Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Friday November 25, 2022                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES  

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• Russia adds Meta Platforms to register of extremist organizations
  
• China frees up $70B for banks to underpin slowing economy

Global stocks fluctuated as investors assessed prospects for less-aggressive central bank tightening and weighed China’s
latest move to stimulate its economy as Covid-19 infections rise. The People’s Bank of China said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the second time this year, releasing about $70B in long-term liquidity to prop up the faltering
economy. Meanwhile, Beijing residents were emptying supermarket shelves as the city government ordered accelerated construction of quarantine centers. The resurgence of COVID cases in China, with 32,695 new local infections recorded for Thursday as numerous
cities report outbreaks, has prompted widespread lockdowns and other curbs on movement. In other news, JPMorgan strategists say the worst may soon be over for global bonds, with supply due to be reduced by about $1.6 trillion versus an estimated deterioration
of about $700 billion in demand                          

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures wavered following the Thanksgiving holiday, but are poised to end the shortened trading week higher after recent commentary
from Federal Reserve officials supported the case for a slower pace of interest-rate increases.  S&P 500 contracts inched higher before an abbreviated Thanksgiving weekend cash trading session. US retailers are bracing for a slower-than-normal Black Friday
as high inflation and sagging sentiment erode consumer demand. After adjusting for inflation, seasonal sales are likely to fall 1.2%, the first decline since 2009, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. A key question this Black Friday will be how much
higher prices are contributing to better sales numbers.                

Futures ahead of the bell: E-mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.15%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, Dow +0.15%.  The 200 day moving average in ES is key resistance,
especially on a closing basis.

In pre-market trading, US-listed Chinese stocks fall and are set for their first weekly decline in four weeks, with surging
Covid cases and increasing curbs across the country hurting optimism that the country will reopen soon. Alibaba (BABA) -2.1%, Baidu (BIDU) -2.4%. Apple slipped after a report that production of iPhones in November could fall by at least 30% at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou
plant where worker protests have disrupted operations. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) shares fell 4.7% on a media report that the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s $69b deal to buy the video-game maker.  Coupa
Software (COUP) shares are up 3.2% as analysts digested a report that Vista Equity Partners is exploring an acquisition of the expense management software company.  Manchester United (MANU) shares jump 9% after Saudi Arabia’s sports minister told BBC Sport
that its government would support private sector bids for the team. Apple is said to be considering a billion-dollar bid to take over the English football giant, according to a new report. In other news, Tesla is recalling more than 80,000 cars in China, the
nation’s regulator said.

European stocks nudge higher in quiet trading and are on track for a sixth successive week of gains, the longest winning
streak in a year.  Energy and healthcare sectors lead gains while real estate and retails shares slipped.  The German economy grew slightly more in the third quarter than preliminary figures suggested on the back of consumer spending, adding to signs that
a coming recession will not hit as hard as initially feared, data showed. Europe’s largest economy expanded by 0.4% quarter on quarter and by 1.3% on the year, the federal statistics office said. Among individual movers, Credit Suisse Group AG fell to a fresh
record low in the wake of massive outflows the bank reported this week.  Intrum fell as much as 18% after the Swedish debt collection group said it needs to make negative adjustments in its jointly-owned Italian SPV.  Fielmann shares fell as much as 6.3% after
Berenberg said margin recovery is still not in sight for the eyewear retailer.  Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX is flat, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.25%, Energy +0.8%, Healthcare +0.3%, Banks +0.25%. Real Estate -1.25%, Retail -0.75%, Basic Resources -0.4%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed, with Chinese technology shares retreating amid concerns about growing mainland Covid cases. 
Trading volumes were thinner than usual in some markets following the US Thanksgiving holiday.  The Hang Seng Tech Index closed down more than 2.3% before Meituan’s earnings release. Meituan posted a 28% surge in revenue, affirming resilient demand in China. 
Malaysia’s benchmark dropped, paring Thursday’s surge after Anwar Ibrahim was appointed prime minister. Stocks also fell in Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, while Vietnam rose more than 2.5%.  Core consumer prices in Japan’s capital, a leading indicator
of nationwide trends, rose at their fastest annual pace in 40 years in November and exceeded the central bank’s 2% target for a sixth straight month, signaling broadening inflationary pressure.  MSCI Asia Pacific Index -0.3%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Nikkei 225 -0.35%,
Kospi -0.15%.  Philippines +1.2%, China’s CSI 300 +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.25%, Sensex flat.

FIXED INCOME: 
                                        

Treasuries are modestly weaker today, led by the belly where rates are near their cheapest levels of the day into early
US session. The 10-year rate is up around 2bp at ~3.71%. Bunds and gilts yields trade heavier and the selloff in European debt helped reverse early gains in Treasuries during the London session. US trading session is expected to be quiet after Thanksgiving
holiday with an early close recommended for Friday at 2pm EST.     

METALS: 
                               

Gold price retreats from a fresh weekly high touched earlier today and remain on the defensive through the mid-European
session.  Still, the metal is poised for a small weekly gain after Federal Reserve minutes showed increasing support for slowing the pace of interest-rate hikes. Bullion has rallied about 8% in November amid dollar weakness, after aggressive monetary tightening
by the US central bank led to a run of seven monthly losses. Attention will turn to a long slate of US economic data next week, including the Fed’s favored inflation metric.  Spot gold -0.25%, silver -1.2%.          

ENERGY:      

Oil recouped some of its third weekly loss as the European Union weighed a higher-than-expected price cap on flows of Russian
crude. Brent traded above $86 a barrel, putting the global benchmark on course for a small decline at the end of a volatile week, with trading volumes thin around a US holiday. European diplomats remain locked in talks over how strict the cap should be. Poland
rejected the EU’s executive arm’s proposed price of $65 per barrel as being too soft on Moscow. Greece, a massive player in the oil shipping industry, doesn’t want to go below $70.  Meanwhile, the global oil market keeps sending signals that demand is weakening. 
A closely-watched gauge of Asian oil demand has slumped to a seven-month low as hopes fade for a recovery in Chinese consumption as surging virus cases in China trigger lockdown-like restrictions in the biggest crude importer. WTI +1.5%, Brent +1.1%. US Nat
Gas is down 1.25%.     

CURRENCIES:  
                     

The dollar rose slightly after three straight days of losses in a generally quiet session so far. The US$ Index is up 0.03%,
GBPUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD -0.3%, EURUSD -0.3%.                     

Bitcoin -0.2%;  Ethereum -0.3%. Matrixport, one of Asia’s biggest crypto lenders, is targeting $100 million in funding at
a higher valuation even with the crypto chaos. The Singapore firm is said to have commitments from lead investors for $50 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion in the round, up from $1 billion a year ago.    

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
  

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC