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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 27 JANUARY: | Iron ore miners sag as ASX drops 0.7% | China stocks dip weighed by policy tightening concerns; Hang Seng up|

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 27 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Wall St Struggles for direction | These billionaires believe green hydrogen will provide a carbon-free future for iron ore mining |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 28 JANUARY: | Worst session since September as ASX drops $40b | China stocks fall on policy tightening worries, Hong Kong tracks Wall Street lower | Venus Metals adds to growing Western Australia rare earths story

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 28 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Wall St sinks in broad sell-off | FatFish Group finds traction in Asia-Pacific insurance market as revenues surge |

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 18-22 Jan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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Home Futures Softs

Count No ‘Count

Varner Brothers by Varner Brothers
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
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Count No ‘Count
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It was Faulkner when returning home from a non-combat stint in Europe during WWI, that Oxford locals called him ‘No Count behind his back when he wore his uniform around town and feigned a British accent. That term should be used for today’s report as the USDA simply wiped out 330kb of old crop cotton in the “unaccounted” column. We suggest this column heretofore be renamed Count ‘No Count so all will understand that the USDA has trouble counting bales of cotton. Moving on, the production took a huge hit, with Texas yield dropping below 600 #/a and surprisingly Alabama pegged at only 768. Maybe Texas is really that bad, but we are stumped on Alabama being so low.

Abandonment in Texas was 42%, which was above our figure of 35%, and therein lies most of our error in pegging the crop size. It appears that those who called for abandonment on the Llano Estacado at levels of 2 years ago have been proven right. Our abandonment was running 67% but others were much higher at 90%. North Carolina is a puzzle, as this state has complained about too much rain, as has Georgia. So Georgia pops out a 941 #/a and NC is only 775 #/a? Doesn’t figure. Moving into exports at 10.6 Mb, we are in perfect agreement, and think this figure will keep sliding south as sales and export numbers continue to disappoint. A 10.0 Mb export number is what we are musing.

The cut in the Chinese crop by 1 Mb to 33 Mb was expected. Now lets watch for India to pop out the topside.

Varner View
The biggest surprise today came in price action, as the triple-dipple top at 8950 was taken out, and not much happened. If we had been asked to price in a carryout of 2.8 Mb, our guess would have been 92c, or higher. This suggests the market either does not believe the 2.8 Mb carryout is realistic, or it is looking over at that unprecedented world carryout, which is dumfounding. There is no price model that exists that can correctly digest this figure. Since the overwhelming level of price discovery will be done by Chinese political moves, its very difficult to put some fundamental price boundaries on this market. Our tech target says 91.80c for the moment, and that is where we will enter some farmer hedges and spec trades.

Technicals
Momentum is positive, and at the moment it appears the triple top at 8950 is giving way. The best target for this move is 9180, which is a negative trend line on the spot chart. Total volume was 25k, which is right in the middle of extremes. The only other resistance comes from the “most active” chart, which is the continuous contract with the most open interest. It shows a double high just above 9000.

varnerbros-08132013

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