Posted: 30 Nov 2020 11:19 AM PST
In the soon to be available, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2021, on page 88, it is shown that the first trading days of every month since September 1997 for DJIA have produced nearly 40% of the total gain. Greatest gains were produced by the first day of March followed by February and July. However December’s first trading day has not been as productive for DJIA or S&P 500. In the following table, the performance of the first trading day of December over the most recent 21 years is presented.
Aside from disastrous 2008, first trading day of December losses have been relatively mild. The second worst loss, slightly less than 1% was in 2001. Although the table is full of years with 1% or greater gains, consistency is lacking. Since 2006, December’s first trading day has been weaker, down nine of the last fourteen for DJIA and NASDAQ and ten of fourteen for S&P 500. Today’s market weakness could be setting up December’s first trading day to be another “turn around Tuesday.”