Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

Thursday October 1, 2020                                                        Trading
Desk: (312) 236-8907

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  
8:30ET Weekly Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Spending, Core Inflation; 9:45ET Markit Manufacturing Index; 10:00ET ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending; 11ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 3:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks

Initial jobless claims are not expected to show much improvement from last week's 870,000 total. The number comes as more companies announce
they are going to move ahead with layoffs.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:

• Amazon, Google, Microsoft among top five contributors to Biden's candidate campaign
  link
• Trump issues fresh rare earth mining executive order in bid to end China’s dominance
  
  link
• U.S. oil refiner Marathon Petroleum cuts 12% of staff because of pandemic
  
• American Airlines and United Airlines will start laying off a combined 32,000 workers
  
• US retirement plan assets jump 11.2% in second quarter
• Fed Extends Limits On Buybacks, Dividends Until End Of 2020
  

Renewed U.S. stimulus hopes lifted global markets into what is set to be an explosive fourth quarter. Worldwide coronavirus cases approached
34 million, with Germany reporting the highest number of infections since April while Poland and Israel set new daily records.

EQUITIES:  

Index futures climbed overnight on renewed stimulus hopes. U.S. stock markets have been whipsawed this week by speculation over whether lawmakers
will reach an agreement to provide more economic aid.  The administration has proposed a coronavirus stimulus package to House Democrats worth more than $1.5 trillion, and hopes are rising that both parties will reach a compromise. The House of Representatives
postponed a vote on a $2.2 trillion Democratic coronavirus plan to allow more time to agree a bipartisan deal. PepsiCo, Bed Bath & Beyond and Constellation Brands all report earnings.

December E-mini S&P futures +0.9%,
Nasdaq +1.3%%, Russell 2000 futures +0.8%, Dow futures +0.9%. SPX seems likely to test the .618 retracement of the recent break (3443) after holding a s/t .618 support.

QQQ needs a settlement above the 279 level for upside momentum shift

After European markets ended the third quarter in a subdued manner on worries about a resurgence in European COVID-19 cases, Brexit deal and
the US election, the mood brightened on Thursday amid signs of progress in a US fiscal bill.  Retail sector stocks are leading gains while banks and travel shares weigh. Hennes & Mauritz, which owns H&M clothing stores, surged 8% after pretax profits beat
even the highest broker estimate.  Chip stocks rallied after STMicroelectronics (+6%) raised its revenue guidance. Bayer AG fell as much as 13% in Frankfurt after the agriculture and pharma giant issued a profit warning.  Engine maker Rolls-Royce Holdings
fell 10% after announcing a share sale. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, CAC +0.8%, DAX +0.2% / Retail sector +2.5%, Utilities +1.7%, Technology +1.8%; Travel and Leisure -0.4%

Asian stocks gained, led by materials and finance. A slew of holidays saw markets in China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong closed. In Japan,
the Tokyo Stock Exchange halted trading for the entire day due to a failed switchover to backups following a hardware breakdown. This was the TSE’s first full-day suspension since it began all-electronic trading in 1999. The exchange will replace hardware
and is aiming to resume trading as normal tomorrow. Indian shares ended higher as sentiment got a boost from the federal government’s nod to open movie theatres, a surge in auto sales numbers and data showing a rebound in factory activity. The Nifty rose 1.5%
and the Sensex gained 1.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries beyond the 5-year are under slight pressure in early U.S. trading after equity futures rise above yesterday’s highs. Risk appetite
was stoked by signs of progress on U.S. fiscal stimulus. Long-end yields are cheaper by ~2bp, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s. The Treasury will announce sizes of next week’s auctions at 11am ET; $52b 3-year (+$2b) new issue, $35b 10-year and $23b 30-year reopenings
were projected in 3Q refunding announcement.

METALS: 

Gold rose 0.6%, boosted by an easing dollar and increased investor confidence that there will be further U.S. fiscal stimulus measures to aid
the virus-beaten economy. Market participants await U.S. initial jobless claims data due today and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday for clues about the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy.

ENERGY:  

Oil prices fell 1.4% as rising coronavirus cases dampened the demand outlook, with further price pressure from a rise in OPEC output last month,
though losses were capped by renewed hopes for U.S. fiscal stimulus. Output in September was up 160,000 barrels per day from August, a Reuters survey found. The rise was largely on the back of higher supplies from Libya and Iran, both exempt from an oil supply
pact.

CURRENCIES:  

Sterling fell against the dollar and the euro after a report that Britain and the EU were still far apart on the key issue of state aid in Brexit
trade talks, with the launch of an EU legal case against the UK dealing another blow. The dollar fell as robust U.S. data and hopes for U.S. fiscal stimulus left investors confident enough to seek out riskier currencies. The Chinese yuan gained the most against
the dollar, reach a year-and-a-half high in the offshore market as a holiday in China dried up liquidity, exaggerating the move.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
(futures)    

Colors within the report:
Green
is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100  *Stars have added importance

Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:35am ET:

Advancers

• AEL +61.4% (+$13.5); Athene, MassMutual Bid $36/Share for American Equity: DJ
• AMAG +38.3% (+$3.60); Apollo’s Covis Is Said to Near Deal to Buy Amag Pharmaceutical
• CPE +23.4% (+$1.13); Callon Petroleum Announces $170 Million in Asset Monetizations, $300 Million Issuance of Secured Second Lien Notes
• FVAC +13% (+$1.77); Trump Moves to Expand Rare Earths Mining, Cites China Threat
• CATB +11.5% (+$0.71); Catabasis Reinstated Buy at HC Wainwright
• BBBY +10.8% (+$1.62); Bed Bath & Beyond 2Q Adjusted EPS Beats Highest Est.
• SAIL +9.3% (+$3.69); SailPoint Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Durable Growth Prospects
• PRVB +9.1% (+$1.17)
• AZUL +9% (+$1.19)
• PLL +7.3% (+$1.71)
• NKLA +7% (+$1.43); Nikola Gains Premarket, Poised to Rise for Second Day
• CYCN +6.9% (+$0.42)
• STM +6.8% (+$2.08)
• GT +5.9% (+$0.45); Goodyear Raised to Buy at Northcoast
• FUV +5.6% (+$0.37)
• CAMT +5.6% (+$0.86)
• PLTR +5.2% (+$0.49); Palantir, Asana Debuts Ride Stimulus Roller Coaster: ECM Watch
• VNE +4.9% (+$0.72)
• SSL +4.7% (+$0.36)
• KAR +4.7% (+$0.67); KAR Auction Services Inc Raised to Overweight at Stephens
• ALV +4.3% (+$3.12)

Decliners

• ZSAN -51.2% (-$0.83); Zosano Pharma Plunges After FDA Discipline Review Letter
• SELB -41.1% (-$1.02); Selecta Biosciences Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Selecta Biosciences Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• LOGC -27.3% (-$2.48); LogicBio Therapeutics to Offer Shrs
• SLNO -15.1% (-$0.38)
• SPI -14.6% (-$1.05)
• GNW -13.4% (-$0.45)
• CTIC -9.3% (-$0.20)
• JFIN -7.8% (-$0.26)
• GNFT -7.4% (-$0.39)
• SRNE -4.4% (-$0.49)
• IMXI -4.3% (-$0.62)
• AMBO -4.2% (-$0.21)
• PAR -3.7% (-$1.50); Par Technology Prices Offering of Stock
• BEAM -2.1% (-$0.52); Beam Therapeutics Offering Prices 5m Shares at $23.50/Share

David Wienke

Cabrera Capital Markets, LLC