Comanche Rain

agricultural, Charts, Commentary, News, Technical Analysis

1S in the northern half (the center of the old Comanche Empire) got some really good rains Sunday into Monday. As of Mon 10a central, a dozen stations reported 1.5 or more, and same number reported . The markets reaction to these rains was muted, mostly due to the southern areas of 1S being more dryland, and a little due to the bleeding out in the dollar.

 

We may wait a few days to see if the southern half of 1S will get some good rains, and then proceed to estimate Texas and the US crop. Last month we were in basic agreement with the crop at 19.0 Mb, but can confirm today that this number is rising. Is it over 20.0 Mb? We hope to have that answer Wed/Thur.

Varner View

Great demand, and looming large US and world crops, have the market vacillating and pivoting between 66c to 70c. We favor selling near 70c, and today offered a chance to do so. Buying came in today on softs spillover and broad CRB buying on a weaker $. US cotton has closed some of the gap between it and other world growths, and mill demand has pulled back compared to when price was sub 67c. Farmers can sell a little right here.

Technicals

Fridays letter had an error on the tech commentary, regards the Thursday high and the retrace. Those numbers should have been 6972 and 6980, not 6872 and 6880. One tech service is calling for a pretty steep rally for cotton based on weekly continuation. This service targets 7450 to 7850, whereas spot Oct today is at 7050. Our opinion remains that the 6980 high is the likely retrace, and cotton should be sold +6900.


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