Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Tuesday November 24, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   
9:00ET  ECB's Lagarde speaks; 10:00ET Consumer Confidence; 11:00ET Fed's Bullard speaks; 12:00ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 12:45ET Fed’s Clarida speaks; 1:00ET 7 Year Auction

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS: 

• Trump administration gives green light to proceed with Biden transition
  
• Minnesota will unveil a relief package for small businesses
  
• Michigan certified Biden as the winner
  
• Millions Defy CDC Travel Warnings
  
• China and Japan agree to lift some virus-related travel restrictions
  
• Data show hospitalized Covid-19 patients are surviving at higher rates
  
  LINK

Global stocks advanced for a second day as investors cheered the start of US President-elect Joe Biden’s formal transition and the prospect for
more economic stimulus with the selection of Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary. Treasuries fluctuated and the dollar fell. Oil moved higher as gold dropped to a four-month low.  Later today, Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris are expected to formally
introduce their appointments to critical national security and foreign policy positions.

EQUITIES: 
 

Futures contracts on the U.S.’s major equity indexes rise as political tensions in the U.S. ease with the start of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s
formal transition. Now that the transition can begin, Biden will focus on vaccine planning and assessing federal agencies and may also start receiving classified intelligence briefings. Biden's selection of Janet Yellen (dove) as Treasury secretary signals
he plans to act aggressively to revive the economy. Yellen has called for increased government spending to lift the economy out of a coronavirus-induced recession.  That’s fueling the rotation out of defensive technology stocks and into assets that have been
hardest hit by the pandemic, such as airlines and energy producers. American Airlines and Carnival Corp led the advance in premarket trading as they rose 4.9% and 6.2%, respectively. The official Yellen announcement is expected next week, and she is likely
to be tested in her Senate confirmation hearings, where conservatives will question her less confrontational position toward China.  In a 2018 congressional hearing as Fed chair, Yellen said China was not to blame for America’s big worldwide trade deficit.

December E-mini S&P futures +0.85%, Nasdaq +0.40%, Russell 2000 futures 1.4%, Dow futures +1%.  Look for 3634 area to be tested today in E—Mini
S&P. Advance/Declines continue to support the indices.  

Small caps continue to outperform, and looking for the .618 retracement in IWM vs SPY, another 5% relative to S&P 500.

KBW Bank ETF is nearing key Fibonacci resistance again. Upside momentum likely above it.

European stocks rose, on course for a record monthly gain, spurred by investor optimism about the development of coronavirus vaccines and reduced
political uncertainty in the US. Energy stocks led the Stoxx 600 Index higher, with travel companies and banks also leading higher. EasyJet and International Consolidated Airlines Group rose after England planned to cut its quarantine period for arrivals from
high-risk countries, moving to end its current lockdown at the start of December. The German Ifo business expectations index fell more than expected in November to 91.5 from a revised 94.7 last month. Germany's DAX announced the biggest overhaul since the
index’s inception in 1988. The number of members will increase to 40 from 30 and new quality criteria will be imposed on both existing and prospective members. Energy +4%, Banks +2.9%, Autos +2.4%, Basic Resources +2.3%, Travel & Leisure +1.75%, CAC +1.4%,
FTSE 100 +1.2%, DAX +1%.

Markets in the Asian region were mixed, with Japan's Topix and Australia's ASX 200 (+1.25%) gaining, while Thailand's SET and Taiwan's Taiex
slid.  The Topix added 2%, with Sony and Shin-Etsu Chemical contributing the most to the move. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.3%, showing little reaction to news that US President-elect Joe Biden was given the go-ahead to begin his White House transition.
India’s stock benchmarks closed at record highs, with the Nifty 50 topping the 13,000 level for the first time as bank shares led gains. South Korean shares ended at a record high, with Samsung Electronics leading gains. Japanese shares hit multi-year highs
as progress in developing an inexpensive coronavirus vaccine boosted hopes of a swift economic recovery.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures are little changed in early US trading after paring Asia-session declines spurred by White House consenting to start of presidential
transition process. Record size 7-year note sale at 1pm ET concludes this week’s Treasury auction cycle for holiday-shortened week.  30 yr yield holding above the 200dma.

METALS: 

Haven assets were broadly weaker with gold dropping to a four-month low even with a weaker dollar. Gold is extending yesterday’s losses, down
1.5% and nearing $1800/oz. Base metals are firming with LME copper gaining over 1.5%. Dec Gold is gaining downside momentum after breaking the key Fibonacci support yesterday and is nearing the 200 day moving average of
1794.5
(168.40 in GLD).

Copper is nearing the December 2017 significant high and pivot pt resistance area.

ENERGY:  

Oil wipes out most of its pandemic losses, hitting its highest since March, as the likely imminent rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine spurred optimism
over a pickup in demand next year. A set of announcements of promising COVID-19 vaccine candidates from US drugmakers this month have triggered a 10% rise in the price crude oil but remains 30% lower on the year. OPEC+ meets next week and will discuss whether
or not to maintain or relax its current set of production restrictions.

A little Golden Cross here in January WTI, where the
50dma
crosses above the 200 day
(viewed as a longer term positive technical point).

RBOB has some room before it would retest key Fibonacci retracement area resistance.

CURRENCIES:  

The Pound was stronger in early morning trading but gave back most of those gains after data showed that British retail
sales have fallen by the most since June during this month’s lockdown across most of the country. The Australian dollar rose 0.9%, to a two-and-a-half-month high and the euro gained as appetite for riskier assets was evident across the board. The euro’s gains
will be a concern for policymakers at December’s meeting of the ECB. The New Zealand dollar rose as much as 1% to a two-year high after the country’s government sought advice from the central bank on how it could help stabilize property prices.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• CANG +46.6% (+$4.05)
• IDEX +36.6% (+$0.96)
• CLNE +28% (+$1.23)
• DPW +27% (+$1.94)
• TOUR +26.9% (+$0.63)
• CIIC +25.7% (+$6.55)
• SBE +21% (+$7.16)
• SPI +20.9% (+$2.24)
• LGVW +19.8% (+$2.69)
• MARA +19.5% (+$0.96)
• TLRY +17.7% (+$1.18)
• MP +17% (+$3.20)
• JG +14.4% (+$0.52)
• EH +14.3% (+$1.81)
• FCEL +13.7% (+$1.17)
• LYRA +13.7% (+$1.52)
• ALT +13.3% (+$1.23); Hedge Fund Darling’s Covid Vaccine May Draw Pact, Evercore Says
• COTY +12% (+$0.82)
• FUBO +11.7% (+$3)
• ACH +11% (+$0.92)

Decliners

• KXIN -15.3% (-$1.45)
• DAC -13.7% (-$2.03)
• DBVT -11.4% (-$0.31)
• RENN -10.2% (-$0.82)
• WTRH -6.3% (-$0.25)
• AYRO -5.2% (-$0.55)
• CVAC -4.2% (-$3.57); Virus Impact: AstraZeneca, Compass, Generali, Epiroc, IAG
• HRL -4.1% (-$2.03); Hormel 4Q Net Sales Miss Estimates
• GFI -4% (-$0.37)
• BBY -3.8% (-$4.64); Best Buy 3Q Enterprise Comparable Sales Beat Estimates: Snapshot
• BURL -3.5% (-$8)
• SDC -3.4% (-$0.43); SmileDirectClub Holder Clayton Dubilier & Rice to Offer Shares
• BNTX -3% (-$3.21)
• MAIN -2.8% (-$0.89)
• BEEM -2.7% (-$0.94)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC