Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Thursday, November 12, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES: 
8:30ET Weekly Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Core CPI; 11:45ET Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, BOE’s Bailey speak; 12:00ET Quarles appears before House panel; 1:00ET Fed’s Evans speaks, 30 Year Bond Auction; 2:00ET Federal Budget

Online ECB Forum today including ECB President Christine Lagarde, Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:

• UK says China has breached treaty by quashing opposition in Hong Kong
  
• Moderna may report results of the trial of its vaccine candidate within days
• GlaxoSmithKline And Medicago Announce Start Of Phase 2/3 Clinical Trials Of Adjuvanted Covid-19 Vaccine Candidate
  
• Trump eyes digital media empire to take on Fox News: Axios
  
• Georgia ordered a recount Wednesday that will end by November 20
  
• Biden’s transition team includes people who favor stronger government regulation
  
• How a once-dismissed idea became a leading technology in the Covid vaccine race
  STAT

The rally that has added $6 trillion to global stocks this month slowed, with investors selling cyclicals and moving back to tech shares perceived
as safer amid a deteriorating coronavirus situation. Fears that an intensifying pandemic will curb the economic rebound threaten this month’s almost 10% surge in global equities. Investors are keeping an eye on new restrictions emerging from Hong Kong to New
York. Global deaths jumped by more than 12,000, while new daily cases set a record in Japan and the US. France overtook Russia as the worst affected country in Europe, while Italy surpassed the 1-million infections mark to become one of the top 10 worst-affected
countries globally. On the vaccine front, Moderna said its trial has reached a key target for analyzing the shot’s effectiveness.

EQUITIES:
 

US stock futures slipped as new restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus sparked concerns about further damage to the economy. Sentiment
is being dented as health experts are raising questions about when a vaccine may become available for widespread use. Hospital beds are filling up, with New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota and Iowa recording the biggest increases over the past
week.  S&P 500 futures edged down 0.4% extending a choppy week of trading which sent the broad-market index on Wednesday to its second-highest close in history. Nasdaq 100 contracts swung between gains and losses. Walt Disney, Cisco Systems. and Applied Materials
are among the companies reporting results.

December E-mini S&P futures -0.4%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 futures -0.8%, Dow futures -0.8%. SPX has initial short term KEY resistance at
3595* (.618). 3488.50 area is first good support.

Small caps took a breather yesterday from their outperformance, but IWM vs QQQ remains above the 200 day moving average in the pair. IWM vs SPY
hit key long term resistance.

Growth outperformed Value yesterday as the 200dma in R2000 Growth vs Value held (Value down 1.25% while growth was up 1.2%).

European stocks headed for their first decline of the week as earnings reports disappointed and
as surging coronavirus infections raised doubts about a quicker economic rebound.  Siemens slumped after issuing a cautious 2021
outlook and proposed cutting its dividend. One bright spot was Burberry Group, which rose as much as 5.8% after sales dropped less than expected. The Stoxx Europe 600 retreated with banking shares leading the drop among sectors, down 1.8%, following its best
3 day winning streak since the financial crisis in 2009.  The Stoxx 600 is down 0.7% after gains of more than 13% this month that had set it on course for its best monthly performance ever. Technology sector +0.3%, DAX -1.1%, CAC -1.25%, FTSE 100 -0.9%

Asian stocks were little changed, with communications rising and finance retreating. The Topix lost 0.15%, while Japan’s
Nikkei Index closed near a 29-1/2-year high, +0.7%, as technology shares tracked their US peers higher. Goldman and Nomura boosted their outlooks for Japanese stocks. Indian shares snapped an eight-day winning streak as investors sold off banking and financial
stocks, despite their finance minister announcing a new set of stimulus measures. South Korean shares also snapped an eight-session rally to end lower by 0.4%, as the initial euphoria around a potential coronavirus vaccine started to fade. Hong Kong stocks
ended 0.2% lower after data showed that new bank loans in China last month fell more than expected. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% with the CSI300 banks index losing 1.1%.

FIXED INCOME:

A record $27 billion sale of 30-year bonds may weigh on the market today. Trading in cash Treasuries was shut yesterday, suggesting pre-auction
positioning session is likely. Tuesday’s 10-year sale produced strong pricing, but also included a heavy allotment for dealers that raised concerns. The latest bond sell off has three main drivers: a post-election reflation trade on hopes for US fiscal stimulus,
vaccine progress spurring speculation of an earlier return to normality and central banks signaling a reluctance to pursue negative rates.

10 year yield is holding at the 50 week moving average

TLT vs SPY is nearing the January significant low

METALS:

Gold rose as market optimism over a potential COVID-19 vaccine gave way to concerns over the logistics of its eventual roll-out,
though prices were supported by expectations of further monetary stimulus. Gold prices are still down about 4% so far this week after Monday’s encouraging coronavirus vaccine trial data from Pfizer drove a sharp retreat in safe-haven metals.  1848 area remains
key support in December Gold.

ENERGY:

Crude Oil steadied as the IEA warned the oil market won’t revive in the near term. The International Energy Agency cut forecasts
for global oil demand amid new lockdown measures and cautioned that the vaccine breakthrough won’t quickly revive markets. Any attempt by OPEC+ to restore partial supplies from January will keep inventories elevated during the first quarter. The picture was
partly brightened by improved expectations for China and India, where the IEA raised its demand forecast.

Although crude oil is holding above 200 day moving averages in Brent and WTI, the .618 Fibonacci retracement area is again
offering some key resistance. $39.46 is initial key fib support.

CURRENCIES:

The dollar is slightly lower as investors tempered expectations about a COVID-19 vaccine that is unlikely to avert a grim winter in the United
States as the pandemic’s second wave intensifies. The Pound fell as trade talks between Britain and the European Union seemed set to drag on past yet another deadline. Larger moves were held in check as investors await speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at a central banking forum.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• FOSL +26.5% (+$1.58); Fossil Soars After Revenue Beats Forecast on Strength in China
• PDD +21.7% (+$24.2); Pinduoduo Poised for Record After 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
• FPRX +13.3% (+$2.40); Five Prime Quadruples on Positive Drug Combo Data: Street Wrap
• BW +11.9% (+$0.32)
• IGT +11.4% (+$1.14); International Game Rises After 3Q Results Beat Estimates (1)
• HIMX +7.6% (+$0.31); Himax Technologies 3Q Adj Earnings Per ADS Beats Est.
• VRNA +7.4% (+$0.51)
• XPEV +6.8% (+$2.29); XPeng Jumps on Positive 3Q Gross Margin, 4Q Revenue Outlook
• BZUN +5.7% (+$2.26)
• LI +5.7% (+$1.42)
• ACCO +5.5% (+$0.37); Acco Brands Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $12
• RUN +5.2% (+$2.80)
• GRWG +5.1% (+$1.06); GrowGeneration Climbs After Raising Full-Year Sales Guidance
• DADA +4.4% (+$1.38); Dada Nexus ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $36
• JD +4.2% (+$3.47); China Clampdown on Big Tech Puts More Billionaires on Notice
• ZUO +3.9% (+$0.39)
• VIPS +3.8% (+$0.80)
• YALA +3.8% (+$0.35)
• FUTU +3.7% (+$1.36)
• LMND +3.6% (+$2.10); SoftBank-Backed Lemonade Slides on Disappointing Outlook

Decliners

• VRM -13% (-$5.30); Vroom 3Q Adjusted Loss Per Share 29c, Est. Loss/Share 37c
• RVLV -9.1% (-$2.05); Revolve to See Pressure Amid Fewer In-Person Events: Street Wrap
• TELL -4.8% (-$0.06); India’s Petronet LNG Says No Progress on Deal With Tellurian
• CNK -4.4% (-$0.58)
• TCON -4.2% (-$0.31)
• MAC -4.1% (-$0.35)
• SPR -3.4% (-$0.94)
• AA -3.4% (-$0.54); Alcoa Reinstated Sell at Goldman;
• CPE -3.3% (-$0.22)
• TLRY -3.2% (-$0.26); Tilray Cut to Sell at Stifel
• ABCM -3.2% (-$0.60)
• UAA -3.1% (-$0.45); Under Armour New Sector Perform at RBC on ‘Intriguing Setup’
• OXY -2.9% (-$0.35); Occidental Cut at JPMorgan on Weaker 2021 Cash Flow Guidance
• HSBC -2.9% (-$0.74)
• EQ -2.8% (-$0.14); Equillium Rebounds From 4-Month Low as Leerink Sees ‘Busy 2021’
• PLUG -2.7% (-$0.63); Plug Power Social Media Volume Surges; Sentiment Is Positive
• RCL -2.6% (-$1.87)
• SAVE -2.6% (-$0.50)
• NCLH -2.6% (-$0.50)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC