Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Friday November 20, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   
8:30ET  Fed’s Kaplan, George speak; 9:00ET Fed’s Barkin, Bostic speak; 1:30ET Fed’s George speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS: 

• Mnuchin said Congress should redirect unspent stimulus funding
• Biden Says He Will Not Order National Lockdown to Fight Virus
  
• Georgia's recount showed Biden kept a narrower but still decisive lead
• The U.K. hasn't moved on the last hurdles to a trade deal
• Joe Biden who turns 78 today, said he will announce his pick for Treasury secretary soon
• Trump will meet with Republican leaders from Michigan at the White House
  
• President Trump takes part in a virtual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit this morning
  

Global stocks are winding up a choppy week with investors trying to weigh the show of discord between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Fed Chair
Powell.  Mnuchin released a letter to the Fed demanding the return of money the government provides the central bank so it can lend to certain markets in times of stress.  Mnuchin requested that emergency liquidity including primary and secondary market corporate
credit facilities introduced earlier in the year expire as scheduled on Dec. 31. The central bank objected to the instruction, urging that “the full suite” of measures be maintained into 2021.  Meanwhile, EU leaders are struggling to approve a $2 trillion
stimulus package for the bloc’s weakened economies. European stocks gained and US futures were mixed as investors held out hopes that top officials on both continents will resolve disputes over unleashing further stimulus for their battered economies.   

EQUITIES: 
 

S&P 500 futures pared an early decline and Nasdaq 100 contracts edged higher as investor anxiety began easing hours after the unusual public
disagreement between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over releasing funds to further shore up the economy.  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said companies don’t need more loans, and instead require more grant money, which requires action from Congress. President-elect
Joe Biden said that his administration would not impose a national lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Vaccine maker Pfizer rose in pre-market trading after a report that the European Union could pay $10 billion for Covid-19 shots. Pfizer said
it has applied for emergency use authorization with the US, the first drug company to go through the regulatory process. Pfizer said this vaccine could be available for high risk people by mid-December.  Gilead Sciences dropped after health authorities advised
against using its Remdesivir drug to treat the sickness.

December E-mini S&P futures -0.05%, Nasdaq +0.15%, Russell 2000 futures -0.2%, Dow futures -0.1%. E-Mini S&P will hold a short term positive
tone above 3568 area (s/t .382) as the NYSE A/D continues to support.

The DJIA is headed for its best month since 1987.

We continue to look for small caps to outperform with IWM vs SPY gaining above the initial key Fibonacci retracement.

QQQ versus SPY broke the 100dma for the first time since September 2019 and we are using it as pivot pt resistance in the pair.

European stocks edge higher in a mostly quiet session with Italian FTSE MIB leading gains, up 0.9%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its
third week of gains amid a rotation into economically sensitive sectors. Mining and energy firms led the advance as commodities from oil to copper rallied. UK software publisher Sage Group plunged 13% after an earnings miss. In the meantime, the European Union
warned that the UK hasn’t moved sufficiently to overcome the main obstacles to a post-Brexit trade deal as some leaders called for contingency plans to be stepped up in case there is no agreement. Basic Resources sector +1.25%, Energy +1.1%, Retail +0.9%,
Banks +0.65%, DAX and CAC +0.35%, Stoxx 600 +0.4%.

Most markets in the Asian region were up, with Thailand's SET advancing 1.2% and Singapore's Straits Times Index rising 1.1%, while Indonesia's
Jakarta Composite slid 0.4%. The Topix was little changed, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4%, led by materials and machinery stocks. Indian shares bounced back from a sharp fall yesterday, driven by signs of a faster-than-expected recovery in business
activity. Hong Kong shares edged up led by consumer and material stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell for a third consecutive session, -0.4%, as a rise in new coronavirus infections to record highs fueled concerns that officials will place new restrictions
on business activity.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are paring an advance that began late Thursday following clash between Treasury Department and Fed over preservation of emergency
lending programs. Yields extended their climb from session lows along with equity index futures after Pfizer said it will seek emergency authorization for its Covid vaccine.

10 year yield holds the
50 week
moving average again this week and 30 year yield seems likely to retest its
200 dma

TLT has key resistance at its
200dma

METALS: 

Gold steadied after the longest losing run since March, as a sell-off in exchange-traded funds that was triggered by optimism over a coronavirus
vaccine continued. Gold is headed for a second weekly decline on growing optimism about COVID-19 vaccines, with the U.S. Treasury's call to end emergency loan programs also limiting bullion's safe-haven appeal.  Gold’s direction is likely to be driven by worries
over surging virus cases around the world and the outlook for stimulus measures. Spot gold traded little changed after declining in the previous four days. Prices are down 1.3% this week and have lost about 10% from their all-time high.

December Gold futures continue to hold the initial key Fibonacci retracement support. A clean break of this level could see momentum shift to
test $1700 area.

ENERGY:  

Oil rose, heading for a third weekly gain, as positive Covid-19 vaccine developments offered bulls encouragement about the market’s prospects
despite lockdown measures to combat the disease’s spread. A string of positive vaccine statements has put prices on course for the longest run of weekly gains since June. Still, Americans are being urged not to travel for Thanksgiving, and European road use
is once again being depressed because of lockdowns.

WTI futures continue to hold below the .618 retracement on the year, but both WTI and Brent are holding short term positive tone above their
200 day moving averages.

CURRENCIES:  

The pound trimmed gains following reports that the key outstanding hurdles to a post-Brexit trade accord remain unresolved. One EU official said
the bloc and Britain are very close to agreement in trade talks on most issues, but differences persist over fishing rights, guarantees of fair competition and ways to solve future disputes. The dollar was supported in early trade on U.S. Treasury’s steps
to reclaim funds from the Federal Reserve, making extensions of emergency support programs less likely. Mnuchin’s move re-appropriated some $455 billion allocated to the Treasury for other spending.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• DTIL +23.1% (+$2.24): Precision Surges on Genome Editing Research Pact With Lilly
• AYRO +21.4% (+$1.32)
• AMRN +18.1% (+$0.82); Amarin: Vascepa Study Supports China Regulatory Submission
• MESO +16.2% (+$1.91)
• WTRH +14% (+$0.48)
• GNFT +13.3% (+$0.56)
• FEYE +13% (+$1.85); FireEye Soars in Pre-Market; Analysts Hail Deal, Blackstone Cash
• QFIN +9% (+$1.12)
• BLNK +9% (+$1.65)
• YSG +7.7% (+$1.42)
• HIBB +7.7% (+$3.25); Hibbett Sports Surges After 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
• WWR +7.4% (+$0.43)
• ATRO +7.3% (+$0.69); Astronics Raised to Buy at Canaccord
• BNTX +7.1% (+$6.77); EU Could Approve BioNTech, Moderna Vaccines in December
• CBAT +6.7% (+$0.51)
• LGVW +6.5% (+$0.64); Robbins’s Longview Tapped by Ultrasound Startup for SPAC Merger
• MP +6.2% (+$0.97)
• RDHL +5.9% (+$0.53)
• SRNE +5.9% (+$0.45)
• MGNI +5.9% (+$0.83)
• BKE +5.8% (+$1.67); Buckle 3Q Net Sales $251.0M Vs. $224.1M Y/y

Decliners

• NNDM -28.7% (-$1.68)
• GSX -15.1% (-$10.8); GSX Techedu Social Media Volume Surges
• DNK -7.8% (-$0.30)
• AVRO -7.2% (-$1.23); Avrobio to Offer $75m Shrs
• FUV -5.3% (-$0.85)
• JMIA -4.3% (-$1.04)
• HGEN -2.9% (-$0.24)
• ABCM -2.4% (-$0.45)
• WDAY -2.3% (-$5.29); Workday Analysts See Risk in Backlog Guidance: Street Wrap
• HOLX -2.2% (-$1.51); Hologic Cut to Hold at Needham

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC