Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Wednesday November 11, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   

The US Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  Veterans Day

• Trudeau says Canada will not bow to China's 'coercive diplomacy'
  
• Hong Kong pro-democracy lawmakers to resign as Beijing moves to quash opposition
  
• Russia says its Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine is 92% effective
  
• CDC calls on Americans to wear masks
  
  link
• The ineffectiveness of face masks in stemming the spread of Covid-19 
  link

Global stocks gained as news of a working COVID-19 vaccine outweighed worries over surging infections, fueling rotation towards beaten down shares
and out of work-from-home plays. Defensive shares including health care stocks advanced in Europe, helping prolong a global rally in equities. Asia’s tech sell-off follows moves this week out of expensive technology stocks in the U.S. that had become synonymous
with the stay-at-home trade, and into shares depressed by the economic impact of lockdowns. China’s top legislative body approved legislation requiring Hong Kong lawmakers to be "patriots," a move to curb debate in the city's democratic institution. Four members
of the pro-democracy bloc were disqualified under the new rules, which led to the entire opposition camp resigning this morning.

EQUITIES: 
 

In the US the tech picture was more positive, with Nasdaq 100 futures rebounding over 1%. Futures contracts on all the major US equity indexes
rallied alongside gains in Europe. Still, the coronavirus is roaring back in the US, with hospitalizations reaching a record and cases topping 1 million in the first 10 days of November. A public vaccination campaign could begin by spring, Health and Human
Services Secretary Alex Azar said. Carnival rose 3.9% in the pre-market session, while Pfizer was up 1.5%.   

December E-mini S&P futures +0.85%, Nasdaq +1.25%, Russell 2000 futures +0.6%, Dow futures +0.7%. SPX has initial short term resistance at 3563
today (.382 retrace), then 3595* (.618).

QQQ is up 1.3% pre-market after holding the 50 day moving average yesterday, which has been a short term pivot of late.

Small caps have been outperforming, but we will look for a pause today in IWM vs SPY after hitting the first long term key Fibonacci retracement
yesterday.

Value +2.7% yesterday while growth gained 0.9%. Using the 200 day moving average here as pivotal point resistance.

S&P Oil & Gas E&P ETF (XOP) is up another 1% in pre-market trading after gaining over 3% yesterday. Looking for a test of the 200dma, which has
been pivotal.

European equities rose for a third day, though a recent rally across value stocks lost steam as investors bought back into
more defensive areas of the market like health care, consumer stocks and utilities.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1% to its highest level since late February, up 0.8%. Among the big movers, German IT supplier Bechtle soared 12% after hiking its earnings
forecast, while auto-parts supplier Continental declined as it sees profitability shrinking. A 5% slump in ABN Amro Bank shares weighed on the banking gauge, after the Dutch lender’s results. Some of today’s biggest decliners in Europe, such as mall owner Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (-8%)
and aerospace company Rolls-Royce Holdings are among the week’s top performers after investors snapped up stocks whose businesses have been hit by lockdowns and travel restrictions. Healthcare +1.9%, Utilities +1.9%, Retail +1.7%, Travel & Leisure +1.3%, FTSE
100 +1%, CAC +0.5%

Markets in the Asian region were mixed, with Australia's ASX 200 and Japan's Topix gaining 1.7%, while China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s
shares slid. Utilities and finance sectors led gains, and a tech selloff in China deepened following Beijing’s crackdown on Internet and fintech firms. The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking the IT sector dipped 8%, the worst intraday loss since November
2008. Equity gauges in Japan, Korea and Australia rose more than 1.3% despite the downdraft in Asian tech. The Nikkei stock average has jumped to its highest in almost 3 decades and has become one of the developed world’s top performers in the week since Democrat
Joe Biden won the US election. Investors are betting that a less fractious global trade policy under Biden will lead to a stronger economic rebound.  Indian shares ended higher for an eighth straight session, hitting record highs driven by drug maker and metal
stocks.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures are off the session lows, following bunds higher after a sale of Germany’s EU1b 0% 2050 bond.  The cash
market is closed for Veteran’s Day holiday. US auctions resume Thursday with record size $27 billion for 30-year.  U.K. 30-year bond yields surpassed 1% for the first time since March on market optimism over a vaccine and the chances for a Brexit deal.

TLT has fallen since touching its 200dma last week and is approaching the long term .382 retracement support

METALS: 

Gold eased slightly, as concerns over the global roll-out of a potential vaccine and bets for further stimulus offset strong appetite for riskier
assets and a firmer dollar. Federal Reserve policymakers said on Tuesday that surging coronavirus cases threatened to slow U.S. economic growth once more in coming months and that more targeted government aid was needed.

ENERGY:  
OPEC CUTS DEMAND ESTIMATE FOR ITS CRUDE AGAIN AMID NEW LOCKDOWNS

Oil prices climbed to a two-month high as hopes of an effective COVID-19 vaccine continued to bolster sentiment and after an industry report
showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected.  The overall fuel demand outlook remains clouded as coronavirus restrictions are reimposed in Europe and the United States, offsetting a rebound in Asian economies where consumption has almost returned
to pre-COVID levels.

WTI is testing the .618 retracement of the year while Brent futures gain some momentum above its 200 day moving average.

RBOB has been trading within two key Fibonacci retracements and will likely retest the .618 retrace again. Nat Gas futures holding the 200 day
moving average is a positive short term.

CURRENCIES:  

The US dollar gained 0.4% as optimism about a potential coronavirus vaccine was offset by worries about how the drug will
be delivered and by a surge of new infections in the United States. The biggest mover in the G10 space was the Kiwi dollar which leapt nearly 1% to a 19-month high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold, as traders scaled back bets that the
central bank would move to negative interest rates. The pound edged higher on hopes for a Brexit deal and as investors judged that a possible vaccine would be a particular boon to the UK, which has seen its economy ravaged by the coronavirus.  

GBPUSD is gaining some momentum today above the s/t .618 retracement.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• FPRX +362.5% (+$19.4); Five Prime Surges as Analysts See Upside on Chemo Data
• FUBO +30.4% (+$4.75); FuboTV Surges After Raising Fourth-Quarter Forecasts
• GNFT +23% (+$0.91)
• CLPT +14.2% (+$0.97)
• KDMN +12.7% (+$0.42); Kadmon Holdings Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities USA; PT $13
• SMMT +12.1% (+$0.41); Summit Therapeutics CEO Duggan Buys $47 Million of Shares
• APG +11.7% (+$1.83)
• SURF +9.2% (+$0.83); Surface Oncology Rises on Fast-Track Designation for Cancer Drug
• BRKS +8.6% (+$5.12); Brooks Automation Raised to Overweight at Stephens
• LPI +8.2% (+$0.98)
• VSTO +7.3% (+$1.50)
• CHA +6.7% (+$2.26)
• LYFT +5.6% (+$2.03); Lyft Cost Discipline Offsets Tough Rideshare Market: Street Wrap
• HUYA +5.3% (+$1.05); Huya Gains After Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
• CPE +5.1% (+$0.34)
• CODX +5.1% (+$0.60)
• GME +4.5% (+$0.50)

Decliners

• EGAN -26.2% (-$4.44); EGain Falls as Forecast for Current Quarter Misses Estimates
• MODN -16.8% (-$5.97); Model N 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates
• REV -9.6% (-$0.84); Revlon Shares Soar Ahead of Deadline to Avert Debt Default
• DDOG -8.2% (-$7.59); Datadog’s Decelerating Growth Spurs Downgrade: Street Wrap
• TLRY -6.4% (-$0.53); Tilray Cut to Sell at Stifel
• INO -5.2% (-$0.60)
• BIGC -3.9% (-$2.90); BigCommerce Holdings to Offer 1m Shrs, Holder 4m Shrs
• ABR -3.6% (-$0.51); Arbor Realty Trust Offering 7m Shrs
• KKR -3.3% (-$1.27); KKR Seeks INR6.14b Loan for India Solar Energy Project
• NIO -3.1% (-$1.30)
• KCAC -3% (-$0.43)
• LI -3% (-$0.76)
• RYAAY -2.9% (-$3.16)
• ING -2.9% (-$0.25)
• PDD -2.4% (-$2.50); Down $290 Billion, China Tech Investors Mull Nightmare Scenarios
• RKT -2.4% (-$0.52); Rocket Cos. 3Q Origination Volume $88.98B, Announces $1b Buyback

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC