Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Wednesday February 17, 2021                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES  
8:30ET Retail Sales, Producer Price Index final demand; 9:00ET Fed's Barkin speaks; 9:15ET Industrial Production, Fed's Rosengren speaks; 10:00ET  Business Inventories, Home Builders Index; 1:00ET $27 billion 20-year bond auction; 2:00ET FOMC minutes 

Biden to speak with labor union leaders today on infrastructure

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:   

• Ford Going Almost Fully Electric by End of Decade in Europe
  
• More than 100 million Americans are under some kind of winter weather advisory
  
• Pfizer and Moderna will speed up increases of US supplies after legal threats, Biden said
• The weather stopped all testing and vaccinations in Chicago
  

The global stock rally that has lifted markets to record highs paused amid rising Treasury bond yields and deepening concerns that a COVID recovery
will bring faster inflation.  In the short term, however, investors expect central banks to keep monetary policy loose and minutes later today from the US Federal Reserve’s January meeting are expected to reinforce that view. Japan started its vaccination
drive, but shots for those over the age of 65 are not set to start until April.

EQUITIES: 
  Earnings include Shopify, Baidu, Twilio, Analog Devices, Synopsys, Hilton, Garmin, Pioneer Natural Resources

Futures on US equities indexes are little changed ahead of retail sales report, as shares in Europe fall slightly with investors assessing earnings
reports. Verizon Communications and Chevron Corp. jump higher in pre-market trading after SEC filings reveal new positions in each for Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. TDH Holdings shares climb as much as 435% in US premarket trading on retail touts, while
pet-supply peer Dogness International rise as much as 226%. Pet food and product retailers have been strong as more people bought and adopted pets during pandemic-induced lockdowns.  The rapid rollout of vaccines in the US is falling victim to the cold snap,
with vaccination sites shut down in Chicago and power outages causing delays in Houston.

E-mini S&P futures +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 futures -0.15%, Dow futures +0.05%. ES has 3936 area as initial resistance. The advance/decline
line continues to be a positive for the overall market…

PETZ is currently up 250% pre-market on trading volume already significantly above the daily average

Value outperforming in recent days and a clean breakout above the 200dma in R2000 value versus growth may lead to further upside momentum. 

European stocks edged lower as investors assessed a busy day for earnings. The Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.35% amid a mixed bag of corporate results.
Retail is lagging the most, -2.6%, with financial services and construction also weighing. Miners (+1.3%), oil & gas, and banks are the three sectors in the green. Swedish cloud computing services provider Sinch AB surged 13.9% after it agreed to buy U.S.-based
communications company Inteliquent.  Kering (-7%) dragged retail shares lower after its Gucci brand missed estimates, and British American Tobacco slid over 4% following its full-year results. Rio Tinto Group climbed 3% after reporting a 20% jump in annual
profit on a surge in iron ore prices. Overall, analysts expect earnings at STOXX 600 firms to have fallen 19.9% in the fourth quarter, steeper than the 18.2% estimate issued last week, according to Refinitiv data. Still, earnings are expected to rebound nearly
43% in the first quarter.

Asian stocks erased a loss to trade little changed, as stocks surged in Taiwan and fell in South Korea. TSMC was the biggest boost to the MSCI
Asia Pacific Index after a report said the chipmaker plans to boost advanced process production amid rising demand. The Taiex climbed 3.5%. Vietnam’s key equity index also gained more than 3.5%. Internet giants Tencent and Meituan helped power advances in
Hong Kong shares as the Hang Seng index gained 1.1%.  South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.9%, dragged lower by Samsung Electronics after it halted operations at a Texas plant due to the recent blackouts.  Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.58%, but travel stocks firmed as
the nation started its Covid-19 vaccination program. China remains shut for a week-long holiday and will reopen Thursday.

FIXED INCOME: 
                                       

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries dipped to around 1.28% after touching the highest since February 2020.  Implied volatility on 10-year
swap rates jumped as 10-year yields rose 11 basis points on Tuesday to 1.31%, taking this year’s gains to around 40 basis points. However, Kansas City Federal Reserve president Esther George sounded unfazed by higher yields on Tuesday. Comments from San Francisco
Fed President Mary Daly did little to soothe the market's concerns after she that inflation isn't "a risk we should think about right now". Today’s session includes host of data led by retail sales and industrial production ahead of the 20-year auction at
1pm. The Fed will also release minutes of the January meeting. Treasury yields lower by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve, knocking 2s10s, 5s30s flatter by 1.4bp and 1.2bp, following aggressive steepening Tuesday.

We continue to target the 1.48% area in 10 year yield.

