mts2 (07/24/2013 – 20:23) DeMark pivots 1672.45 and 1689.05
mts2 (07/24/2013 – 20:28) a major research newsletter put this out this (y’day) afternoon – A traders’ sell signal was triggered today…and they noted that selling intensified with today’s Down Volume at 75% of total Up/Down Volume, most since the June market low… this suggests the potential for further near-term weakness…Larry_Keenum (05:17) GM RV, wtf happened. Roger_Volz (05:19) yield pop > 2.6%…UK GDP numbers good – overall earnings disappoint / German Ifo better / Spain unemployment notches down / kiwi NZD talking rate hikes I believe…. could not confirm when… was all yield story. Roger_Volz (05:41) ZN < yesterday low 126’03 opens some air and trouble for bulls; currently sitting on 21-day sma / may be inverted h/s right shoulder processing.
Today started with a light 269k ESU and 900 SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1672.00 – 1684.20. Wednesday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1677.70 – 1694.30 before settling at 1683.80, down 4.5 handles. Two of the biggest homebuilders [DHI] [PHM] and yesterday [TOL] reported earnings this morning and both dragged the sector [XHB] lower, suggesting a slowdown may be coming as rates have risen and the economy crawls above the expansion level as evidenced by the lackluster earnings season and inconsistent economic data. Earnings estimates have been lowered and lowered again and corporations are having trouble on the lowered hurdles. Durable goods checked in much better at 4.2% vs est of 1.4% and initial jobless claims rose to 343k vs est 340k. Also, crude – thankfully hit a slippery slope…Stanton_Analytics (07:42) Crude: The low of the day may have been seen. The pivot is 105.05.
Today’s pit hours gapped 6.5 handles lower to 1677.50 – 1676.50, marking the initial high before trading 1675.30. Sam_E (08:39) as you know I use volume charts. es 50000 we have a wonderful eve adam setting up rounded top. Then 1 big spike up for adam which i think will also be a right shoulder and then the fall. Its all setting up. iceChat (08:42) es sitting on a trendline 120 min tops from late May/early June – low in mid July. Bloomberg consumer sentiment checked in at a new high for the year and the S&P rode the rollercoaster up to 1682 area and down to a new intraday low by just a tick to 1675.20 going into the European close at 10:30. The Russell [RUT] found some footing and began trending higher through the midmorning while the financials, [BKX] [XLF], and the [DJIA] [DJT] followed. The crude recovered the morning losses following a Yemen pipeline explosion and traded a new daily high as the SPU closed the morning gap at 1683.80 by 12:00.
The afternoon session was trading sideways to higher, a new high of 1685.00 before fading to 1681 area. william_blount (13:240) price wise BEARS need back thru the 1681.5 and the roundy (1680) to do any dancing AND bulls need to go after 1689. By 2:00 1680 area was trading in light volume iceChat (14:14:01): chatter story out on WSJ – QE and the equities caught a bid... a snippet of the article follows iceChat (14:16) By JON HILSENRATH The Federal Reserve is on track to keep its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program in place at its policy meeting next week, but officials likely will debate changes to the way the central bank describes its plans for the program and for short-term interest rates. Sam_E (14:40) problem for nq is that the twin 86’s are also at the same place. 57 let see if the fulls have enough guts to go get the normalized 61’s nq. So the bottom line i short the 57 nq and add 61 – above that i’m wrong. The SPU traded up to a new high of 1686.20 going into the closing imbalance. The closing imbalance was a moderate $430M to the sell side, the S&P traded 1685.30 area on the cash close as the DJT closed lower for the 4th day in a row. The SPU settled at 1684.00, up .2 handles on the day.
Friday’s earnings before the open: [ABBV], [AON], [KKR], [LEA], [NWL], [SWK], [TYC], [WBC], [WY]. We are over the hump of the earnings season – there are still big names that have yet to report and there will be many watching the retailers to gauge how the consumer is faring. We have a bunch of big “macro” events next week – including an FOMC decision Wednesday 1:00 pm CT, BOE decision Thursday 6 am CT, ECB decision 6:45 am CT, followed by the US jobs report on Friday at 7:30 am CT.
The final manufacturing PMIs will hit from China (Wed night) and the US/Europe (Thurs morning). Data from these latter two countries has generally been moving in the right direction and the formal July prints will likely continue that trend. China is the big wildcard – the Markit flash reading deteriorated further in July, although the official government NBS calculation is a bit different and thus could hold in better.