Thursday April 28, 2022 Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907
TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from
the trading desk, this is not research
DATA/HEADLINES
8:30ET Weekly Jobless Claims, Real GDP
No Fed officials are slated to speak until after the May 3-4 FOMC meeting
TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:
-
California to raise its gas tax, already the highest in the nation
-
CDC and FDA ‘altered’
Covid guidance and even ‘suppressed’ findings while under political pressure
Global markets are rising as upbeat earnings bolstered the bull case for the economy and markets, diffusing growth fears for now. Corporate results
are generally strong as companies are able to pass higher costs to consumers and the demand remains high. President Biden plans to deliver remarks today on support for Ukraine as his administration looks to send a proposal to Congress for more weapons and
humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, the German parliament urged the government to quickly supply Ukraine with heavy weapons and other equipment.
US EQUITIES:
US equity futures rallied as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbs more than 2% with Meta’s jump accounting for a third of Nasdaq futures gain. Meta
Platform shares soared as much as 20% post-market after Facebook returned to user growth after the first-ever decline in the December quarter. Both the daily active user figure and average revenue per user exceeded estimates. Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps over 7%
premarket after giving a robust sales forecast. PayPal (PYPL) rises more than 3% after better than expected Q1 results. Pinterest shares (PINS) rise 9% after quarterly earnings beat estimates, though analysts cut price targets amid questions over user engagement.
Teladoc Health (TDOC) plunges 40% after cutting its revenue and earnings guidance. Amgen (AMGN) drops 5% after an IRS probe of prior tax years. Ford’s (F) first-quarter results that were mixed. Twitter reported revenue for the first quarter that missed estimates
but daily active usage jumped 15.9%. The company said it is withdrawing all previously provided goals and outlook. Align Technology (ALGN) sinks 22% after the firm reported adjusted earnings that missed. Amazon.com and Apple are the next big tech names to
report earnings, after the close, where the focus will be on its supply chain. It’s a busy day for economic data with advance GDP in focus ahead of the bell.
E-mini S&P futures +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Russell 2000 futures +1.25%, Dow futures +0.70%.
It’s a packed day for earnings releases with Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Mastercard, Comcast, Twitter, Apple, Intel and Amazon among the many names
reporting.
European stocks advanced for a second day, trimming their monthly decline, as investors monitored a busy earnings day to gauge companies’ ability
to overcome inflationary and policy risks. Shares in the region are broadly higher with travel, tech and autos the strongest sector performers. Banks also rose as Standard Chartered shares surged after it beat estimates and Barclays gained after traders delivered
a surprise jump in revenue, helping offset a charge for accidentally overselling US securities. TotalEnergies advanced after posting a threefold increase in first-quarter adjusted profit and expanded its share buybacks. Travel +3%, Tech +2.8%, Autos +2.7%,
Energy +1.8%, Banks +1%. Basic Resources are the only sector in the red, down 0.4%.
Asian stocks rose with Japan leading after the country’s central bank kept its easing stance unchanged, while the stabilizing
of Covid cases in China also helped investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1%, rebounding from its lowest since mid-2020. Australian miner BHP Group and Chinese internet giant Alibaba provided the biggest boosts to the benchmark,
with financials and materials leading the sectoral advances. Stocks in China gained for a second day after fresh policy pledges to promote internet platform firms and easing virus outbreaks in Beijing and Shanghai buoyed sentiment. Nikkei 225 +1.75%, Hang
Seng +1.65%, ASX 200 +1.3%, Sensex +1.25%, Vietnam -0.2%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries advanced across the curve, before giving back gains in early US trading. Session highs were reached late in the
Asia session after the BOJ pledged to buy unlimited amount of bonds at a fixed rate every business day to cap 10-year yields at 0.25%. 2/10 curve -3bps; 10-year yield around 2.845%. Treasury sales will conclude with $44 billion in 7-year notes auctioned at
1:00EST. Dollar issuance slate empty so far; two deals totaling $800m were priced Wednesday, taking weekly volume to $4b vs $20b that was expected for the week.
METALS:
Gold prices hovered near their lowest level in two months as expectations of aggressive US policy tightening spurred the
dollar and added pressure on the non-yielding metal.
ENERGY:
Oil fluctuated in and out of positive territory as investors weighed up tightening Russian supplies and the prospect of
dwindling fuel demand in China. Crude prices have struggled for direction this week as China’s spreading virus outbreak continued to weigh on the outlook for global demand. Beijing closed some public spaces and stepped up COVID-19 checks at others on Thursday
as most of the city’s 22 million residents embarked on more mass testing in an effort to avert a Shanghai-like lockdown. Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17% in 2022, according to an economy ministry document, as the country contends with Western
sanctions. Natural gas prices in Europe declined following two days of gains as buyers considered options to keep getting supply from Russia without violating sanctions. Several European Union nations are pushing for clearer guidance on Russia’s demand to
pay for gas in rubles, saying the current advice is vague. WTI -1%, Brent -1%.
