Bears need to stitch those negative days together $ES_F 1686 x 1675

Today’s Economic News:

Not much there.  Just a reminder that Japan has a ways to got yet, but they are getting better.  Auctions in the US.

Quote of the Day:
He is poor who does not feel content.
–Japanese proverb

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

We will feature the Zweig today.  For us bears, we want to see that sub 40 number.  That means we are scoring.  In order to do that, we need to string together days of  NYSE –2:1 A/D line readings.  There is something to watch today.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1686
Long:  1675

We see continued upside on the ATR as we approach the number 3 again.  Last time we saw the market settle a bit and actually rally.   The movement is very different this time as we have started a series of lower highs & lows.

We like 1675 for  a hold today, but we also like 1672.  So if we were to trade today, we would be cautious around that 1675 area if we could not hold stops down to say 1668.   On the upside, we think the next lower high should set up around 1686.  We remain bearish but on a day by day basis until we see more weakness in breadth.

On the MiM:

Another good day on the MiM.  I did manage to get a trade off at 3:22pm ET:

Entry:redliontrader (08/09/2013 – 15:22:20):  trying to fill short hereredliontrader (08/09/2013 – 15:22:27): 89.75 Exit:redliontrader (08/09/2013 – 15:54:48): took 87.0

There was a bit of a shake, as we came lower that closing imbalance was evaporating and in fact, at 3:40pm ET, I lost my signal but I was green and I put in my BE stops at that point willing to scratch the trade if it fell apart:

redliontrader (08/09/2013 – 15:42:22): b/e stops in

I didn’t get stopped out and that anticipating sad face turned in to a happy face as the bounce that occurred pre reveal (3:45pm ET when the NYSE MOC data is published) reversed back to the downside.

The last 4 days on the MiM have been selling biased.  The first two days marginally so, but both Thursday and Friday showed some decent sell side activity.

I will not be here today to trade, so best of luck to all you out there.

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: http://closingimbalance.com

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

We are watching 106.50 for a hold and a possible attempt to run to the 108 area.  We think there is room for rates to go down still.

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Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Zweig getting a bit of a boost into the Friday close.  We think this morning’s gap open could be a buy.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Upside volume has stalled out.

Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

There was positive breadth on Friday.  We need to watch as the broader market might just be getting solid enough support to form a foundation for the bulls to leap from.  If you are short and want to be protective, watch the Russell 2000 a/d lines and see if risk is in favor.  It doesn’t have to be positive, just leading.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

New Highs not suggesting any strengthening.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

Bearish:

Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bearish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

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