In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 28 of the past 36 years with an average historical gain of 2.6%. This year the rally may have begun early and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last eleven years, up ten times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.7% during the 12-day span.