Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Thursday September 26, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   
8:30ET Weekly Jobless Claims; 8:50ET Fed’s Kaplan speaks; 10:00ET New Home Sales, Fed’s Powell testifies again; 12:00ET Fed’s Bullard speaks; 1:00ET  7 Year Note Auction, Fed’s Barkin speaks, Evans speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks, Bostic speaks

Today’s initial jobless claims number is expected to come in at 840,000, a number that would not represent a significant improvement on recent
data. Continuing claims are forecast to drop to 12.3 million. 

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:

• Insiders Sell Stock at Fastest Pace Since 2012
  
  link
• Two police officers shot amid Louisville protests, one suspect in custody
• North Korean troops killed missing South Korean official, burned body, South Korea military says
• Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden, Trump about even in Florida, Arizona
  
  link
• Baboon arrested, in prison in South Africa after raiding homes
  
  link
• 88 pilot whales rescued from Tasmanian coast after Australia’s worst mass beaching
  
  link

Global shares slid on investor concern about another economic hit from the coronavirus pandemic. The global risk-off mood comes amid a pickup
in virus cases that has raised the prospect of another round of lockdowns and restrictive measures that could stifle the developing recovery. The darkening outlook has put global equities on course for their first monthly slide since March. Investor worries
about a second wave of virus lockdowns are starting to come true, with Israel the latest country to reintroduce restrictions as it battles a resurgence of infections.

EQUITIES:  

U.S. equity futures fluctuated and stocks in Europe pared declines as a global selloff sparked by the Federal Reserve’s warning that more fiscal
stimulus is needed to sustain the economic recovery showed signs of easing.  Contracts on the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones pointed to modest gains after Wednesday’s rout, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 edged lower.  Chances for another Congressional
aid package that could soften the blow of a second wave of the pandemic are withering ahead of a contentious U.S. election while investors are also grappling with the idea that growth expectations might not materialize. Market analysts are already warning
about higher volatility around November 3, with fears of a drawn-out process feeding expectations of increased uncertainty to the end of the year. 

December E-mini S&P futures -0.3%,
Nasdaq -0.75%, Russell 2000 futures +0.25%, Dow futures -0.2%. SPX remains negative below its 50dma and  has next key support around its 100 day at 3197. ES continues to hover around the 10% correction area, but we are looking for a test of the 200 day at
3095

Nasdaq futures are lower this morning after holding the 50dma, now pivotal short term resistance. Look for a test of the 10,235 area

Small caps have been underperforming the last few days as IWM settled below its 200 day moving average, down nearly 3% yesterday.

NYSE FANG+ Index would likely see continued downside momentum with a break of the
50dma

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower after falling sharply at the open, following a selloff in Asia. Eurostoxx 50 trades flat, having initially
traded as much as 1.1% in the red. British retail sales grew this month at the fastest rate since April 2019. Business morale in Germany and France improved for the fifth month in a row in September, despite the surge in coronavirus cases. The Ifo institute
said its business climate index rose to its highest reading since February. Banks outperform, up 1.5%, after the ECB handed euro-area lenders 174.5 billion euros in targeted loans, known as TLTROs. The loans will likely push excess liquidity in the euro zone
above 3 trillion euros for the first time on record.  Autos up 1.25%, while tech is biggest loser among industry groups, down 1%.DAX flat, CAC -0.1%, Euro STOXX 600 -0.4%

Asian stocks fell, led by IT and energy, as concerns about rising coronavirus cases hammered investors’ risk appetite. India, South Korea and
Taiwan, among the strongest performers in recent weeks thanks to their appeal to technology investors, were the worst hit, falling 1.9%, 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively.  In Japan, the Topix declined 1.1% with Takakita and Niitaka falling the most. The Shanghai
Composite Index retreated 1.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index -1.8%, near a four-month low following a selloff in equity markets worldwide.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve as U.S. trading gets under way, ahead of risk events including 7-year auction and another bevy
of Fed speakers including Powell at 10am. Treasury auction cycle concludes with $50b 7-year note at 1pm ET; Wednesday’s 5-year offering drew a record low yield about a basis point lower than the WI yield at the bidding deadline.