CURRENCIES:
The US$ rose for a sixth straight day with Asian currencies broadly lower ahead of next week’s US Federal Reserve policy
meeting. USDJPY climbed over 130 for the first time since 2002 after the BOJ doubled down on its bond buying operations, saying it would carry out fixed-rate bond buying every business day as part of its stimulus measures to keep a lid on rising yields.
The yen has also suffered this year from Japan’s position as a commodity importer at a time of surging prices. A finance ministry official said that Japan will take appropriate action in currency markets as recent moves are “extremely worrying.” The Chinese
yuan is also under pressure, falling more than 1% in offshore trading. In Europe, the euro slid to a five-year low, while the pound fell to the weakest since July 2020. US$ Index +0.65%, USDJPY +1.8%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.55%, EURJPY +1.2%, AUDUSD -0.4%,
USDNOK +1%.
Bitcoin is +1.6%,Ethereum +2.3%.
TECHNICAL LEVELS:
ESM |
10 Year Yield |
June Gold |
June WTI |
$ Index |
|
Resistance |
4383.00 |
3.750% |
2078.0 |
116.64 |
|
|
4326.00 |
3.500% |
2036.6 |
111.55 |
107.400 |
|
4302/03 |
3.250% |
2003.5* |
109.20 |
106.800 |
|
4267.00 |
3.000% |
1956/57 |
106.25 |
105.000 |
|
4212.00 |
2.975% |
1928.00 |
104.45 |
103.500 |
Settlement |
4180.25 |
1888.7 |
102.02 |
102.963 |
|
|
4162.00 |
2.545% |
1878.4* |
100.00 |
101.035 |
|
4130/36 |
2.245% |
1844/48 |
98.23 |
99.370 |
|
4101/02* |
2.155% |
1834.0 |
96.93 |
98.030 |
|
4060/65 |
2.060% |
1780.0 |
95.28 |
96.400 |
Support |
4029/30 |
1.765% |
1753.0 |
92.60 |
95.580 |
Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
UPGRADES:
- Autohome ADRs (ATHM) raised to buy at Citi; PT $30
- Fifth Third (FITB) raised to overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $52
- Kinder Morgan (KMI) raised to equal-weight at Wells Fargo; PT $21
- MSCI (MSCI) raised to outperform at Raymond James; PT $515
- MaxLinear (MXL) raised to overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $66
- RPC Inc. (RES) raised to accumulate at Johnson Rice; PT $13
- Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) raised to peerperform at Wolfe
DOWNGRADES:
- Celanese (CE) cut to neutral at On Field; PT $170
- Coca-Cola (KO) cut to hold at DZ Bank; PT $69
- Greenhill (GHL) cut to underperform at KBW; PT $12
- LyondellBasell (LYB) cut to neutral at On Field; PT $110
- Moelis & Co (MC) cut to neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $50
- New Oriental Education ADRs (EDU) cut to market perform at CICC
- Sio Gene Therapies Inc (SIOX) cut to neutral at Cantor; PT 80 cents
- Spotify (SPOT) cut to hold at Pivotal; PT $110
- Teladoc (TDOC) cut to market perform at William Blair
- Teladoc (TDOC) cut to neutral at Citi; PT $43
- Teladoc (TDOC) cut to neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $35
- Teladoc (TDOC) cut to neutral at Guggenheim
- Vroom (VRM) cut to market perform at William Blair
INITIATIONS:
- Allstate (ALL) reinstated outperform at Credit Suisse; PT $188
- Archer Aviation (ACHR) rated new overweight at JPMorgan; PT $7
- Arvinas (ARVN) rated new outperform at Credit Suisse; PT $104
- AvidXchange (AVDX) rated new equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $9
- Babylon Holdings/Jersey (BBLN) rated new hold at Berenberg; PT $5.50
- C4 Therapeutics (CCCC) rated new underperform at Credit Suisse; PT $10
- Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) rated new neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $78
- EVgo (EVGO) rated new overweight at Cantor; PT $14
- Freshpet (FRPT) rated new buy at Benchmark; PT $135
- Grab Holdings (GRAB) rated new outperform at CICC; PT $3.70
- Homology Medicines (FIXX) rated new neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $2.70
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) reinstated outperform at Credit Suisse
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) rated new neutral at JPMorgan; PT $7
- Kemper (KMPR) rated new underperform at Credit Suisse; PT $44
- Kymera (KYMR) rated new outperform at Credit Suisse; PT $63
- Lilium (LILM) rated new neutral at JPMorgan; PT $5
- Monte Rosa (GLUE) rated new neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $19
- Progressive (PGR) reinstated neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $124
- Sachem Capital (SACH) rated new outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $6
- Vascular Biogenics (VBLT) rated new buy at Chardan Capital Markets
David Wienke
Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC