Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Tuesday April 19, 2022                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   
8:30ET Building permits, Housing Starts;  12:05ET Fed’s Evans (non-voter) speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:   

• Greece has seized a Russian tanker off the island of Evoia
• Bank of Russia will challenge in court U.S. and European sanctions freezing its reserves
  
• Redfin Reports Nearly One-Third of Homeowners Have a Mortgage Rate Far Below Today’s Level, Prompting Some to Stay Put
  
• New polling shows that majority of Americans do not think criminals will obey federal gun control laws

Global shares slipped as government bonds extend declines. German and UK 10-year yields climbed to the highest since 2015 as bonds across Europe
plunged.  Disruptions to supply chains from China’s lockdowns and to commodity flows from the war are keeping pressure on central banks to rein in runaway prices at a time when global growth is seen likely to slow. The PBOC announced measures yesterday to
help businesses hit by Covid-19, as the latest economic data started to show the impact of extended lockdowns. Investors are awaiting further easing with the release of China’s loan prime rates tomorrow. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said Moscow
had launched a new campaign focused on conquering the Donbas region. Biden will hold a call with key allies today to discuss Ukraine amid efforts to coordinate supplies of heavy weapons to Kyiv.    

US EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slightly higher as investors prepare for the next barrage of earnings that will help them assess the impact of the Ukraine
war and a spike in inflation on company financials. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 erased early gains to trade lower after US stocks ended little changed on Monday.                                       

E-mini S&P futures +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.25%, Russell 2000 futures +0.25%, Dow futures +0.15%.

Twitter continues to be in focus, with news after the close Monday that Apollo Global is considering backing a potential deal and could provide
Elon Musk or another bidder like private-equity firm Thoma Bravo with equity or debt. Johnson & Johnson cut its annual profit forecast while suspending its guidance for Covid-19 vaccine sales because of unclear demand and global supply surplus. Travelers beats
analyst estimates on record underwriting results. Acadia Pharma (ACAD) shares fell 8% and will likely face near-term pressure following latest data from a chronic pain trial, Morgan Stanley said in note. Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) surges as much as 35.5% on
expectations of potential FDA action on the new drug application for its depression treatment in the second quarter. Plug Power (PLUG) jumps 7% after announcing an agreement with Walmart for liquid green hydrogen. Super Micro (SMCI) Computer shares are up
15% after the maker of server and storage systems reported profit and sales that beat estimates. Regeneron agreed to buy Checkmate Pharmaceuticals (CMPI +330%)at an all-cash price of $10.50 per share. Blackstone is increasing its investment in student housing
as the US emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic, agreeing to buy American Campus Communities in a cash deal.   

European shares fall as markets reopen after a 4-day break, with all sectors are in the red, barring energy.  The Stoxx 600 is down 1.25%, DAX
-0.8%, CAC -1.2%. The FTSE 100 outperforms, dropping 0.4%.  Healthcare, consumer products and media are the worst performing sectors. Food delivery shares lead European tech lower on rising yields.  Energy shares were led higher by TotalEnergies SE on a positive
first quarter report. The outcome of an uncomfortably tight French presidential race this Sunday and quarterly earnings reports due this month will be the next catalysts expected to give the market direction after a rough start to the year.  Healthcare -2%,
Food & Bev -1.7%, Media -1.65%, Energy +0.9%.          

Asian stocks were mostly lower as continued concerns over China’s regulatory crackdowns and the prospect of aggressive monetary-policy
tightening by the Federal Reserve weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, with Chinese technology shares including Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags after Beijing announced a “clean-up” of the video industry. Hong Kong stocks were
the worst performers around the region as trading resumed after Easter holidays.  China’s blue-chip index dropped as investors assessed measures to tackle economic headwinds from Covid-led lockdowns. Hong Kong technology index declined 3.8% on ongoing concerns
over regulation. Equities gained in Japan as the yen extended its longest losing streak in at least half a century. Shares of Australian lenders extended advances after the RBA said quicker inflation and a pickup in wages growth have moved up the likely timing
of rate hikes. Indian shares wiped out the session’s gains in the final hour of trade, with selling seen across the board after Russia said it was starting a new stage of military offensive in Ukraine.  South Korea’s Kospi +0.95%, Japan’s Topix +0.8%, Taiwan
+0.55%, ASX 200 +0.55%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index -2.3%, Vietnam -1.8%, Sensex -1.2%, China’s CSI 300 -0.75%.

FIXED INCOME: 
                                       

Treasuries are lower as US trading gets under way with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield touching 2.9%, a three year
high. Yields on 10-year US inflation linked bonds held near the two-year highs they reached on Monday and are within touching distance of turning positive for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. Yield curve continues to steepen with yields beyond
the 5-year higher by 3bp-4bp. The Fed looks likely to raise its interest rate by 50 basis points next month and a 75 basis point hike hasn’t been ruled out.  Hawkish Fed member James Bullard repeated his case yesterday for raising rates to 3.5% by year-end,
adding a 75 basis point hike should not be discounted. The last increase of such magnitude was in 1994.  IG credit issuance slate is expected to feature more financial offerings as the six biggest US banks have all reported earnings, making them candidates
to sell debt.        

METALS: 
                               

Gold fluctuated from a one month high as the dollar strengthened, though bullion’s appeal as a safe-haven and an inflation
hedge capped declines. Gold is stuck between two conflicting forces with risk-off sentiment battling a further increase in US rate hike expectations. The increased fighting in eastern Ukraine is keeping a lid on risk sentiment, while hawkish Fed commentary
is further underpinning US rate hike expectations and the US dollar. Spot gold is flat, silver +0.2%.        

ENERGY:     

Oil erased earlier gains as traders weighed hawkish comments from US Fed officials and China’s promise to repair the economic
damage caused by a spate of lockdowns.  Oil prices fell 1.25% but remained near their highest since mid-March as investor worried over tight global supply after Libya declared force majeure on some oil exports as forces in the east expanded their blockade
of the sector over a political standoff.  With global energy markets already restricted due to the Ukraine crisis, more losses from Libya’s 1.2 million barrels-per-day output will put further pressure on prices. OPEC+ produced 1.45 million barrels per day
(bpd) below its March production targets, as Russian output began to slump in response to Western sanctions. Seaborne flows of Russian crude oil declined by a quarter in the seven days to April 15. Volumes heading to Asia from ports on the Black Sea, Baltic
and Arctic coasts plunged to the lowest in two months. The decline in oil exports means reduced revenue for Moscow as the costs mount of Putin’s war in Ukraine and consequent sanctions on the Russian economy. US Nat Gas -3%.                                    

CURRENCIES:   
 

The US dollar index climbed past 101 for the first time in more than two years and hit a fresh 20-year high against the
Japanese yen despite Japan stepping up verbal warnings. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy have continued to provide support to the dollar. In the meantime, the BoJ has been intervening to keep the yield on Japanese 10-year
government bonds around 0% and no higher than 0.25%. But today, the Japanese finance minister warned against the yen’s recent slump, saying the damage to the economy from a weakening currency at present is greater than the benefits from it.  The Japanese yen
extended its longest losing streak in at least 50 years. The Australian dollar rose from a one month low after its central bank suggested it is nearer to raising interest rates for the first time in a decade as inflation accelerates and a tightening labor
market nudges wage growth higher, minutes of its April policy meeting showed today.  AUDUSD +0.35%, USDJPY +1.05%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURJPY +1.15%.

Bitcoin is steady, trading around $40,800 after hitting a one-month low of $38,547 on Monday.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
  

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

UPGRADES:

• Lululemon (LULU) raised to buy at Truist Secs; PT $495
• NorthWestern (NWE) raised to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $62
• Portland General (POR) raised to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $57
• PriceSmart (PSMT) raised to sector outperform at Scotiabank; PT $100
• TechnipFMC (FTI) raised to buy at SocGen; PT $10

DOWNGRADES:

• Alleghany Corp (Y) cut to market perform at JMP
• Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) cut to neutral at BofA
• Bunge (BG) cut to neutral at BofA
• CMS Energy (CMS) cut to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $76
• Capstone Copper (CS CN) cut to sector perform at National Bank; PT C$8
• Electronic Arts (EA) cut to neutral at Goldman; PT $145
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) cut to hold at Canaccord; PT C$44
• Moog (MOG/A) cut to hold at Truist Secs; PT $88
• NXP Semi (NXPI) cut to neutral at Citi; PT $190
• Newmont Corp (NEM) cut to neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $80
• Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) cut to underweight at Barclays; PT $78
• Playtika (PLTK) cut to neutral at Goldman; PT $22
• Roblox (RBLX) cut to neutral at Goldman; PT $50
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $41
• TDS US (TDS) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $22
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) cut to hold at Canaccord; PT C$54
• U.S. Cellular (USM) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $37

INITIATIONS:

• AN2 Therapeutics (ANTX) rated new outperform at Cowen
• AppLovin (APP) rated new buy at Goldman; PT $68
• Braskem ADRs (BRKM5 BZ) rated new outperform at Bradesco BBI; PT $22
• Dell Technologies (DELL) rated new neutral at KGI Securities; PT $52
• DocGo (DCGO) rated new buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $11
• Full House Resorts (FLL) rated new buy at B Riley; PT $20
• Guidewire (GWRE) rated new outperform at RBC; PT $125
• HP Enterprise (HPE) rated new outperform at KGI Securities; PT $19
• Kinetik (KNTK) rated new buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $76
• Matterport (MTTR) rated new equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $9
• On Holding (ONON) rated new buy at Berenberg; PT $31
• Patterson-UTI (PTEN) rated new buy at Benchmark; PT $21
• Penumbra (PEN) rated new buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $250
• PropertyGuru Group (PGRU) rated new neutral at BTIG
• Sierra Wireless (SW CN) rated new outperform at William Blair
• Snap (SNAP) rated new buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $49
• Vera Therapeutics (VERA) rated new outperform at Wedbush; PT $32
• WeWork (WE) rated new overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $10

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC