Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Wednesday November 25, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   
8:30ET Weekly Jobless Claims (730k exp), GDP, Durable Goods, Advance Trade Report; 10:00ET  New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment (final), Personal Income/Spending, Core Inflation; 2:00ET FOMC Minutes

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS: 

• NYC will have Covid checkpoints at key bridges and crossings
  link
  
• White House Considers Lifting European Travel Restrictions
  
• COVID cases flood hospitals in America’s heartland, mortality rate drops
  
• IBM plans to cut 10,000 jobs in Europe
• Twitter to relaunch 'blue tick' verifications after pausing process over white supremacist controversy
  

Global stocks paused amid their best monthly gains ever as investors awaited a slew of economic indicators today ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday
in the US. The MSCI gauge of global shares remains up about 13% in November, set for the best month since it began in 1988. Global energy shares have risen nearly 34% so far this month, on track for their best month on record, on improved global economic outlook.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the coming days will be “decisive” for trade negotiations with the UK and crucial differences between the two sides remain. In Europe, German Chancellor Merkel is proposing further tightening of the country's
restrictions while France will start easing its lockdown this weekend after a sharp drop in new infections and hospitalizations.     

EQUITIES: 
 

US stock futures wavered a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average breached 30000 points for the first time, and as investors looked ahead
to a packed day of economic data before markets close for the Thanksgiving holiday.  Nasdaq futures hold small gains. In premarket trading, Gap was down 12% after reporting flat sales in the third quarter. Deere rose 2.3% premarket after the farm-equipment
maker reported higher-than-expected net sales. HP Inc. climbed 4.9% after the computing equipment maker's revenue beat analysts' expectations. Dell rose 0.8% after reporting per-share profit that came in ahead of analysts' expectations. Electric-truck maker
Nikola plunged 12% after an 88% gain so far this month.

December E-mini S&P futures flat, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 futures -0.3%, Dow futures -0.15%. 3636 is initial key in ES to start the day (s/t
.382).

The Fear and Greed Index is nearing levels where we have seen pullbacks in equities.

The energy sector led gains yesterday, +5.15%, as XLE gains momentum above its 200dma for the first time since October 2018.

Financials were the next best sector yesterday as XLF relative to SPY gains above the 200 day in the pair.  XLF is down 1.25% pre-market.

 Nasdaq remains negative relative to the S&P 500 with QQQ vs SPY holding below the 100dma in the pair

European shares erased an early gain amid a warning on bad debts tied to the pandemic, though stocks in the region remain on track for a record
monthly jump. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gives back initial gains as banks, autos, and energy firms fell, offsetting gains in telecom, tech, and travel & leisure shares. ABN Amro Bank and Commerzbank both fell over 4% and led the euro-area bank sector lower
after the European Central Bank said the industry may need more bad-loan provisions. Telecom +0.9%, Travel & Leisure +0.6%, Technology +0.55%, Retail -0.5%, Basic Resources and Banks -1%, Autos and Energy -1.3%.  CAC is flat, DAX -0.1% along with Stoxx 600,
FTSE 100 -0.5%.

Markets in the Asian region were mixed, with China's Shanghai Composite and Singapore's Straits Times Index falling, while Australia's ASX 200
and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained.  Japan’s Nikkei rose to a 29-year high. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded down 0.2% as Chinese shares fell on worries about rising debt defaults. Indian shares suffered their worst fall in more
than a month, as investors booked profits after stock benchmarks hit record highs. The Sensex fell 1.56% with 11 of 12 sectors in the red. Hong Kong shares ended up 0.3% as profit-taking in tech shares contained gains. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 1.2%
as electric vehicle stocks fell on news of a government investigation into the sector.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve in early US trading ahead of a pending economic data dump ahead of the holiday. 10 year yield
is holding below the 50 week moving average. TLT remains negative with settles below its
200dma.

