Since 1930, the S&P 500 has traded a grand total of 155 Friday 13th across all twelve months. The overall track record is 85 up days and 70 down days with a modestly bullish average gain of 0.03% on all Friday 13ths. The worst Friday 13th loss was 6.12% in October 1989. This day is often referred to as “Black Friday.” The best Friday 13th gain was 9.29% in March 2020. Digging deeper into the data reveals that May Friday 13th has been up 6 times, down 7 times with an average loss of 0.45%.
DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all on the verge of extending their respective weekly losing streaks another week despite today’s bounce. Considering recent volatility it still remains to be seen if this morning’s gains can hold until the close. Whether or not gains hold, will likely have little to do with superstition.
We used to have a sign in the old office about picking
downside targets. It said one thing, don’t do it. Several support levels we
have highlighted over the past few months have been either violated or are under
attack. So even though picking downside targets may be a futile effort, here are
some levels we’ve been looking at.
March 2021 Lows
The market smashed through support at the February 24
intraday lows and now support at the March 2021 lows has been breached by
NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 (NDX), the benchmark we
have been tracking of late. S&P 500 and DJIA have not broken below
their respective March 2021 lows around 3750 and 31000 respectively, but they
both flirted with them today.
This brings support at the 2020 September/October lows into
play, which is even clearer on the S&P weekly chart below. NASDAQ and NDX
are practically there already. Notice how the March 2021 NDX low support also
lines up with the top of the W-123 swing bottom pattern in September/October