Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Friday October 2, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  
8:30ET Employment Report*; 9:00ET Fed’s Harker speaks; 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index, Factory Orders; 1:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks

The September jobs report is expected to show a sharp deceleration in the pace of the recovery in the labor market. The consensus among economists
is for employers to have added 875,000 positions in the month, with the unemployment rate falling slightly to 8.2%.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:

• President Trump and First Lady Melania tested positive for COVID-19/Prominent people
  
  diagnosed
• Betfair suspended betting on the outcome of the U.S. election / Pence tests negative this morning
• “President Trump and the first lady have paid the price for his gamble to play down the COVID-19. The news shows the severity of the US’ pandemic situation;
  Editor and chief of China’s Global Times
• Former Hillary Clinton Spokeswoman Says She 'Hopes Donald Trump Dies' –
  
  Telegraph
• Brexit trade talks to go on until mid-October EU summit
  
• MERKEL: EU-CHINA SUMMIT WON'T HAPPEN THIS YEAR ANYMORE
  

Global stocks sold off and investors shed riskier assets after President Trump said he and his wife had tested positive for the coronavirus and
would isolate, four weeks before U.S. elections. Still, even before Trump’s diagnosis, investors had begun to fret that the hoped-for U.S. fiscal stimulus package had stalled in Washington.

EQUITIES:  

U.S. stock futures fell nearly 2% before trimming some losses as investors assessed the impact of the president's illness and quarantine for
financial markets. The White House already announced that Trump was canceling all public events, including a rally in Florida, on Friday. Normal virus protocols could keep him off the campaign trail at least 10 days. Trump’s diagnosis adds to gloomy developments
around the virus as big cities once again turn into hotspots with New York reporting the most new cases since May. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal measures are fading. House Democrats passed their $2.2 trillion stimulus plan, which will not progress in
the Senate, as talks continue between Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

December E-mini S&P futures -1.55%,
Nasdaq -2.2%%, Russell 2000 futures -1.8%, Dow futures -1.45%. SPX has initial support today around 3325, then 3281 (s/t .618).  

Nasdaq futures have held above the 50dma every day this week. A clean settle below it today would be a short term negative.

The energy sector has been lagging and we will look for the 38.50 area in XOP to be short term key support.

European equities retreated after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, fueling uncertainty a month before the U.S. election.
The Stoxx 600 index was down 0.6%, paring a drop of as much as 1.2%. Retail, oil and travel stocks led the declines, while construction and media shares advanced. Energy shares lost ground again today, down 1.6% and is set for its fifth straight weekly loss.
Euro zone inflation fell deeper into negative territory last month, raising pressure on the European Central Bank to add stimulus. Still, no ECB move is likely in October, but more stimulus is increasingly likely in December. The DAX is falling for the fourth
day, dropping 1%. Bayer AG had the largest drop, falling 4.5%. CAC -1%, Retail Sector -1.45%, Autos -1.25%, Construction +0.3%

Asian stocks fell, led by materials and health care, after rising in the last session. Australian shares shed more than 1%, declining further
from their modest losses initially in reaction to U.S. President Trump testing positive for the virus. The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed out a volatile session, a day after its worst-ever outage paralyzed the world’s third-largest equity market. India’s equity
markets were closed on Friday for a public holiday. Japan's Topix Index -1%; Nikkei 225 -0.7%; Australia's ASX 200 -1.4%; Jakarta Composite -0.9%

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries remain higher led by long end after fading from session lows reached in tandem with equity index futures after President Trump disclosed
positive test for Covid-19. Yields are still inside Wednesday’s ranges ahead of the September jobs report. Yields are lower by less than 2bp at long end of the curve, with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter.

METALS: 

Gold ticked higher and was on course for its best week in nearly two months as news of President Trump's positive test for COVID-19 sent investors
to safe-haven assets.  Spot gold edged up 0.1%, reversing losses from early Asian trade.

ENERGY:  

Oil prices extended losses to more than 4% after President Trump said he has tested positive for COVID-19, while agreement on a U.S. stimulus
package eluded negotiators amid ongoing worries about demand. Crude demand has been struggling to recover amid a resurgent coronavirus, while supply from OPEC+ continues to rise. Libya’s production has risen faster than analysts expected after the relaxation
of a blockade by the Libyan National Army. November WTI has initial key Fibonacci support around 36.56*

CURRENCIES:  

The US dollar and yen rose after U.S. President Trump’s positive test for COVID-19 spooked investors, just a month out from November’s presidential
election.  The yen made its sharpest gain in more than a month to reach a one-week high. The Australian dollar, which serves as a liquid proxy for risk, was down 0.5%.  Losses in the euro were more modest. Sterling advanced after Downing Street announced British
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and ECB President Ursula von der Leyen would meet on Saturday to discuss next steps in Brexit talks.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• NNOX +25.2% (+$6.04)
• IDT +16.3% (+$1.12)
• CODX +10.2% (+$1.32); Covid-19 Vaccine Plays Jump After President Trump Infected
• PACB +8.6% (+$0.90); Pacific Bio Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $15
• TWLO +8% (+$20.7); Twilio Jumps After It Dazzles With Strong Forecast: Street Wrap
• VXRT +7.7% (+$0.53); Vaxart 2.49M Share Block Trades at $6.86
• NUS +7.5% (+$3.82); Nu Skin Prelim Third Quarter Revenue Beats Estimates
• APT +7.4% (+$1.13)
• IVZ +6.7% (+$0.75); Activist Trian Builds 9.9% Stakes in Invesco and Janus Henderson
• ORPH +5.6% (+$0.59)
• INO +4% (+$0.47)
• SRNE +3.8% (+$0.41)

Decliners

• RDS/B -2% (-$0.48)
• JD -2% (-$1.61)
• LI -2.1% (-$0.36)
• STOR -2.2% (-$0.62); STORE Capital Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James; PT $34
• JKS -2.2% (-$0.95)
• STM -2.2% (-$0.74)
• PDD -2.3% (-$1.73)
• BILI -2.4% (-$1.01)
• BZUN -2.5% (-$0.85)
• TOT -2.5% (-$0.85)
• YY -2.7% (-$2.22)
• MESO -38.7% (-$7.18)
• DPHC -9.3% (-$2.31)
• CBAT -9.1% (-$0.23)
• RGS -8.5% (-$0.53)
• BQ -8.4% (-$0.54)
• ENLV -8.2% (-$0.72)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC