Market Review
Disclaimer: For educational use only. I’m not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB’s clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!
Yesterday was just an ideal day for trading. It could have made your week if not your month. We had all the mechanics of the professionals. Opening drive up with 3,000 bid holding the market up. If you went in at the 21 you were a happy trader with a 20-point run. And if you waited later on the retest and did it again, you were happy again with a 20-point run.
Now the market was in a tailspin and if you were reaching for a bottom, you might have gotten bit a couple of times. The next level 4191 gave you a scratch or a point. The second level 4186 nailed the low of the day! Be sure and read the Technicals why you would have held it for a 30 point run.
Market Timing: The opening drive may have confused the spill but the AM HIGH could have brought clarity. If you got short there, then you would have held to the lunch low. After getting out, then get back in long. Those were your two best turns on this day for WB’s clock.
Weekly: Today’s probe may have changed price behavior. Let’s see if price can follow through today to end the week strong.
Daily: Probed lower to find a low and found a bid. Price closed strong first time in four days.
Technical Position: Opening drive up, with 3,000 lot hold a bid getting checked at the FED YELL. Then a strong move to the halfway retracement. A bid entering with a second test of the YELL. The last rally up was shorter in duration and extent. This indicated bulls not willing to take it higher. If you watching the DOW futures (I watch all 500 symbols live), you would have seen constant selling pressure.
As the CASH / EMINI futures were pushing down (looking for the lunch low), you would have seen a bid entering into the weakest. AFL and AA, to name just a few. This confirms selling pressure was soon to subside and where was price to go? Up from whence, it came.
Looking Forward Friday, June 18, 2021
GLOBEX: Held a tight 8-point range after Settle. 4212 to 4220 handle. Not much activity.
News, not any news to move the market today.
Bullish Anticipation: Let’s see if price can challenge the 4228 and then 4242 handle on increasing volume and price extent.
Bearish Anticipation: If Globex lows are broken, look for a probe into the 4202 level and then 4191 handle.
Trade Plan: There is still a lot of room to go to get to the top. Let’s see if price can hold the Globex lows. Currently trading in a wide range.
If you are reading this and are not a subscriber, now would be a great time for you to subscribe. Click the red button below to SUBSCRIBE to the AM TURN NEWSLETTER.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close : Nice $1.6B to buy on the MOC
Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
.
SpyGate: Buy bots absent in the AM, but busy in the afternoon
Check out our Daily SpyGate Post
SpyGate is now available free to members of IMPRO and MIM trading room. Join the MiM.
Chart of the Day
U.S. stocks, bonds are moving together
U.S. stocks have stopped zigging when bonds zag, and vice versa. Correlations between futures contracts on the S&P 500 Index and the 10-year Treasury note have been positive on a 90-day basis since March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This month’s readings have reached 0.37, the highest level since November 1999. The relationship “poses significant risks to passive investors” owning both stocks and bonds, Michael Harris, editor of the Price Action Lab Blog, wrote in a post Tuesday that cited the indicator.
Our View
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date June 17, 2021
Welcome To The June Quad Witch
The S&P went on another wild ride Thursday. The futures opened at 4209, traded straight up to 4321.50, sold back down to 4203.24 at 10:15, and rallied back up to a new high of 4221.75, making a new high by 1 tick. After the high, the ES sold off down to a higher low of 4205.25 at 11:18, rallied up to a lower high of 4218.75, and then dropped down to a new daily low at 4185.50 just after 12:30. The new low was followed up by a big late-day buy program that pushed the S&P up to 4221.50. On the 3:50 cash imbalance the ES traded 4217.50 as the MIM went from an early $1.7 billion to buy to $43 million to buy on the 4:00 cash close. On the 4:15 futures close the ES settled at 4213.25, up 4.25 points on the day.
In terms of the S&P’s overall tone, it again fell victim to an early day selloff that saw a quick rip back up to settle firm on the day. It seems like all the big dips and rips could be a prelude to today’s June Quad witching. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.7 million contracts traded.
Our view: In most cases, the ES is busy in the first and last hour which is also where the majority of the day’s volume is done. It’s been good to see the ES pull back but now we have to figure out what the futures are going to do today during the June quad witching. Overall, the stats are weak today but that doesn’t necessarily mean the futures will close weak. Our lean is again to sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks and worry about the close later in the day.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
No responses yet