METALS: 

Precious metals slumped across the board, led by platinum. Gold fell to the lowest in more than two months as its allure suffered from a stronger
dollar and a recent rally in Treasury yields on expectations of an economic recovery. Gold is down for a fifth day and down about 6% so far this year. Meanwhile, holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to
the lowest since June. ETF purchases were a key driver of gold’s rally to a record in August and could further pressure prices if outflows are sustained.

ENERGY:  

Oil fluctuated with WTI futures around $60 a barrel amid a deepening energy crisis in the US.   Total US oil production plunged by one third,
the most ever, as an unprecedented cold blast freezes well operations across the central part of the country according to industry executives.  Texas warned outages will last a few more days, backtracking on earlier promises to have power back last night.
The Texas blackouts underscore the US electric system's need for additional power lines and large-scale storage systems, experts said. More than 100 million Americans are under some kind of winter weather advisory as another round of dangerous weather tracks
from the South to the East Coast, the NOAA said.

WTI futures have next key Fibonacci resistance around $61.83 area, but brent has more room before it hits next resistance. RBOB is testing its
potential reversal level…

CURRENCIES:  

The dollar rose against low-yielding currencies, reaching a five-month high against the yen, as US bond yields jumped on the prospects of further
economic recovery and a possible acceleration in inflation. The yen is sensitive to U.S. rates because Japanese yields are anchored, and higher US returns can attract investment flows out of yen and into dollars. It fell to a five-month low against the dollar
and has lost 2.7% this year. The pound fell the most in over a week versus the dollar, ignoring an inflation beat. Sterling rose to a 10-month high against the euro as investors bet Britain's COVID-19 vaccinations would help its economy reopen quickly. The
euro slipped, after reversing short lived gains on Tuesday following strong German economic sentiment data. The South African rand is among the worst EMFX performers despite a solid uptick in CPI.   

The spot US$ index is up nearly 1% after holding the short term key Fibonacci retracement level.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• PETZ +206.7% (+$6.47); Pets Stocks Surge in U.S. Premarket Trading on Retail Touts
• SOS +31.8% (+$3.76); SOS Among Most Cited in StockTwits
• TUSK +21.4% (+$1.10); Mammoth Energy Announces Growth of Engineering Services Company
• GRNQ +19.6% (+$0.56)
• ACIC +18.5% (+$2.61)
• WBAI +17.6% (+$4.75)
• SGFY +16% (+$5.79); Signify Health Announces Closing of IPO and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares
• ALT +15.2% (+$3.24); Baker Bros. Adds AbCellera Biologics, Exits Exact Sciences: 13F
• OSS +14.6% (+$1.06)
• EBON +14.5% (+$1.14); Crypto Stocks Rally Again as Bitcoin Hits Another Record
• SINO +14.1% (+$1.22)
• RIOT +13.8% (+$8.24)
• VSTM +13.7% (+$0.34); Verastem Surges After Baker Bros Takes a 6% Stake
• KRNT +13.3% (+$12.9); Kornit Digital Raised to Buy at Goldman
• AHAC +12.8% (+$1.34); Humacyte Nears SPAC Deal to Go Public: Reuters
• EMAN +12.8% (+$0.59)
• MREO +12.1% (+$0.42)
• VIR +11.6% (+$7.82); Glaxo Increasing Equity Investment in Vir Biotech by $120m
• DMAC +10.6% (+$1); DiaMedica Rated New Buy at Roth Capital; PT $38
• HUIZ +10.4% (+$0.94)
• MARA +10.1% (+$4.40)

Decliners

• SHIP -22.6% (-$0.51); Seanergy Maritime Prices 44.2m Shares at $1.70 Each in ATM Offer
• KAR -20.4% (-$3.76); KAR Auction Services Inc Cut to Sell at Guggenheim
• SCKT -19.1% (-$3.94)
• CTXR -15.4% (-$0.26); Citius Pharma Prices $76.5m Registered Direct ATM Offering
• SNDL -13.7% (-$0.30)
• AGFY -13.2% (-$2.11); Agrify Prices $75M Offering of Stock
• TOPS -10.8% (-$0.40)
• EH -10.4% (-$4.81)
• WIMI -9.6% (-$1.14)
• LKCO -9.3% (-$0.28); Luokung Technology Rises 89%: Chinese U.S. Listings
• IMUX -9% (-$2.28); Immunic’s IMU-838 Shows Clinical Activity in Moderate Covid-19
• MVIS -8.6% (-$2.04); MicroVision Falls After Announcing $50 Million ATM Offering
• HQY -6.5% (-$5.59); HealthEquity Prices Offering of Stock
• OMF -6.4% (-$3.44); Parsifal Capital Management Buys New 1.2% Position in OneMain
• TRCH -6.3% (-$0.27)
• BWAY -6% (-$0.60)
• AU -5.6% (-$1.27)
• AEI -5.5% (-$1.50)
• BLCT -5.3% (-$1.07)

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC