Bitcoin price completed its fifteenth week of 2019 overnight and once again the bulls managed to print a higher high on the candle close we take a look at what this means going in to the week ahead.
Weekly Chart
Bitcoin price 00 closed the week up at $5295, up an impressive 58% from the lows record during the first week in February and 43% for the year as a whole. As such, there is little surprise that investors and speculators alike are starting to pay attention to the crypto space one again.
Adding weight to the move in price, BTC/USD has recorded ten of the fifteen weeks of the year with green volume candles and is now onto its eleventh higher high on the MACD. This is unprecedented, even for Bitcoin, and shows the momentum in price that the move has had to date.
The MACD itself is still some way below the zero line but it is on course to break to the bullish side if Bitcoin can continue the momentum this week.
For perspective the last time it broke to the bullish side was in October of 2015, when Bitcoin broke out of the previous bear market, although there was a near miss and close call in 2015.
Bitcoin Price: 2015 vs 2019
When comparing the previous bear market bottom and 2019, Bitcoin was held back by the 50 WMA and generally speaking, the whole bottom cycle took longer compared to 2019 lows and current bear market cycle.
The difference in 2019 is that Bitcoin looks a lot stronger in 2019 in terms of volume, which has supported the first attempt to break the 50 WMA.
The final move out of the 2016 lows came with a large spike in volume, similar to that seen on the second of April.
Therefore, although the 50 WMA has historically been a major barrier, bitcoins current momentum could see it break this resistance upon first attempt following this strong period of consolidation.
Volume Profile
Looking at the volume profile on the weekly chart, its clear that the price of bitcoin is consolidating within the range that previously saw a lot of volume. The next high volume of trading levels, meanwhile, are above at $6000.
It is likely that this area will act as resistance initially if the bulls can make a new yearly high above $5467, which is certainly in play at this stage.
The VPVR point of control is effectively at the April low, from which bitcoin broke out from. So if there was any kind of breakdown, the $4000 level, supported by the 200 WMA (now at $3500) should act as support.
4-Hour Chart
Looking at the price action early on Monday morning, its clear to see that BTC price has established a trading range between $5200 and $5350, with the bulls showing strength already above $5300 being a very positive sign.
A clear close above $5350 would be an extremely bullish sign for the bulls, which would then look to consolidate before pressing on to take out the annual highs that are $100 above.
A fall below $5200 would possibly open the door to a retest of the lows last week, which would certainly be a sign of weakness for the bulls. The stochastic RSI, however, is crossed bullish, which has led to higher prices in each of the previous time of asking. So this would indicate the bulls will likely attempt to break out of the $5350 range.
BTC Price Bulls Eyeing $6,000
In summary, all indicators suggest that Bitcoin wants to continue higher and all that is required is more of the same buying pressure over the next couple of weeks which would potentially lead to a retest of the old support at $6000. Failing that, the $4000 level is now likely to act as strong support if it is tested.
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