Wayne Whaley of Witter Lester joined Danny Riley of MrTopStep for a webinar featuring what to look forward to in the markets for 2016 (see the full webinar below). Here is a little taste of some of the things he looks at to gauge the markets.
Each day, my daily scan provides the statistics for 14 different markets, based on the seasonal tendencies for the next next day, week, month.
I also get those same statistics as a function of the current trailing week, month, and quarterly price trends.
I also get the seasonals as a function of what the other 13 markets in my database are doing, as well as an election cycle breakdown for the upcoming day, week, month, quarter and year.
More studies than I have time to look at most days.
Therefore, I’ve ask the daily model to try to alert me with fireworks , if something extremely statistically aberrant is going on each day.
I try to pass along any interesting studies I see, particularly in the S&P and Bond Markets.
I’m not really sure, why I have never thought to do so, but attached today, you will, for the first time from me, get a summary of each of the 12 calendar months for eleven of the fourteen markets I follow. I suspect I’ve never done this before, because I give you a fairly detailed breakdown of the upcoming month, at the end of each month.
Where Cash indexes are readily available, I use those, such as the S&P, Nasdaq, FTSE and Nikkei.
I use 30 Year Treasury Bond Yields instead of Bond Prices, for a couple of different reasons.
The remaining markets were based on a rolling perpetualized contracts, that is, with the contract rolls extracted.
I didn’t include the three Agricultural’s today, because different Ag contracts often act like different markets depending on whether they are in season or out of season contracts. In my daily analysis, I focus on the next contract, or most liquid contract. I could generate a similar output for the Ags if there were interest in such, based on reading a different contract each month, but that would take a little more work than was required to generate the eleven markets in today’s post. I’m kind of hoping no one ask to see such. You get the monthly’s each month based on the next contract.
I suspect this is more information than you need or want, but if nothing else, gives you an idea what I’m working with. I did notice that for the S&Ps, I have traditionally thought of November through January as the annual sweet spot, but over the last 30 years, March-May, is nothing to sneeze about either. I didn’t add any observations. I’ll let you draw your own.
Personally, I feel that the monthly performances, based on the current prevailing trend is much more useful, and of course, it is my opinion, the manner in which the S&Ps turns the year is critical in my work. But these studies give you a benchmark from hence to begin. Probably, not a bad paper to keep in your permanent files.