METALS: 

Gold dropped to a more than two-month low, weakened by a rebounding dollar and as analysts said the lack of additional stimulus measures reduced
the metal’s appeal. The price of gold, now in the grip of its longest decline since June. Gold tends to thrive in times of broader economic weakness, but its recent fall is happening despite increased doubts about an economic recovery. silver fell as much
as 5.4%, its lowest since July 22, and was last down 3.3%. December Gold futures are testing the key Fibonacci retracement support as Silver leads the decline, down 27% from the early August high.

Copper is vulnerable to a pullback with a settle today below its
50dma

ENERGY:  

Crude oil held below $40 a barrel even after a decline in American stockpiles, amid depressed fuel demand in the US and the state of the global
economy.  Also weighing is a stronger dollar and a renewed wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe that led to renewed travel restrictions in several countries. On the supply side, the market remains wary of a resumption of exports from Libya, although it is unclear
how quickly it can ramp up volumes.
Natural gas extended gains after their biggest daily advance in seven weeks, on optimism that a cold winter will stoke heating
demand.

CURRENCIES:  

The U.S. dollar held at a two-month high as investors sought its safe-haven appeal on growing concerns over the resilience of an economic recovery
in the United States and Europe amid a second wave of coronavirus infections. The Norwegian and the Swedish crown came under particular selling pressure in London trading hours after the former trimmed its inflation forecasts for the next year and said no
rate hikes are planned for now. Sterling edged slightly higher ahead of an eventful day, with finance minister Rishi Sunak expected to unveil a new set of measures to support the COVID-hit economy. The Turkish lira and the forint bucked the trend after the
Turkish central bank unexpectedly lifted its benchmark rate and Hungarian policy makers raised a key interest rate two days after a regular meeting where policy makers left borrowing costs unchanged. The Turkish lira jumped as much as 1.9% after the central
bank raised the one-week repo rate by 200 basis points to 10.25%.

The US$ Index is testing the March 9^th significant low and a move above it would likely see a test of the .382 Fibonacci retracement
around 96.

The Pound is holding its initial key Fib support.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• SPI +50.9% (+$7.13); SPI Energy Soars More Than 1,200% on Electric Vehicle Plans
• LOGC +49.3% (+$2.67)
• SSP +44.2% (+$4.63); E.W. Scripps Nears $2.65B Takeover of Ion Media: DJ
• OMI +26.8% (+$3.70)
• SOLO +25.8% (+$0.66)
• KLDO +21.8% (+$1.11)
• SOL +16.7% (+$0.35)
• SBE +11.9% (+$1.45)
• DTIL +11% (+$0.58)
• JEF +9.5% (+$1.63); U.S. LEVLOANS CALENDAR: Jefferies Finance Bank Meeting
• MREO +8.3% (+$0.23)
• MEI +6.8% (+$1.62); Methode Electronics Boosts Second Quarter Sales Forecast
• BBBY +6.3% (+$0.85); Bed Bath & Beyond Raised to Outperform at Baird
• OESX +5.8% (+$0.41)
• VVPR +4.8% (+$0.37)
• CODX +4.2% (+$0.57)
• BSY +4.2% (+$1.40)

Decliners

• GCI -15.6% (-$0.21)
• NKLA -11.1% (-$2.35); Nikola Cut to Underperform at Wedbush
• GLNG -9% (-$0.91); Florida SBA Backs Golar LNG on 5 of 10 Proposals at Sept. 24 AGM
• ACIU -7.3% (-$0.35)
• FROG -7.3% (-$5.50)
• DPHC -6.4% (-$1.57)
• MNOV -6.3% (-$0.38)
• PENN -5.8% (-$4.01); Penn National Cut to Neutral at Macquarie
• ACN -5.1% (-$11.7); Accenture Class A Raises Quarterly Dividend 10% to 88 cents/Shr
• VXRT -4.9% (-$0.35)
• HMC -4.3% (-$1.03)
• TTM -4% (-$0.35)
• GFI -4% (-$0.45)
• GMHI -3.8% (-$0.45)
• CDE -3.8% (-$0.26)
• SRNE -3.8% (-$0.36)
• KODK -3.5% (-$0.31)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC