Crude’s Worst Four Months: October to January

Charts, Commentary, News, Technical Analysis

Based upon crude oil prices (near-term contract) since 1984, November is the worst performing month, down 21 times in 33 years with an average loss of 2.9%. October is nearly just as bad, down 20 times with an average decline of 2.4%. December and January are also losers on average, both down 16 times. These four consecutive months are crude oil’s “Worst Months.” The decline in price is usually the result of a decline in demand as the summer driving season has ended and a decline in demand from refineries that have already build up inventories of heating oil in preparation for winter.

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Stock Trader's Almanac (939 Posts)

Jeffrey A. Hirsch is Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. His latest book "The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles" (Wiley) was published in August 2012. As a frequent participant in the MrTopStep IM-Pro Trading Room, he shares trading insights with our other professional traders and new traders eager to experience the power of collective intelligence. Join us today and get the edge only social trading can give you.

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