly day ending on a sour note: Dow down 618 points, S&P 500 down 2%, Dow transports off 4%, VIX up 30%.
Open range: 1811.50 – 1812.00
Daily high: 1812.00
Daily low: 1781.80
The MiM closing imbalance: Started modest to sell
and grew and grew into SPX MOC IMBALANCE of $3.1Bil FOR SALE
Cash Close: March futures traded 185.00 area
Volume: ESH14 traded 2.5M
The equities struggled most of the day after housing data and the University of Michigan sentiment diappointed.
Open range: 1837.50 – 1837.80
Daily high: 1840.50 early
Daily low: 1834.00 late – expiry
Cash Close: March futures traded 1832.60 area
The MiM closing imbalance: Started small to sell and flipped to $656 to buy
Volume: ESH14 traded 1.15M
The SPX saw little uptick into European close . The early earnings picture somewhat shaky, some banks not making it easy, 12 others neg. surprises.
S&P futures closed below last week 1837.70. Economic releases next week are many : starting with MBA, Chgo Fed, Home sales, KC Fed along with a pickup in earnings.
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