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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

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    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 MAY: ASX to edge up | US stocks stumble on Snap, data | Alvo Minerals sets the wheels in motion at Brazilian Palma Project |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

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    Danny’s View: S&P 500 – Who’s The Boss? The Dead Cat Or The Bonds?

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Danny’s View:  $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

    Danny’s View: $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

    Danny’s View:  S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

    Danny’s View: S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader

    Danny’s View:  Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down  Over 4%

    Danny’s View: Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down Over 4%

    Danny’s View:  ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

    Danny’s View: ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

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MrTopStep
Home Analysis Imbalances

Use This Reading to Crush the Month-End Rotation

Contributor by Contributor
June 10, 2021
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Use This Reading to Crush the Month-End Rotation
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Most users and readers that see or use Mr. Top Step’s Market Imbalance Meter — what we call the “MiM” — tend to use it near the open and the close. However, it can also be used for playing a month-end rotation. 

Generally, the MiM is used for finding the overall market’s daily imbalance. That is, which way the orders are leaning as we near the close. Is the market “big to sell?” Will there be “a big flip to buy in the final 10 minutes?”

The MiM was an important tool for traders just a few weeks ago. While Mr. Top Step’s Danny Riley called out the bottom in the ES within two minutes and two points, the MiM helped confirm the move he was looking for; it provided the confidence bulls needed to press their longs into the close. 

Danny Riley is Mr. Top Step’s 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor and ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor. Here’s what he’s thinking each morning before the stock market opens. 

But there’s a different use for the MiM too, which is playing the month-end rotations. Everyone knows that when the S&P 500 or the MSCI funds rebalance, there’s going to be a massive flood of buy and sell orders. 

In some cases, you know what stocks will be added or dropped. But it’s hard to gauge on the fly. Or is it? 

Trading the Month-End Rotation With the MiM

Month-end rebalance closing orders
A look at the Top 10 symbols on the buy and sell side.

The MiM doesn’t just give us the aggregate imbalance of orders, it gives us the top 10 symbols on both the buy side and the sell side. The above order chart shows a massive imbalance on a number of these names. 

An imbalance of $400 million on a single stock? Sometimes the MiM for the whole market is $400 million. That gives some perspective on what’s possible with individual stocks. That number is going to move these names, even if the opportunity only comes a few times a month. 

Just look at some of these late-day spikes we saw in Disney, Tesla, Kimberly-Clark and JPMorgan. Morgan Stanley and Moderna (not pictured) also gave us some pretty good spikes too. 

MiM Buy Imbalance

Now on the downside, notice the same thing. On the chart above, I showed a bit into the next session, just to highlight the magnitude of the move. 

On the chart below, I only showed up until the close, which gives you an idea of how these names finished the day. I remember that awful feeling of seeing my stocks puke at the end of the day and not knowing what the cause was or if they would recover in the next session. Now I have a much better understanding of what’s behind some of these move — the curtain has been pulled back a bit.

MiM Sell Imbalance

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.

Generating Alpha

If you look at our regular MiM closing reports — which can be found here — most do not have such large imbalance days. However, if it’s a month-end rotation session for a large fund (like the MSCI in this case), you better believe there’s the potential for hundreds of millions of dollars to flow into or out of these individual names. 

Knowing which names are going to see that type of aggressive flow in the final 10 minutes of the day is highly valuable, as you can see on the charts above. 

It’s not hard to look at a chart of eBay or Kimberly-Clark and explain the big move by saying there was almost $300 million to buy or sell in just a few minutes. 

It’s not a daily strategy. But a month-end rotation is no joke. And if trading some of these moves isn’t in your arsenal, that’s fine! However, it at least helps to know what’s going on and it’s one way the MiM can help do just that.

Come on — check it out now. Like we said, it’s risk free for 30 days.

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