Adjusted on: 8/14 Comments: bold prices are also important for bias flipping
US 30-Year Bond: Bearish bias is OFF above 135.24. 136.12 MIGHT be a pivotal. Remember the current “downside bias” – and it should be “home free’ below 131.27.
10-Year Treasury Notes: 127.15 should hold for a first-touch fade. Market is bullish above 127.22. I put the yield at yesterday’s sl as a reminder that we are not too far from the 2 ¾%…watch for it…
5-Year Treasury Note: Note we’re not too far from the 1.5%…keep an eye out for it…bulls do BEST above 121.255…bears BEST below 120.20…
S&P500 Stock Index: BOTH the pivot AND 87.75 are keeping pressure on this market…the bulls need SOME kind of hold above them or a GOOD run thru the highs. Continued weakness at 69 lets trade go after the 1661 “trigger”…
| SEPT BONDS | SEPT 10s | SEPT 5s | SEPT SP500 |
| 137.21 target | 128.26 major | 122.26 target |
1739.25 |
| 137.06* | 127.22 pivotal | 122.05 major |
1723.50 pivotal |
| 136.31 long above | 127.15 pivotal | 121.255 pivotal |
1705.00 |
| 136.24 pivotal | 127.085 watch | 121.13 pivotal |
1695.75 PIVOT (true) 1687.75 watch |
| 136.12 watch | 126.315 current highs | 121.06 PIVOT (true) |
1669.00 pivotal |
| 135.24 long above | 126.21 pivotal (BAD chop) | 121.01_2 1.468% |
1661.00 weak below |
| 135.19 stops | 126.045 pivotal | 120.20* bears need |
1653.00 target |
| 135.02 this week’s hi
134.23 resist |
125.25 wed sl (2.713 %) | 119.31 target | 1636.75 major |
| 134.03 target | 125.065 pivotal
124.15 pivotal |
119.27 pivotal | 1629.00 pivotal |
| 133.15 watch | 1608.00 pivotal | ||
| 133.07 expect follow-thru
132.20 PIVOT (3 ¾%) 131.27 pivotal 129.00 target 126.00 pivotal |
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| Economic Calendar | (all times Central) | Expected | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/15: 7:30 | CPI | .3 | .5 |
| 9:00 | Philly Fed | 15.9 | 19.8 |
| Core | .2 | .2 | |
| 8/16: 7:30 | Productivity | .6 | .5 |
| NY Empire | 9.8 | 9.46 | |
| Housing Starts | 904 | 836 | |
| Initial Claims | 335 | 333 | |
| 8:55 | Mich. Sentiment | 85.2 | 83.9 |
| 8:00 | TICS | -12.0 | -27.2 |
