With no real news out of Europe and only one economic number to get past this morning, we could be headed for another long day. This is also the time of the year that many of the big trading desks let the traders take time off. Our COO and I met with TheStreet’s Jill Malandrino and some friends at the usually packed Ceres Cafe outside the CBOT on a beautiful summer afternoon yesterday. Jill and I had just done a video report from the floor. Even there it was quiet, with open tables. Plain and simple, it’s going to slow, but that doesn’t mean the S&P won’t be moving around. It will be. And someone will make a lot of money following it.
According to the Ned Davis S&P cash study, the Friday the week before the August expiration has been up 13 / down 16 of the last 29 occasions. The big question is, can the S&P keep going up after yesterday’s big bounce? It’s our guess that it can, but we also think we could be looking at another two-way trade. Ideally, we lean to buying weakness, but we are just not sure about today.
As always, keep an eye on the 10- handle rule and please use stops when trading futures and options. We don’t just say that, by the way. We mean it. It’s at the heart of smart trading.
Lastly, please find an hour to look at the PitBull speaking at Amherst College. He has been my friend for a long time but I still love hearing him talk. “A Market Wizard Speaks: Marty Schwartz speaks at Amherst College, Spring 2013.” At Marty’s request, we are offering the full video free of charge to you and the world. Few people trade as well as Marty does. Even fewer are willing to share what they’ve learned.
Here are your morning numbers:
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- Morning Headline: “ S&P Futures Seen Lower Ahead of Wholesale Trade Data”
- Total volume: 1.5mil ESU and 8.3k SPU traded
- Economic calendar: Wholesale Trade
- Ned Davis Expiration Study for August 2013: http://mrtopstep.com/2013/08/expiration-study-for-august-2013/
