Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Monday November 28, 2022                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES  
10:30ET Dallas Fed Manufacturing; 10:00ET Fed’s Williams speaks, Fed’s Bullard interviewed by MarketWatch

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• Elon Musk said Twitter can get more than a billion monthly users
  in 12 to 18 months
• WTO Sees Weaker Trade Growth Amid Sharp Drop In Export Orders

Global shares suffered a broad sell-off as growing unrest in China hit growth expectations. Demonstrations over strict COVID-19
curbs that flared across major Chinese cities over the weekend unnerved world markets, weakening crude oil prices and adding fresh political risks to a fragile year-end.  The unrest in China complicates expectations of the country’s path to reopening, which
had buoyed sentiment toward riskier assets in recent sessions.  Wary that both the anti-government unrest and the COVID crunch compound the economic hit to China and the world, the initial market reaction on Monday was to sell Chinese stocks, the yuan and
oil. A US regulatory clampdown on Chinese tech giants, citing national security concerns, also weighed on shares of tech firms. Financial markets have for weeks looked positively at even the vaguest hint of China’s curbs easing – with many asset managers still
assuming the restrictions will eventually lift by the end of the first quarter of 2023.  A bear market rally in equity markets will continue into next year before slumping as a recession in the world economy takes hold, Deutsche Bank said in its world economic
outlook published today.                               

EQUITIES: 
The S&P500 has been down on the Monday following Thanksgiving about 65% of the time over the last 60 years

US stock futures dropped as modest customer traffic and heavy discounting by American retailers on Black Friday added to the downbeat tone. 
As US markets return after the Thanksgiving weekend, investors’ focus this week will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech on the US economy and labor market for clues on the monetary policy outlook. Since the Fed’s latest meeting, investors
have parsed a bevy of economic data that somewhat eased inflation concerns, further strengthening the case for smaller rate hikes.  Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank said stock markets are in for a wild ride next year as they don’t yet reflect
the risk of a US recession. Deutsche Bank expects the S&P 500 Index to slump 19% from current levels in the third quarter as a recession begins, before rebounding in the fourth quarter. Goldman’s analysis shows that equities tend to rebound once inflation
has peaked if a recession is avoided. In the event of a contraction, however, they decline another 10% on average in the six to nine months after the peak.                 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-mini S&P -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.8%, Russell 2000 -0.7%, Dow -0.6%.  The 200 day moving average in ES is key resistance,
especially on a closing basis.

Oil companies are prominent among decliners in US premarket trading. Chevron got a six-month license from the US to resume
oil production in Venezuela. Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford can also restart.  Apple dropped 1.8% after a report that turmoil at its key Chinese manufacturing hub could result in heavy production shortfalls. Chinese shares listed in
the US slipped, including e-commerce giants Alibaba Group and JD.com. Beyond Meat (BYND) drops 2.9% and Tyson (TSN) falls 2.1% as both stocks were cut to underweight from equal-weight at Barclays.  Activision Blizzard (ATVI) shares gain 1.4% after being upgraded
to overweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo. Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) gains 15% after saying its therapy AXS-05 met the primary and key secondary endpoints in the late-stage “Accord” trial for Alzheimer’s disease.   Shopify (SHOP) shares are up 6% after
the cloud-based commerce platform announced Black Friday sales that analysts see as strong. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Melco Resorts (MLCO) gain 6% after being lifted to overweight from neutral from JPMorgan.

European stocks broadly retreated, following six weeks of gains, as investors fled risk assets amid reduced optimism about
China’s economic reopening.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark fell nearly 1%, with oil companies among the steepest decliners while real estate and retail sectors also underperformed. Among individual movers, Credit Suisse Group AG fell to a fresh low, dropping
for a 10th session. Adler Group SA soared as much as 64% after the German landlord agreed a deal with creditors to extend debt maturities and postpone publication of audited accounts. Jet2 shares gains as much as 4.6% after the low-cost airline was upgraded
to buy from hold at HSBC. Stoxx 600 -0.8%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -0.9%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Energy -2.1%, Retail -1.8%, Basic Resources -1.7%, Real Estate -1.6%, Technology -1.2%, Autos -1%.

Asian stocks fell as growing protests in China over pandemic restrictions hurt demand for risk assets. The bigger worries
about China’s COVID policies dwarfed any support to investor sentiment from the central bank’s 25 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) announced on Friday. China announced a fifth consecutive day of record new local COVID cases with 40,052
infections on Monday. Also weighing on sentiment was news that the Biden administration has banned approvals of new telecommunications equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies, ZTE and others because they pose “an unacceptable risk” to US national security. 
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.7% before paring losses by more than half. Gauges in Hong Kong briefly tumbled more than 4% as citizens in major Chinese cities took to the streets to express anger over Covid curbs, complicating the path to
reopening.  TSMC and other Asian Apple suppliers fell after a Reuters report that production of iPhones could drop by at least 30% at Foxconn’s plant on worker protests.  Equity benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan fell more than 1%, with the latter also hurt
by the ruling party’s resounding defeat in island-wide local elections. Hang Seng Tech -1.9%, Hang Seng Index -1.6%, Taiwan -1.5%, Kospi -1.2%, China’s CSI 300 -1.1%, ASX 200 -0.4%. Vietnam +3.5%, Philippines +1.1%, Sensex +0.3%.   

FIXED INCOME: 
                                        

Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the curve continuing to flatten, pivoting around a little-changed 10-year yield after
it earlier declined as much as 5.9bp to lowest since Oct. 5.  The recession signal from the US yield curve between 3 months and 10 years inverted further to almost 70 basis points – its most negative in almost 22 years. Inverted 2s10s curve reached -81.1bp,
a new cycle low; flattening trend has support from bigger-than-average index duration extension in month-end rebalancing. 2 year yield ~4.46%, 5 year yield ~3.85%, 10 year yield ~3.67%.       

METALS: 
                               

Gold has reversed earlier gains and is roughly flat in choppy trading.  Gold ticked higher as a retreat in the dollar made
bullion more attractive for other currency holders, drawing further support from some safe-haven demand from China amid wide protests over its strict COVID-19 curbs. Investors will keep a close eye on US economic data this week for signs the Fed can ease off
on rate hikes next month. On the slate are the central bank’s favored inflation metric and nonfarm payrolls.  Spot gold is -0053%, silver -1.7%.          

ENERGY:      

Oil prices fell to their lowest levels this year as protestors clashed with police in China, the world’s biggest crude importer,
stoking concern about the outlook for fuel demand.  The global oil market is signaling a potential shift, as traders and analysts worry about reduced crude demand and an oversupplied market in the coming months.  Adding to the outlook for higher supply, the
US moved to grant super major Chevron Corp. a license to resume oil production in Venezuela after sanctions had halted all drilling activities almost three years ago. OPEC+ is set to meet to consider output levels on December 4. Meanwhile, Group of Seven (G7)
and European Union diplomats have been discussing a price cap on Russian oil of between $65 and $70 a barrel, with the aim of limiting revenue to fund Moscow’s military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets. WTI sank below $74 a barrel
following three weeks of losses, while Brent traded around $81. Speculators have been forced to markedly reduce bullish bets, posting the sixth-largest reduction in net-long positions on record for Brent last week.  WTI -2.75%, Brent -2.75%, US Nat Gas -3.25%.
    

CURRENCIES:  
                     

Broad dollar gains reversed quickly overnight, as 10-year US Treasury yields skidded to their lowest in almost two months.
The yen rallied, hitting a three-month high versus the dollar as a surge in Covid infections in China and protests against restrictions spurred demand for havens. Rising concerns over growth and stability in the world’s second-largest economy triggered selling
in commodity currencies including the Australian dollar.  Australia’s risk-sensitive currency fell as much as 1.3% after Chinese citizens took to the streets and university campuses to vent their frustrations on local officials and the Communist Party.  Deutsche
Bank said in its 2023 economic outlook that it sees the euro/dollar exchange rate rising steadily to $1.10 by the end of 2023. US$ Index -0.35%, GBPUSD is flat, USDJPY -0.6%, EURUSD +0.65%, AUDUSD -0.7%, USDCAD +0.5%.                       

Bitcoin -2%;  Ethereum -3.5%.    

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
  

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

UPGRADES:

• AB InBev ADRs (ABI BB) raised to overweight at JPMorgan; PT $70
• Activision Blizzard (ATVI) raised to buy at Truist Secs
• Activision Blizzard (ATVI) raised to overweight at Wells Fargo
• Affiliated Managers (AMG) raised to buy at Jefferies; PT $192
• BRF ADRs (BRFS3 BZ) raised to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $2.50
• BorgWarner (BWA) raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $45
• Coherent Corp (COHR) raised to buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $50
• Live Nation (LYV) raised to buy at Citi; PT $82
• Melco Resorts ADRs (MLCO) raised to overweight at JPMorgan; PT $10
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) raised to buy at President Capital Management
• PerkinElmer (PKI) raised to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $145
• Southern Copper (SCCO) raised to outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $69
• TransAlta Renewables (RNW CN) raised to buy at Industrial Alliance
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) raised to overweight at JPMorgan; PT $91

DOWNGRADES:

• AppLovin (APP) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $20
• Aptiv (APTV) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $105
• Beyond Meat (BYND) cut to underweight at Barclays; PT $10
• DraftKings (DKNG) cut to underweight at JPMorgan; PT $12
• First Solar (FSLR) cut to neutral at JPMorgan; PT $190
• Generac (GNRC) cut to hold at Argus
• Imago (IMGO) cut to hold at Stifel; PT $36
• Kforce (KFRC) cut to market perform at William Blair
• Korn Ferry (KFY) cut to market perform at William Blair
• Linde (LIN) cut to sell at Banco Sabadell; PT $334.43
• Lufax ADRs (LU) cut to hold at Daiwa; PT $1.80
• Lufax ADRs (LU) cut to hold at HSBC; PT $2
• Lufax ADRs (LU) cut to underperform at Credit Suisse; PT $1.40
• Lufax ADRs (LU) cut to underweight at JPMorgan; PT $1.60
• Penn Entertainment Inc (PENN) cut to neutral at JPMorgan; PT $39
• Playtika (PLTK) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12
• PropertyGuru Group (PGRU) cut to accumulate at Phillip Secs; PT $5.30
• Sciplay (SCPL) cut to hold at Truist Secs
• Shutterstock (SSTK) cut to market perform at JMP
• Ternium ADRs (TX) cut to neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $35
• TransDigm (TDG) cut to equal-weight at Wells Fargo; PT $660
• Twilio (TWLO) cut to hold at Jefferies; PT $50
• Tyson (TSN) cut to underweight at Barclays; PT $58
• Williams-Sonoma (WSM) cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $100
• XPeng ADRs (XPEV) cut to underperform at Jefferies; PT $4.20
• Yatsen ADRs (YSG) cut to add at Citic Securities; PT $1.30

INITIATIONS:

• Ambac Financial (AMBC) rated new neutral at Compass Point; PT $18
• Assured Guaranty (AGO) rated new buy at Compass Point; PT $84
• Halozyme (HALO) rated new overweight at Wells Fargo
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) rated new outperform at CICC; PT $54
• Lattice Semi (LSCC) rated new hold at Baptista Research; PT $75.90
• Li Auto ADRs (LI) rated new buy at DBS Bank; PT $29
• Li Auto ADRs (LI) reinstated buy at Jefferies; PT $20.66
• MBIA (MBI) rated new neutral at Compass Point; PT $14
• NIO Inc. ADRs (NIO) reinstated hold at Jefferies; PT $11.27
• OmniAb (OABI) rated new buy at Stifel; PT $12
• Packaging Corp (PKG) rated new underperform at Baptista Research
• RPM International (RPM) rated new underperform at Baptista Research
• Skyworks (SWKS) rated new outperform at Baptista Research; PT $116.50
• Televisa ADRs (TLEVICPO MM) reinstated outperform at Itau BBA; PT $11
• Trip.com ADRs (TCOM) rated new buy at DBS Bank; PT $39
• Unity Software (U) resumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27.50
• XPeng ADRs (XPEV) rated new buy at DBS Bank; PT $12.50
• Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) rated new overweight at Wells Fargo

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC