Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2020, DJIA plunged 4011 points (-17.2%) during the week ending on the 20th.
Normally a decent performing market month, post-election year payments to the Piper take a toll on March as average gains are trimmed noticeably (see Vital Statistics table below). In post-election years March ranks: 5th worst for DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000; NASDAQ is 4th worst. In 12 post-election years since 1973, NASDAQ has advanced six times, with three in a row 2009, 2013 and 2017.
Subscribers to Almanac Investor get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse.