The Dow Jones Futures COT Charts show Extreme Sentiments in the Net Positions of Large Speculative Traders & Commercial Traders.
The Large Speculators Net Position is shown in Green Line. (Dumb Money)
The Commercials Net Position is Shown in Blue Line. (Smart Money)
As it is evident from the chart, The Large Specs are extremely Long , & the Commercial Traders are extremely Short.
These Extreme positions are very Identical to the Extremes seen back in 2014, 2012 & 2011.
And each time These two groups reached extremes the market always corrected.
Also seen in 2014 , is that The market in consolidation also saw extremes reached in the Net positions of these two groups. Notice how the market broke out only when the Net Positions withdrew from extreme levels.
Another Very Important Observation is that Each time The Net Positions reached Extreme Levels The Speculators always ended up on the Wrong Side. Whereas the Commercials were always on the right side. Here the Smart Traders or Smart Money are the COMMERCIALS !!
Therefore the market now cannot breakout unless the Extreme Sentiments retracts , ie Net Positions of these groups withdraw from All time Highs.
WHY SHOULD THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT ????
The Net Positions of Speculators & Commercials show similar Extremes in Emini S&P 500 Futures As well. The Speculative Long Positions are at 18 month Highs !!!!!
The Commercial Short Positions are at 12 month Highs!!
Charts Shown Here Are :-
The Speculative Net Position,
Stochastic / COT Index (52 week) of Speculators
Stochastic/ COT Index (26 Week) of Commercials
The Nasdaq Emini Futures Net Position COT Charts.
Here Neither Speculators nor Commercials have NET Positions at Extreme Levels, implying that there is no conviction of a Major Market Move ! As of now .