Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Monday April 18, 2022                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   
10:00ET NAHB home builders’ index; 4:00ET Fed’s Bullard speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:   

• Two British fighters captured by Moscow’s forces in Ukraine have appeared on Russian state TV and asked to be exchanged for a pro-Russian politician

A cautious overall investor mood weighed on global shares as markets in Australia, Hong Kong and much of Europe remain shut for Easter.  Price
pressures are being fanned by supply-chain snarls from China’s Covid restrictions and disruptions to commodity flows due to the war. Ukrainian authorities said missiles struck Lviv and explosions rocked other cities as Russian forces kept up their bombardments
after claiming near full control of the port of Mariupol.  A jump in energy costs highlighted inflation concerns, as US natural gas prices surged to the highest intraday level in more than 13 years.  Container and bulk ships are skipping Asia’s largest refueling
hub in Singapore as delays at ports in China and elsewhere prompt vessels to reschedule stops. The situation has put more pressure on already strained global supply chains.                                  

US EQUITIES: 

US equity futures slipped as investors weighed the prospect of faster policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Bank of America and BNY Mellon
posted earnings that were generally ahead of estimates.                                     

E-mini S&P futures -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 futures -0.35%, Dow futures -0.15%.

In premarket trading, DiDi Global (DIDI) tumbled by as much as 24% as the company said it will hold an extraordinary general meeting on May 23
to vote on delisting its shares from the New York Stock Exchange. Twitter rises over 4% after Elon Musk said the economic interests of the board are not aligned with shareholders as the social media company took steps to ward off his takeover attempt.  Redbox
Entertainment (RDBX) fell after reporting disappointing earnings results.

Markets are closed in Europe for Easter Monday.       

Asian stocks dropped in holiday-thinned trading amid continued concern over the impact of inflation and efforts to contain
it on global economic growth. In China, economic data was mixed, while first-quarter gross domestic product growth accelerated, retail sales shrank in March for the first time since 2020.  China cut the reserve requirement ratio on Friday but refrained from
lowering interest rates in a cautious approach to policy easing. Chinese banks are due to decide on the loan prime rates on April 20.  Officials in Shanghai  published plans to resume production after a prolonged lockdown, recommending businesses adopt so-called
closed-loop management, where workers live on-site and are tested regularly. South Korean travel and movie theater stocks jumped as the government lifted most social distancing rules for the first time in two years. India’s Sensex led declines, down 2%. MSCI
Asia Pacific Index fell 1%, Nikkei 225 -1.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Kospi -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
                                       

Treasury yields rose as investors look forward to speeches by Fed policy makers this week for new clues on whether it will
raise interest rates by a half point in May to curb price pressures. Government bonds dropped across the curve, with the two-year yield up more than 4 basis points to 2.49%. The 10-year yield rose three basis points to 2.86%. 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are wider
but remain inside last week’s ranges.  Regional Fed chiefs, including James Bullard, Charles Evans and Mary Daly, will discuss the economy this week, while Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to make final public remarks on Thursday before the central bank’s
pre-meeting quiet period.        

METALS: 
                               

Gold rose to a five-week high as the war in Europe, elevated inflation, and the risk of a US recession boosted demand for
the haven asset. Bullion’s advance comes even as 10-year Treasury yields surge toward 3%.  Spot gold rose as much as 0.8%, silver +1.5%.      

ENERGY:     

Oil fluctuated as worries over slowing demand in China balanced support from concern over tight global supply and the deepening
Ukraine crisis. There is an increasing risk that Putin’s demand for gas payments in rubles will lead to a de facto gas embargo in Europe as lawyers in the bloc draft a finding showing payments in the Russian currency would violate sanctions. Russian production
declined by 7.5% in the first half of April from March, Interfax reported on Friday.  Adding to supply-side pressure,  Libya closed its biggest oil field due to protests and warned of further outages. President Biden is dramatically curtailing US public land
available for new oil and gas development as his administration restarts leasing with new environmental protections. When the government holds auctions, expected later this year, roughly 80% less land will be available for oil and gas, according to the Interior
Department. Energy companies also will have to pay higher royalties for the oil and gas they extract from the newly leased lands.  U.S. natural gas prices surged to the highest intraday level in over 13 years as robust demand tests drillers’ ability to expand
supplies.  WTI -0.15%, Brent +0.4%.                                    

CURRENCIES:   
 

The dollar extended its advance for a 12th day versus the yen, the longest winning streak on record.  Bank of Japan Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda said a weak yen is good for the economy, although a rapid drop can disrupt corporate planning. The basic stance of the central bank to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels is diverging sharply from most global central banks outside of
China that are stepping up the pace of interest rate hikes.  US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.5%, USDCHF +0.9%.

Bitcoin dropped 3% to its lowest level in more than a month as cryptocurrency continued to be hurt by investors’ risk aversion
amid signs of muted new interest in the coins. 

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
  

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

UPGRADES:

• Biogen (BIIB) raised to overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $265
• Comerica (CMA) raised to neutral at Baird; PT $85
• Gap (GPS) raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
• HB Fuller (FUL) raised to buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $85
• Zions (ZION) raised to neutral at Baird; PT $60

DOWNGRADES:

• AMD (AMD) cut to hold at Erste Group
• Aptiv (APTV) cut to underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $90
• Axalta (AXTA) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $27
• BioCryst (BCRX) cut to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $13
• CareTrust REIT (CTRE) cut to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $17
• Core Laboratories (CLB) cut to underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $21.30
• Goodfood Market (FOOD CN) cut to hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$2.75
• Iamgold (IMG CN) cut to market perform at BMO; PT C$3.48
• Macerich (MAC) cut to underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $14
• Newmark (NMRK) cut to neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $15
• Progressive (PGR) cut to underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $100
• Qualcomm (QCOM) cut to neutral at SMBC Nikko; PT $155
• Red Robin (RRGB) cut to market perform at Raymond James
• Redbox Entertainment (RDBX) cut to neutral at BTIG
• SLM (SLM) cut to equal-weight at Stephens; PT $19
• Sabra Health (SBRA) cut to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $14
• Sirius XM (SIRI) cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $7
• Wendy’s (WEN) cut to market perform at BMO; PT $22

INITIATIONS:

• CES Energy (CEU CN) rated new sector outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$3.30
• EverQuote (EVER) rated new buy at B Riley; PT $20
• Gossamer Bio (GOSS) rated new outperform at Raymond James; PT $19
• Nutrien (NTR CN) reinstated buy at Erste Group
• Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) rated new buy at Roth Capital; PT $20
• SVB Financial (SIVB) reinstated hold at Erste Group
• Shopify (SHOP CN) rated new outperform at CICC; PT C$923.93
• Tuya ADRs (TUYA) rated new buy at Huatai Research; PT $5.22
• Tyler Tech (TYL) rated new buy at Loop Capital; PT $520

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC