Posted: 20 Jan 2021 04:14 PM PST
It was an historic day for in many respects today, but for
market participants this was the biggest gain on an Inauguration Day since the
Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution was ratified moving Inauguration Day
from March 4 to January 20 with the S&P 500 up 1.4% on the day.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the first to be inaugurated on
January 20, 1937 at the outset of his second of four terms. FDR was the last to
seek and attain more than two terms. U.S. Presidential term limit of two terms
was enacted in 1951 when the Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution was
There have been 25 Inaugurations since 1937 marking every
new presidential term. All but three have been in January: Truman in 1945 when
FDR died in office, Johnson in 1963 when JFK was assassinated and Ford in 1974
when Nixon resigned. The average gain for these 25 is -0.34% with 10 up and 15
down and the biggest gain in 1937 of 1.25% on the day.
In our view only the first inaugurations of a new president in
January are relevant as there are clearly new agendas and policies that are
about to be implemented. There have been 10 new presidents inaugurated to their
first term in January since 1937. (One could argue that Bush 41 was a
continuation of the Reagan administration as he was VP for 8 years.)
On the days these 10 new presidents were inaugurated in January
the S&P 500 has posted an average -0.34%, 4 up / 6 down. Prior to today the
biggest gain was on Ike’s first day with a 0.50% for the S&P 500.