Amid a quiet calendar on the second full trading day of the year, the December 2016 FOMC meeting minutes stand out as the significant catalyst for the US Dollar today. The minutes, reflecting the conversation had amid the Fed’s 25-bps rate hike, will surely drive volatility on what has been a lackluster day for the greenback thus far.
The December 2016 FOMC minutes should reveal a cautiously hawkish tone among policymakers, although perhaps not to the degree to which rates markets have aggressively priced-in action over the next year. While financial markets have been quick to send inflation expectations higher after the Trump election win, only a “few” FOMC officials, per Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have incorporated the potential impact of fiscal stimulus into their rate projections (affectionately known as the ‘dot plot’).
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