As the S&P 500 is up rather impressively, 24.9% year-to-date
this year through today’s close on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, we ran the
numbers on the 33 previous years with double digit year-to-date gains at this
juncture since 1950. There are a few blemishes, but in general market gains
continued into yearend.
Most importantly, there are no major selloffs on this list.
The big December decline of -9.2% in 2018 came after the S&P 500 was down
-1.2% at this point in the year. After double-digit YTD gains the S&P 500
was up 70% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to yearend for an
average gain of 2.3%.
Also of note is that the Santa Claus Rally suffered only
four losses in these years. But these four down SCRs in 1955, 1968, 1999 and
2014 were followed by flat years in 1956 and 2015 and down years in 1969 and
2000. As Yale’s famous line states (2021 Almanac page 116 and 2022 Almanac page
118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.”