METALS: 

Gold edged higher after retreating nearly 4% in the previous two sessions, with a weaker dollar helping to offset a shift to equities and other
riskier assets on hopes that coronavirus vaccines will spur economic recovery.  Analysts do not expect an immediate recovery in gold as equities power to record highs. Prices should rise again as more evidence of inflation emerges, Goldman Sachs said. Dec
Gold remains negative below the 1848 area, as GLD is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average.

ENERGY:  

Oil extended gains, trading at its highest level since March, on mounting optimism that recent breakthroughs on a Covid-19 vaccine will lead
to a swift recovery in global energy demand next year. Oil rose for a fourth straight session as the market shrugged off an industry report from API showing US crude stockpiles rose more than expected. Official US government crude inventory data will be released
later today. A flurry of tenders from Chinese and Indian refiners seeking crude oil for January is the latest sign of improving strength in Asian markets.

CURRENCIES:  

The Pound is flat versus the dollar as traders waited to see whether Britain will be able to clinch a post-Brexit trade
deal with the European Union during this week’s negotiations. The dollar index is marginally lower as progress in developing a novel coronavirus vaccine and expectations for a fiscal boost from a new US government triggered a shift of funds to riskier assets.
The US dollar teetered near a two-month low against the Australian dollar and a two-year low against the New Zealand dollar, both considered barometers of risk sentiment due to their close ties with the global commodities trade.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• YJ +42.2% (+$1.81)
• WEI +26.4% (+$0.46)
• JFU +22.6% (+$0.40)
• MKD +20.9% (+$0.24)
• VNET +18.6% (+$4.62); 21Vianet 3Q Earnings Per ADS 48 RMB Cents
• MESA +16.3% (+$1); Mesa Air Group Enters New Contract With American Airlines
• MOGU +10.6% (+$0.30)
• TOUR +10.6% (+$0.30)
• PROG +10.3% (+$0.40)
• CASI +7.6% (+$0.19); CASI Pharmaceuticals CEO Wei-Wu Buys Over $480,000 of Shares
• HPQ +5.7% (+$1.25); HP Price Targets Raised on Remote Working Trends: Street Wrap
• INAQ +5.6% (+$0.63)
• JWN +5.5% (+$1.36); Nordstrom 3Q Sales, Adjusted EPS Beat Estimates (1)
• VIOT +5.1% (+$0.32)
• ETRN +4.9% (+$0.42)
• VMAR +4.8% (+$0.70)
• FSR +4.6% (+$0.73); Fisker Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $26

Decliners

• MOHO -23.6% (-$0.85); Ecmoho Rises 152%: Chinese U.S. Listings
• FTEK -22% (-$1.33)
• LQDA -16.1% (-$0.50)
• NKLA -13% (-$4.50); Nikola Falls After New CEO Appeared on CNBC’s ‘Mad Money’
• IDEX -12.7% (-$0.40); Ideanomics Jumps After Potentially Erroneous Options Trades
• KNDI -11.6% (-$1.67)
• LI -11.2% (-$4.91)
• GPS -10.7% (-$2.87); Gap Sinks as Rising Costs Cloud Margin Recovery: Street Wrap
• XPEV -10.1% (-$7.10)
• DPW -10% (-$0.63)
• SBE -9.6% (-$3.55)
• BLNK -8.9% (-$2.51)
• PUMP -8.4% (-$0.58); ProPetro Climbs Above PT First Time in About Five Months
• CIIC -8.4% (-$2.27)
• NIO -7.9% (-$4.25)
• DNK -7.3% (-$0.24)
• FRO -7.2% (-$0.53); Frontline 3Q Net Operating Income Misses Ests; Shares Fall (1)
• AYRO -6.8% (-$0.59)
• SOLO -6% (-$0.51)
• FTI -5.8% (-$0.56)
• WKHS -5.7% (-$1.63); Workhorse Group Short Interest Rises to 36.2% of Float
• PSTG -5.4% (-$1.06); Pure Storage Results Point to Improving Demand: Street Wrap

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC