Comments: US 30-Year Bond: The pivot is the key…the 134.00 is a NICE target up-top and bonds will lose a lot of sell pressure back up thru 133.15. Weakness looks to re-test 131.27 – and it’s follow-thru THERE that brings the drop to 129 and 126 into play.
10-Year Treasury Notes: If the bulls can take out 126.03 it lets them test 126.23. 126.23 SHOULD be a chop – but follow-thru higher will seek 127.14 (pivotal). NOTE: The 2 ½% COULD be near 127.04. Downside has no support.
5-Year Treasury Note: Above 121.255 targets 122.055 – a first touch fade; 120.20 is ‘last support”…the market will lose sell pressure above both 121.06 and 121.13_2.
S&P500 Stock Index: Strength – and if we don’t wait til thru the highs we better at least get a hold of this pivot – will seek 1722.50. Trade is vulnerable to the downside below the pivot – and we’ll look for trade thru 78.75 to test 69.
| SEPT BONDS | SEPT 10s | SEPT 5s | SEPT SP500 |
| 134.19 resist | 126.23 pivotal | 121.255 pivotal |
1722.50 pivotal |
| 134.00* target | 126.03 pivotal | 121.195 sm pivotal |
1705.20 highs (sc) |
| 133.15 pivotal | 125.22* PIVOT | 121.13_2 pivotal |
1691.25 PIVOT (true) |
| 133.07 look for follow-thru | 125.065 pivotal | 121.06* |
1678.75 rec lows 1669.00 pivotal |
| 132.21 PIVOT (3 ¾%) | 124.15 pivotal | 120.315* PIVOT |
1661.00 weak below |
| 131.27 pivotal | 120.20* |
1654.50 target |
|
| 130.19 | 120.135 |
|
|
| 120.075 |
