|TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading desk, this is not research
DATA/HEADLINES: bond markets close at 2:00EST ahead of the holiday weekend
Global equities and index futures retreated as investors braced for tensions between the US and China after Beijing announced plans to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. Beijing said that they remained committed to implementing the phase-one trade deal with the US, despite tensions between both sides. Indian bonds rallied after an unscheduled rate cut and the Bank of Japan held its main rate while saying it will start a new lending program. AstraZeneca and Oxford University have started recruiting subjects for advanced human trials of its experimental Covid-19 vaccine due to begin in September. Moderna rises 3% to $69.98 after Fauci calls vaccine data ‘quite promising’. Donald Trump refused to wear a face mask for the cameras during a tour of the Ford factory – despite an official warning he could be banned from visiting Michigan if he did so.
Biden on CNBC this morning
U.S. equity index futures slipped as tensions between China and the U.S. intensified after Beijing announced plans to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday, with signs mounting that President Trump will make his tough stance on China a key element of his re-election bid. Yesterday, Trump said the U.S. would react “very strongly” if China pushed ahead with the national security legislation in Hong Kong, which they now have.
Index futures have pared losses, and are now in positive territory as bad news continues to have little impact. ES has initial resistance at 2955 area then key resistance at the 200dma (2996). We are looking for short term failure somewhere up here. Initial key support in ES is at 2893/94 (.382 of recent rally).
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 1.5% before paring losses, dragged down by food, insurance and miners. Nestle contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.7% Prudential had the largest drop, falling more than 7%. ECB minutes this morning state that a swift V-shaped recovery could probably be ruled out link. FTSE 100 fell 1% after U.K. retail sales declined 18.1% from March, the most since records began in 1988. Stoxx Europe 600 Index is currently trading -0.55%, DAX -0.4%, CAC -0.3%.
The risk-off tone took hold in Asia, where Hong Kong’s stock index plunged more than 5.5% after China confirmed that it would bypass the city’s legislature to implement national security laws. The announcement triggered immediate calls for fresh protests and sent the MSCI Hong Kong index to its worst loss since 2008. All markets in the region were down, with the Shanghai Composite falling for a third straight day, down 1.9%. China unveiled US$500 billion fiscal stimulus and will also issue special treasury bonds for the first time since 2007 link.
FIXED INCOME: next week we have supply in 2, 5, and 7 year notes
Treasury yields are richer by 0.5bp to 4bp across the curve into early US trading, holding most of their bull-flattening move during Asia session. The advance was spurred by the prospect of renewed political turmoil in Hong Kong after China introduced sweeping national security legislation. The global safety bid is favoring treasuries, as the new 20-year bond continues to outperform.
10 year future is holding between two short term .786 retraces.
Gold prices rose, following a sharp decline yesterday, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China lifted the metal’s safe-haven appeal, though a stronger dollar kept gains in check. Spot gold is up 0.5% after slipping 1.4% on Thursday.
Oil retreated from the highest level in more than two months with doubts emerging over the strength of China’s economic recovery and as tensions rose between China and the US. WTI plunged as much as 9.4% before trimming its losses to trade around $32 a barrel. Output cuts by major producers have been building up and stockpiles have been eroding. Inventories at the U.S. storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, shrank by the most on record last week.
Both WTI and Brent crude are holding initial key Fibonacci resistance, which makes sense after more than 100% gains off the April lows. Using the vwap at 29.81 as initial support in July WTI.
The yuan dipped as China’s National People’s Congress abandoned its decades-long practice of setting an annual GDP target amid uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. The pound weakened for a third day as data showed retail sales in the U.K. dropped by almost a fifth in April. Sterling edged lower against both the U.S. dollar and the euro as fresh data showed retail sales fell by a record 18% as the coronavirus crisis hammered the economy. Britain’s government borrowed more in April than it has in any month on record, pushing public debt close to 100% of GDP, the highest since 1963, data showed today. U.S.- China tensions boosted demand for the US dollar. Commodity currencies fell as investors sought safety, with the riskier Australian dollar down 0.7% before paring some of its losses.
TECHNICAL LEVELS: (futures)
Colors within the report: Green is always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21, Blue = 50, Brown = 100 *Stars have added importance
Equity movers in early trading, as of 7:34am EST: