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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 28 JANUARY: | Worst session since September as ASX drops $40b | China stocks fall on policy tightening worries, Hong Kong tracks Wall Street lower | Venus Metals adds to growing Western Australia rare earths story

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 28 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Wall St sinks in broad sell-off | FatFish Group finds traction in Asia-Pacific insurance market as revenues surge |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 27 JANUARY: | Iron ore miners sag as ASX drops 0.7% | China stocks dip weighed by policy tightening concerns; Hang Seng up|

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 27 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Wall St Struggles for direction | These billionaires believe green hydrogen will provide a carbon-free future for iron ore mining |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 25 JANUARY: | ASX closes 0.4% higher at new 11-month high, Fatfish digital insurance subsidiary Fatberry records ‘explosive’ revenue results|

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 25 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Palladium supply is drying up. These Aussie stocks could open the floodgates |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 22 JANUARY: | ASX up 1.3pc in huge week for Zip, Lynas | iCandy looks to double up in Chinese gaming market with Rocky Rampage launch |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Apple lifts Wall Street | The tests ASX healthcare companies have upcoming in 2021 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 21 JANUARY: | ASX gains 0.8pc | Greenhouse study shows AVZ Minerals could achieve lowest carbon footprint at Manono lithium-tin project |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 28 JANUARY: | Worst session since September as ASX drops $40b | China stocks fall on policy tightening worries, Hong Kong tracks Wall Street lower | Venus Metals adds to growing Western Australia rare earths story

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 28 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Wall St sinks in broad sell-off | FatFish Group finds traction in Asia-Pacific insurance market as revenues surge |

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 18-22 Jan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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Days Gone By

Varner Brothers by Varner Brothers
Friday, August 9, 2013
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This was one of those old-fashioned trading days, as the dollar sank to a new 4 week low, and nearly the entire board showed gains.  This is how things used to be, and how Bernanke wants them to be.  The energy markets did not follow, but those markets have been on a roll since making major lows in mid April with crude at $85.  If the broad CRB has begun a major price reversal, cotton never suffered the summer bear markets as did so many others.

kathyCotton has done well enough to close much of the gap between grain prices, and if one added in seed rebates, then cotton is pretty much in the thick of things as Southern hemisphere growers make their decisions.  Assuming a 3c basis, and a 12c seed rebate, growers are eyeballing a net of 94c on the July contract.  SA basis levels are notoriously large, so it may not be quite fair to assume just 3c in this example.  Regardless, something above 90c net puts cotton nose-to-nose with soy at $12 and corn at $5, which have their own notorious basis levels.

 

Varner View

Allow us to venture out on a limb and throw some attention to the crop for Dec 14.  At 80c futures, and a seed rebate of at least a dime, something near 90c net must be considered as a profitable hedge.  There are two very real dangers for the Dec 14, one being that China eventually eases away from hoarding cotton.  And the 2nd is that grains prices may be much lower next year than now.  Reasonable yields and offtake will mean growing surpluses for grains into next year, and probably so for cotton.  Falling grains prices and unstable Chinese bureaucrats could mean a disaster for Dec 14 cotton.

Technicals

What is now a triple top at 8950 probably will not hold, as technically based traders see these price levels as sure-fire stop-loss triggers.  Trying to find a possible target for this move higher, we go to the spot continuous chart, and construct a trend line across highs of Mar and June.  This line crosses today at about 9180.  One other thing to make note of regards the triple top for Dec at 8950.  This is also the spike high the spot contract made in June 2012, when July 12 jumped from 6610 to 8948 in 2 weeks.

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