Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Friday January 15, 2021                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  
8:30ET Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Empire State Index; 9:15ET Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization; 10:00ET Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories: 11:30ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 1:30ET Biden speaks on vaccine rollout

Biden outlined his stimulus plan that includes $415 billion aimed at the COVID-19 response, $1 trillion in direct relief to households, and roughly
$440 billion for small businesses and communities.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS: 

• US says Capitol rioters meant to 'capture and assassinate' officials, according to a court filing
  
• "Q Shaman" to appear in federal court today
  
• Apple's app store removed social media platform Wimkin over content that included calls for a civil war
• US plans fresh Iran sanctions today, related to metals industry

Global shares stumbled as hopes of a fiscal boost provided by a $1.9 trillion US stimulus plan were stifled by the prospect of stricter lockdowns
in France and Germany and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in China.  The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, was 0.2% lower. Sentiment was also soured by a further strain in Sino-U.S. relations after the Trump administration imposed
more sanctions on China officials and blacklisted 11 companies. On the virus front, the global death toll from the pandemic is about to hit 2 million. China reported the highest number of daily COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months today, capping a week that
has resulted in more than 28 million people under lockdown.

EQUITIES: 
 

Investor reaction to Biden's stimulus plan has been muted so far as investors awaited big bank earnings and some key economic data.  Biden outlined
a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal Thursday night, saying bold investment was needed to jump-start the economy and accelerate the distribution of vaccines to bring the coronavirus under control. Transition officials said the plan will followed up with
another recovery package in the coming weeks. Equity index futures are lower as investors digested the prospect of rising taxes to pay for the plan. The stimulus proposal is far from a done deal, and could be watered down under Congressional opposition.  US
earnings season kicks into full swing with results from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo today.   

December E-mini S&P futures -0.35%, Nasdaq is flat, Russell 2000 futures -1.1%, Dow futures -0.5%. 3764 is the .382 retrace of the year in SPX
and we are looking for a test of this initial support today.

JPMorgan's adjusted revenue beat as the company reported a larger provision for credit losses than expected. Revenue from investment banking,
equities and FICC topped estimates. 14 day RSI is at its highest level since December 2016 (overbought). JPM is down 0.8% pre-market. WELLS FARGO 4Q REV. $17.93B, EST. $18.09B (-3%). Citigroup Q4 Rev $16.5Bln (est 16.73Bln)

US equity funds saw weekly inflows of $3.6 billion into financial/banking sector funds, the largest inflow since 2008, according to Lipper. XLF
is down 0.6% pre-market. 

Energy sector funds drew $2.8 billion, and international equity funds attracted $3.9 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since February 2013.
XLE is down 1.25% pre-market.

The tech sector has been underperforming of late, but remains positive relative to the broader market above the 200 day mvg avg in XLK vs SPY.

Small caps have outperformed again this week, but nearing potential failure area in IWM vs SPY.

European stocks are set to end a four-week winning streak, as the prospect of tighter lockdowns in Germany and France weigh. The pan-European
STOXX 600 is down 0.8%, as energy firms and miners lead declines. Siemens Energy (ENR GY) fell 6% after General Electric accused a subsidiary of the company of using stolen trade secrets to rig bids for lucrative contracts. The FTSE 100 is 0.85% weaker, weighed
by data showing Britain’s economy shrank in November for the first time since the initial COVID-19 lockdown last spring. Germany’s DAX is down 0.9%, led by Adidas which is nearly 3% lower. Basic Resources sector is down 2%, Oil & Gas -1.7%, Retail -1.5%; CAC
-1%

Stocks in Asia were mostly lower, weighed down by Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi (-10.25%) after the Trump Administration
blacklisted the firm and 10 other companies. Investors will have to divest holdings by November. The Shanghai Composite was flat, but Chinese banks climbed after two lenders reported stronger-than-estimated earnings.  South Korea underperformed as Samsung
Electronics fell, while Japanese shares also declined, led by automakers on supply chain concerns and chip shortages. Taiwan shares gave up earlier gains despite Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s advance. Hong Kong stocks hit near one-year closing high,
buoyed by robust mainland inflows. South Korea’s Kospi underperformed, posting its fastest decline in more than two months on profit taking, -2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
  . 

Treasuries beyond the 2-year are higher, holding most of their Asia-session gains, which were made after President-elect Biden released details
of pandemic relief spending proposal. On the week 10-year yield is lower by 1.3bp after retreating from highest level since March, reached Tuesday.

METALS: 

Spot gold is flat after a small gain earlier overnight on fresh coronavirus-led lockdowns in Europe and on dovish policy cues from the US Federal
Reserve. A resilient dollar remained a headwind for bullion. The big selloff in gold ETFs continued as funds sold holdings worth $795 million in the last session. Feb gold is holding below its 200 day moving average, but GLD is holding on above its.

ENERGY:  

Oil prices fell as concerns about Chinese cities in lockdown due to coronavirus outbreaks tempered a rally driven by strong import data. Brent
is heading for the first weekly decline in three weeks. WTI futures declined more than 1% after hitting an 11-month high earlier in the week, while investors assessed what impact a potential US stimulus package will have on driving fuel demand higher. This
week has seen the annual commodity index rebalancing take place, a move that was expected to see as much as $9 billion flow into the oil market.  But, news that France is extending tighter curfew measures and Germany is considering strengthening its lockdown
weighs.

CURRENCIES:  

The pound slipped on fading global risk appetite as investors digested US President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic-relief plan. The
US dollar recouped Thursday’s decline on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that a rate rise is off the agenda.  The euro heads for a third day of losses, extending its biggest weekly slide in three months. Most emerging Asian currencies
fell, reversing gains earlier, as concerns grew that President-elect Joe Biden may struggle to gain support for his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• OBSV +45.6% (+$1.15)
• DBVT +40.6% (+$1.52); DBV Jumps; Peanut Patch Update Avoids Worst Case, Kempen Says
• FPRX +21.6% (+$3.44)
• POLA +14.6% (+$1.29)
• LRN +13.9% (+$3.30); Education Firm Stride Up as Biden Plan Includes K-12 Funding
• ORBC +13.8% (+$1.15)
• EH +13.2% (+$5.86)
• ACCD +12.5% (+$5.98); Accolade Climbs Premarket as Analysts Cheer Expert Opinion Deal
• BNGO +11.4% (+$0.79)
• TLRY +7.8% (+$1.45)
• KERN +6.9% (+$0.45)
• UAVS +6.6% (+$0.62)
• XELA +6.3% (+$0.05)
• CURI +6.3% (+$1.06)
• TIGR +6.2% (+$0.85)
• ACTC +6.2% (+$1.56)
• GSX +6% (+$3.48)

Decliners

• DDD -8.2% (-$2.61); 3D Systems Slides as JPMorgan Cuts to Sell After 205% Rally
• EAF -7.4% (-$0.86); GrafTech Holder to Offer Shares Said at $10.90-11.10/Share
• SSYS -6.2% (-$2.02); Stratasys Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $23
• RIOT -5.8% (-$1.68)
• UMC -5.5% (-$0.52)
• FRO -4.7% (-$0.31)
• FTFT -4.5% (-$0.33)
• GRUB -4.3% (-$3.22)
• FCEL -3.9% (-$0.68)
• PLUG -3.7% (-$2.49)
• MARA -3.6% (-$0.88)
• SPOT -3.6% (-$12.3); Spotify Sinks After Citi Says Podcast Shift ‘May Not Be Working’
• BBL -3.5% (-$2.11)
• MIK -3.3% (-$0.57)
• BHP -3.1% (-$2.31)
• PRGS -3.1% (-$1.51); Progress Software Targets Rise After Results and Outlook
• RIO -3% (-$2.55)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC