Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Friday March 24, 2023                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES 
 8:30ET Durable Goods; 9:30ET Fed’s Bullard speaks; 9:45ET Services/Manufacturing PMIs

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• An asteroid with the potential to wipe out a city will pass between
  the earth and the moon this weekend
• Twitter will begin removing so-called legacy verified marks from
  user accounts next week
• North Korea warned of a “radioactive tsunami” from a new underwater
  drone it tested
• The UK and the EU will sign off on their new Brexit deal for Northern
  Ireland today

Global stocks were pressured overnight and safe-haven buying supported government bonds as concerns about the stability
of the banking system lingered. Deutsche Bank shares plunged, putting the health of another globally systemic important bank in the spotlight heading into the weekend. Deutsche Bank’s 5-year credit-default swaps widened on Thursday, in what Reuters reported
was the largest one-day rise in its history.  Resilient euro-zone economic data published today suggests European Central Bank policymakers have more work to do to subdue inflation. S&P Global’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, seen as a good gauge
of overall economic health, bounced to a 10-month high of 54.1 in March from February’s 52.0. The services industry PMI jumped to 55.6 this month from 52.7.  Growth in Germany expanded for a second month, boosted by a revival in services that more than offset
a manufacturing decline.  It was a similar story in France and Britain. UK retail sales rose 1.2% in February, faster than the 0.2% consensus. Meanwhile, investors are fleeing to cash in the biggest rush since the onset of the pandemic, according to BofA. 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower, wiping out earlier gains, with a risk-averse mood spreading through markets ahead of the weekend. Traders remained
wary of problems in the banking sector that have built up during the Federal Reserve’s rapid hiking cycle. US lenders slumped Thursday even after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers she was prepared for further steps to protect deposits if needed.
Banks borrowed over $110 billion at the Federal Reserve’s discount window in the latest week, with the hefty drawdown of emergency credit suggesting some lenders were now unable to secure funds elsewhere. Citizens Financial is set to submit a bid for SVB’s
private banking arm, Reuters reported. Customers Bancorp is also said to be exploring a deal for all or part of SVB.        

Futures ahead of the bell: E-mini S&P -0.9%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, Dow -1%. 

In pre-market trading, First Republic Bank (FRC -6%) shares whipsaw as investors digest Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments.  US cryptocurrency-exposed
stocks decline, taking a pause from recent gains as the price of Bitcoin falls amid broader risk-off sentiment. ReNew Energy Global (RNW) gains as much as 12% after Bloomberg reported that the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is exploring buying the shares
of the power producer that it doesn’t already own and taking the Nasdaq-listed firm private. Block Inc. (SQ) is down 2%, extending a 15% drop from the prior day in the wake of a report from short-seller Hindenburg Research. Joann (JOAN) slumped 6% in extended
trading on Thursday after the fabric retailer reported adjusted earnings that missed. Oxford Industries (OXM) fell 5% in post-market trading after the owner of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer issued a forecast for net sales that trailed the average analyst
estimate. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) gains 5% after UK’s Competition and Markets Authority updated its provisional findings. Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) rises 8% after the biotechnology company posted a narrower-than-expected loss in the 4Q. Scholastic Corp.
(SCHL) tumbles 17% after the publishing company cut its year revenue growth view.

European stocks fell, being led lower by banks on concerns over the stability of the financial sector where there are fresh
signs of stress.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is sliding for a second straight day with Deutsche Bank AG declining 14% after a sharp jump in its credit default swaps. On Thursday, Deutsche CDS had their largest one-day gain on record, based on Refinitiv data.
UBS Group AG shares dropped over 6% as Bloomberg reported that it’s one of the banks under scrutiny in a US Justice Department probe into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions. The Stoxx 600 Bank Index, which does not include
shares of Credit Suisse or UBS, is heading for a monthly decline of ~20%. Banks with high exposure to corporate lending also declined. Commerzbank slid 9% and Soc Gen 7%. Stoxx 600 -2%, DAX -2.5%, CAC -2.4%, FTSE 100 -2%. Banks -6.1%, Energy -4.2%, Autos -3%,
REITs -2.8%, Tech -2%.     

Shares in Asia were mixed with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower by 0.2%. Hang Seng underperformed, while Chinese tech shares
extended their rally on the back of positive earnings. Tech stocks in Hong Kong advanced for a fourth day to close at its highest level in a month. Lenovo led the gain, with JPMorgan lifting its recommendation on a bottoming of PC demand.  Asian financial
stocks dropped as much as 0.9%, tracking US peers. South Korean chip suppliers soared after Japan ended restrictions on exports to its neighbor. Japan’s inflation excluding fresh food slowed for the first time in more than a year to 3.1% in February from 4.2%.
In other news, Hong Kong will cut taxes for family offices as it aims to attract the world’s wealthiest to the city. Toshiba shares jumped after its board accepted the privatization offer of a consortium led by investment fund Japan Industrial Partners to
acquire it. Indonesia and Philippines +1%, Hang Seng Tech +0.6%, Taiwan +0.3%, Vietnam +0.15%. Topix -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.3%, Kospi -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Sensex -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields fell amid the haven buying, with the US two-year yield down 25 basis points, while those on German and UK
10-year notes dropped more than 15 points.  US 2 year notes, among the most sensitive to policy changes, is down over 40 basis points since the Fed decision on Wednesday. US swap rates show traders are betting on rates being reduced later this year even as
Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted Wednesday that cuts are not his “base case.”  The curve steepened as traders continue to price out rate-hike premium for the May meeting and start pricing for cuts as early as June. US yields remain richer by 22b across front-end
into early US session, while the rest of the curve is richer by 17bp across belly to 9bp out to long-end. 10 year yield ~3.3%. 2 year yield ~3.6%.          

METALS: 

Gold held steady after rising for two sessions as traders assessed mixed signals on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Bullion is still being supported by haven demand following the collapse of three US banks and earlier turmoil at Credit Suisse Group AG. The Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance coupled with the recent banking crisis that highlighted the impact of high borrowing
costs, has increased investor confidence in the gold.  Spot Gold +0.02%, silver +0.65%.           

ENERGY:      

Oil slid the most in over a week, tracking a slide in equity markets and feeling the effects of a stronger dollar. Crude
remains on course for its steepest first-quarter drop since 2020, when the pandemic wiped out demand. A potential US recession, robust Russian oil flows in the face of Western sanctions, and strikes at refineries in France have all proved bearish forces. Exxon’s
largest oil refinery in France faces at least a 10-day halt because of industrial action.  A change is on the horizon for oil demand, with India set to eclipse China as the most important driver of global growth. India’s population is swelling and its transition
from traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled transport is expected to lag other regions, whereas China’s adoption of electric vehicles is skyrocketing.  WTI -3.5%, Brent -3.2%. US Nat Gas +2.7%.   

CURRENCIES:               

Currency traders rushed for haven exposure following a plunge in European stocks led by the banking sector. The US dollar
headed higher after six straight days of declines. The yen advanced to the highest in six weeks, boosted by demand for haven assets. Sterling is down considerably as business activity continues to show modest expansion and is the driver behind economic growth
in the UK. The Euro was a clear laggard, perhaps understandably, given Deutsche Bank sits at the heart of the Euro system. If Deutsche Bank’s future is thrown into doubt it raises the prospect that the ECB might have to end its rate hiking cycle imminently. 
US$ Index +0.6% GBPUSD -0.6%, USDJPY -0.7%, EURUSD -0.9%, AUDUSD -0.7%, NZDUSD -0.7%.          

Bitcoin -1.8%, Ethereum -3%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance

UPGRADES:

• Axonics Inc (AXNX) raised to buy at Needham
• Diana Shipping (DSX) raised to buy at Arctic Securities; PT $4.80
• Eagle Bulk (EGLE) raised to buy at Arctic Securities; PT $63
• First Horizon (FHN) raised to overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $25
• Genco Shipping (GNK) raised to buy at Arctic Securities; PT $21
• Genuine Parts (GPC) raised to buy at Truist Secs
• Healthcare Services (HCSG) raised to hold at Jefferies; PT $14
• KB Home (KBH) raised to neutral at JPMorgan; PT $42.50
• Regeneron (REGN) raised to buy at Jefferies; PT $925
• Star Bulk (SBLK) raised to buy at Arctic Securities; PT $28

DOWNGRADES:

• Block Inc (SQ) cut to neutral at Atlantic Equities; PT $70
• Coinbase (COIN) cut to underperform at Cowen; PT $36
• TCR2 (TCRR) cut to neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $1.72

INITIATIONS:

• 8×8 (EGHT) rated new buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Adaptimmune ADRs (ADAP) rated new buy at Bryan Garnier; PT $3.60
• CalciMedica (CALC) rated new outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $14
• Cintas (CTAS) rated new hold at Baptista Research; PT $471
• Dow (DOW) rated new hold at Baptista Research; PT $57
• Eastman Chemical (EMN) rated new hold at Baptista Research; PT $90.10
• Farfetch (FTCH) rated new market perform at JMP
• Five9 (FIVN) rated new buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $85
• I-80 Gold (IAU CN) reinstated buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$5
• Immatics (IMTX) rated new buy at Bryan Garnier; PT $16
• Immunocore ADRs (IMCR) rated new buy at Bryan Garnier; PT $72
• Legend Biotech ADRs (LEGN) rated new outperform at RBC; PT $73
• RingCentral (RNG) rated new buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Societal CDMO Inc (SCTL) rated new outperform at RBC; PT $2
• Stelco Holdings (STLC CN) reinstated sector perform at RBC; PT C$52
• Zoom Video (ZM) rated new neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke

Head Trader, Americas

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC