Adjusted on: 9/22 US 30-Year Bond: In order to change the market – to move it from the trading market it’s been lately – the bulls need to take out 132.15 – which allows for a run at 133.12 – or downside, the bears need trade thru 130.28 (targets 130.12 and 130.05. BOTH interest me for a fade).
10-Year Treasury Note: Strength – and keep the yield in mind – will want to re-test 125.285. As far as a trigger for higher trade, that’s 126.14. 124.30 lends solid support – but a failure will target 123.265 – which makes fades at 124.08 and 124.015 much riskier.
5-Year Treasury Note: As I moved in the curve the trade potential looks better. 120.04 needs to be considered “last support” here as a failure goes after 119.17. The trigger for higher trade is 121.11_7 – and that will be a first-touch fade.
S&P500 Stock Index: Although the pivot lends support, the upside is very suspect; the bulls need to at least get trade back above 17.25. Weakness WANTS to test 85.75.
| DEC BONDS | DEC 10s | DEC 5s | DEC SP500 |
| 133.12* target | 126.14 pivotal | 121.11_7 pivotal |
1735.75 |
| 132.31 | 126.09* | 121.015 |
1723.75 watch |
| 132.15 highs | 125.285 watch | 120.255 watch |
1717.25 watch |
| 131.31 | 125.06 PIVOT (2.75%) | 120.19* |
1698.75 PIVOT (sm true) 1685.75 pivotal |
| 131.14* PIVOT | 124. 30 pivotal | 120.10 PIVOT (true) |
1671.75 pivotal |
| 130.28 pivotal | 124.16* | 120.04* |
|
| 130.12 pivotal | 124.08 pivotal | 119.26_7* |
|
| 130.05 pivotal | 124.015 pivotal | 119.17 pivotal | |
| 129.30* | 123.265 target | ||
| 129.13*
|
123.185* | ||
| 129.02 target
|
