Adjusted on: 9/23 US 30-Year Bond: The pivot (3.75%) has to be our key…there IS support at 131.03 but it is THAT failure that allows a deeper fall to 130.14. The bulls can get strength by defending either the yield OR 131.03 – otherwise they need to take out 132.15.
10-Year Treasury Note: As long as trade stays above the yield (last seen at 125.06) we need to see if the bulls can pressure 125.29. There’s nothing but air above 126.14…124.305 (chop) and 124.16 are both solid-enough support to fade – but do so knowing that weakness (meaning losing the yield) is vulnerable to 124.02.
5-Year Treasury Note: Losing 120.05_7 lets 5s go after 119.155. Consider 120.19 as “last resistance” with a move thru there pressuring 120.255.
S&P500 Stock Index: Market is still prone to weakness – to move to 85.25. The bears can REALLY damage the market if they can take out 74-70.25 – that will allow a run at 44.25. The bulls need to re-control this pivot just for starters.
| DEC BONDS | DEC 10s | DEC 5s | DEC SP500 |
| 133.12 major | 126.25 | 121.015 |
1723.50 highs |
| 132.31 | 126.14 pivotal | 120.255 pivotal (favor bulls) |
1716.50 pivotal |
| 132.15 highs | 126.09* | 120.19* |
1711.25* |
| 131.29 PIVOT (3.75%) | 125.29 pivotal | 120.14 PIVOT |
1698.75 PIVOT (true) 1692.50 cl |
| 131.14* | 125.13 PIVOT | 120.10_2 1.50%? |
1685.25 pivotal |
| 131.03 pivotal | 125.06 2.75%? | 120.05_7 pivotal |
1674.00 pivotal |
| 130.28* | 124.305 major | 119.26_7* |
1670.25 watch 1661.75* |
| 130.14 pivotal | 124.16* | 119.155 pivotal | |
| 129.30* | 124.02 pivotal | ||
| 129.13*
|
