In the above chart we have plotted five different S&P 500 seasonal patterns along side 2021 through today’s close. “All Years 1949-2020” and “All Years 1988-2020” represent longer-term and mid-term baseline patterns. “All Post-Election Years” includes every year that was a post-presidential-election year regardless of outcome. “1St Year Democratic President” applies to this post-election year and so does “Post-Election Year After Incumbent Party Loss.”
When comparing 2021 to these various past seasonal patterns, this year’s performance is above average, and the S&P 500 is currently experiencing some of the weakness present in the other five patterns. Historical weakness (shaded in light blue) is most visible in the three post-election year patterns in February lasting until early to mid-March depending on the post-election year pattern. All three historical post-election year patterns suggest that current weakness could be ending soon.