Adjusted on: 9/4 US 30-Year Bond: Now bonds want to bounce – to target 131.06 – and until the stops get hit we need to trade with that in mind.
10-Year Treasury Notes: 10s “bounce” from yesterday’s letter has not been negated; while trade below 122.315 COULD be the move to take the bounce “off, we’ll certainly see weakness below 122.265. 124.01 is the bull’s target.
5-Year Treasury Note: The key here is this pivot – even if the % has moved a bit. Weakness seeks 118.23_2; while there IS support there, faders should note how far down the bond & 10YR targets are… Be careful fading rallies off the 1 ¾%.
S&P500 Stock Index: The pivot SHOULD be 28.50 but because the big picture is still bearish I set it a bit high. Trade THRU 1628.50 targets 1589.75. 1669.25 will offer resistance – but trade thru it targets 1681 – and it is bull-control of 1681 that removes the “big picture” bearish bias.
| DEC BONDS | DEC 10s | DEC 5s | SEPT SP500 |
| 132.07 look for follow-thru | 124.09 major | 119.18_7* |
1681.00 pivotal |
| 131.22 major | 124.01 target | 119.16 target |
1669.25 pivotal |
| 131.06 pivotal | 123.265 buy | 119.11* |
1648.50* |
| 130.30 scalp buy | 123.18 | 119.035 |
1636.75* PIVOT 1628.50 pivotal |
| 130.06 | 123.03 PIVOT | 118.28_2 PIVOT (1.75% too?) |
1609.00* |
| 129.28 PIVOT | 122.315 stops? | 118.23_2 pivotal |
1602.50* |
| 129.11 stops | 122.265 pivotal | 118.125 |
1589.75* target |
| 128.21 watch | 122.03 | 118.05 | |
| 128.16 target | 121.24 target
|
||
| 128.13 target | |||
| 127.05 |
