Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Friday November 6, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   
8:30ET Employment Report; 10:00ET Wholesale Inventories; 3:00ET Consumer Credit

The US labor market is expected to have extended its rebound last month, with the median estimate from economists projecting 593,000 positions
added in October. The unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 7.6%.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:

• Biden Erases Trump Lead in Georgia and expanded his lead in Nevada
  
• US Postal Service says 1,700 ballots found in Pennsylvania facilities, 500 discovered in North Carolina during sweeps
• Tesla unveils 'Tesla Tequila' for $250, sold-out on website
  
• Police arrested two men in Philadelphia after receiving a tip that they traveled from Virginia with AR-15s and made threats against the Philadelphia Convention
  Center, where mail-in ballots are still being counted

Global stocks were little changed but near a record high on bets that a divided US Congress would hinder government borrowing, which could pave
the way for even more central bank stimulus. World markets have benefitted this week on the view that a divided US Congress could delay major policy changes. MSCI's all-country index was flat, still close to the record reached in September. The US became the
first country to top 100,000 coronavirus infections in a single day with Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana among states reporting record Covid-19 infections. Surging new infections in Russia put a heavy strain on hospitals in certain regions.  There is
little sign of the outbreak in Europe coming under control, with France posting a record number of new cases while Austria and Italy reported record Covid deaths over the last 24 hours.

EQUITIES: 
 

Future contracts on US equities indexes retreated, paring some of this week’s gains as the vote count continued amid mounting legal complaints
from President Trump’s campaign. S&P 500 futures retreated after climbing almost 2% Thursday, heading for its best week since April. Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which is up over 9% this week, declined 1%.  Votes are still being tallied in a handful
of key US states, with Joe Biden taking the lead in Georgia. Republicans seem set to retain control of the Senate after also making inroads in the House.

December E-mini S&P futures -1.1%,
Nasdaq -1.25%%, Russell 2000 futures -1%, Dow futures -0.9%. SPX had its fourth straight day of more than 1% gains.  The last time that happened was October 1982.

QQQ is down 1.15% pre-market after rallying over 10% from last week’s low.

Small caps outperformed yesterday as IWM vs SPY remains short term positive above the 200dma in the pair

European stocks drifted lower after a strong rally this week as Italy and France posted a record number of coronavirus cases.  Auto and bank
stocks were among the biggest decliners in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, with Deutsche Lufthansa falling 6% amid a resurgence in coronavirus cases. IT services firm Netcompany Group slumped more than 8% after a downbeat earnings report. On a positive note, luxury
goods maker Cie Financiere Richemont surged as much as 12% after sales rebounded in China. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, CAC -1%, DAX -1.2%, FTSE 100 -0.25%:  Autos -2.1%, Banks -1.6%

Most markets in the Asian region were up, with Indonesia's Jakarta Composite advancing 1.4% and India's Sensex Index rising 1.2%, while China's
Shanghai Composite slid 0.2%. Indian shares closed at their highest level since mid-January, boosted by gains in Reliance Industries after the country’s most valuable company secured more funding for its retail business. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
posted its biggest weekly advance since early 2016, on increasing hopes of decreased tensions between China and the United States with a Biden victory. Japan’s Nikkei index gained 0.9%, at its highest level in 29 years, as investors hoped a gridlock in the
US Congress during a possible Joe Biden presidency would be able to stall major policy changes.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries were little changed after Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates near zero yesterday and ahead of US payrolls data due today. 
Yields remain lower on the week after Wednesday’s bull-flattening rally spurred by election results that curbed bets on large fiscal stimulus.

30 year yield is holding above its 200dma while TLT has its 200 day as closing key resistance.

METALS: 

Gold headed for its biggest weekly gain since July as Joe Biden tightened his grip on the race for the White House, while investors also weighed
prospects for further Federal Reserve stimulus. Gold broke out of a narrow trading range seen over the past month as uncertainty over the election and renewed stimulus hopes boosted demand for the haven. Copper heading for a weekly advance on the back of recent
dollar weakness.

Look for December Gold futures to test the 1998 area.

ENERGY:  

Oil fell as a surging coronavirus and new lockdowns in Europe sparked concern, while markets remained on edge over drawn-out vote counting in
the US election. Crude is ending a rough week with a decline after gains in the first half as the demand outlook turns grimmer.  As refiners continue to struggle, Royal Dutch Shell said it will shut its Convent facility in Louisiana. It comes as the company
plans to shrink its refining business after Covid-19 hammered global demand and profits.

WTI continues to hold below the key moving averages and has initial support at 37.17 (.382 retrace of the recent rally).

CURRENCIES:  

The dollar sank to its lowest level in over two months pressured by the decline in long-term Treasury yields due to expectations for less fiscal
spending while vote counting for the contentious US election dragged on. Investors are betting that Democrat Joe Biden will become the next president but Republicans will retain control of the Senate, which will make it difficult for the Democrats to pass
the larger fiscal spending package they have been pushing. The dollar fell further against the Japanese yen, close to an eight-month low.  Japanese Prime Minister Suga has vowed to work closely with overseas authorities to keep currency moves stable, because
a strong yen is widely viewed as a threat to Japan’s economy. The pound fluctuated between modest gains and losses, as optimism that a Brexit trade deal will be reached offset concern over the negative impact of a nationwide lockdown.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• GPRO +18.7% (+$1.24); GoPro 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
• GLUU +14.4% (+$1)
• HGEN +12.1% (+$1.35)
• TTD +11.5% (+$74.7); Trade Desk 4Q Revenue Forecast Beats Estimates
• FTCH +11.1% (+$4.21); Richemont Venture May Lead to Farfetch, YNAP Tie-Up: Bernstein
• COTY +11.1% (+$0.37); Coty First-Quarter Cont. Ops Net Revenue Decline Decelerates
• NET +10.9% (+$6.30); Cloudflare Jumps After 4Q Sales View Tops Highest Estimate
• INSG +9.6% (+$0.90); Inseego Climbs After Revenue Beats Wall Street Projections
• Z +8.8% (+$9.10)
• TLRY +8.7% (+$0.68)
• DVAX +8% (+$0.33)
• ORBC +7.8% (+$0.42)
• YELP +7.6% (+$1.67); Yelp 3Q Net Revenue Beats Estimates
• MTG +6.2% (+$0.63); MGIC Investment, Halozyme Therapeutics to Join S&P Midcap 400
• DISH +5.9% (+$1.61); Dish 3Q EPS Beats Estimates
• UI +5.8% (+$11.4); Ubiquiti 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
• ROKU +5.7% (+$12.9); Roku Targets Spike as Results Show Streaming Gains: Street Wrap
• HEAR +5.2% (+$1.08); Turtle Beach Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates

Decliners

• TAL -2% (-$1.45)
• NIU -2.1% (-$0.67); Niu Technologies ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi
• ASMB -45% (-$7.15); Assembly Biosciences Falls as Vebicorvir Study Disappoints
• GBT -31.2% (-$18.8); Global Blood Downgraded With Blockbuster Potential Questioned
• MTEM -27.3% (-$2.96)
• EPZM -21.4% (-$2.90); Epizyme 3Q Collaboration Rev. Misses Estimates
• TRUE -13.1% (-$0.66); TrueCar 4Q Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
• HOFV -12.9% (-$0.44)
• OTRK -9.8% (-$6.70)
• AYX -8.9% (-$12.9); Alteryx 4Q Adjusted EPS Forecast Misses Estimates
• EA -7.6% (-$9.73); Electronic Arts’s Uninspiring Guide Spurs Downgrade: Street Wrap
• MAXR -7.5% (-$2.13); Maxar Technologies Cut to Hold at TD; PT $31
• ALTM -6.3% (-$1.93)
• NLOK -5% (-$1.09); NortonLifeLock 3Q Adjusted EPS Forecast Beats Estimates
• PTON -4.9% (-$6.26); Peloton Analysts Lift Targets, Say Demand Surge Is Good Problem
• CZR -4.9% (-$2.74)
• LI -4.7% (-$1.32); Li Auto Recalls 10,469 Vehicles in China Due to Safety Concern
• DBX -4.6% (-$0.93)
• HYLN -4.5% (-$1.05)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC