From yesterday’s post, we knew February has a tepid recent
record. In post-election years, February’s historically record has been even
worse as historical average losses swell. In order to include as much data as
we have available, we are using DJIA data since 1901, S&P 500 since 1930,
NASDAQ from 1971 and Russell 1000& 2000 data beginning in 1979. When
comparing post-election year February to the recent
21-year February seasonal pattern, the overall shape and trend does not
change greatly however, weakness becomes more prevalent as the mid-month surge
is less pronounced and second half declines expand.
Breaking down historical performance by year confirms
frequent post-election-year February losses, most notably by NASDAQ and DJIA.
Generally speaking, when February is positive it is an “ok” month, but when the
month has been down, it has frequently been down by sizable amounts. There are
seven double-digit losses in the table and not a single double-digit gain.