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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 December: A Friday fizzer for Aussie markets as energy and tech stocks drag | Mitre Mining acquires transformational Chilean silver-gold project |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 November: ASX climbs again as IRESS jumps 16pc | Cettire down 10pc as big shareholder dumps stock | Boss Energy captures trace uranium from start-up wells at Honeymoon project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 November: ASX to rise | Dow +0.2% S&P +0.1% Nasdaq +0.03% | Spot gold +0.3% to $US2047.98/oz |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 December: ASX up almost 2pc as iron ore, lithium miners jump; Evolution Mining down 14pc | Phase 3 extension on the cards as Latin’s Salinas resource vaults 56pc |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 5 December: Shares chartered their worst one-day decline in more than a month | Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave rates at 4.35 per cent |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 5 December: ASX to fall, Wall Street rally hits a wall | Hillgrove’s ‘rotainers’ have arrived at Port Adelaide | 30 years ago, a disruptive tech devastated copper prices. It could be about to happen again |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 4 December: Shares rally as gold hits all-time high, Bitcoin above US$40k for first time this year | ADX Energy extends collaboration with MND through farm-out of gas exploration prospects in Upper Austria |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 4 December: ASX to jump higher | S&P/ASX 200 futures were tipping a 65-point, or 0.9 per cent jump | Gold: US$2,071.25 (+1.68%) |

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    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 December: ASX up almost 2pc as iron ore, lithium miners jump; Evolution Mining down 14pc | Phase 3 extension on the cards as Latin’s Salinas resource vaults 56pc |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 5 December: Shares chartered their worst one-day decline in more than a month | Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave rates at 4.35 per cent |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 5 December: ASX to fall, Wall Street rally hits a wall | Hillgrove’s ‘rotainers’ have arrived at Port Adelaide | 30 years ago, a disruptive tech devastated copper prices. It could be about to happen again |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 4 December: Shares rally as gold hits all-time high, Bitcoin above US$40k for first time this year | ADX Energy extends collaboration with MND through farm-out of gas exploration prospects in Upper Austria |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 4 December: ASX to jump higher | S&P/ASX 200 futures were tipping a 65-point, or 0.9 per cent jump | Gold: US$2,071.25 (+1.68%) |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 December: A Friday fizzer for Aussie markets as energy and tech stocks drag | Mitre Mining acquires transformational Chilean silver-gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 December: ASX to open lower | Dow +1% S&P -0.1% Nasdaq -0.7% | Spot gold -0.5% to $US2034 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 November: ASX climbs again as IRESS jumps 16pc | Cettire down 10pc as big shareholder dumps stock | Boss Energy captures trace uranium from start-up wells at Honeymoon project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 November: ASX to rise | Dow +0.2% S&P +0.1% Nasdaq +0.03% | Spot gold +0.3% to $US2047.98/oz |

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  • Charts

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 December: ASX up almost 2pc as iron ore, lithium miners jump; Evolution Mining down 14pc | Phase 3 extension on the cards as Latin’s Salinas resource vaults 56pc |

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 5 December: Shares chartered their worst one-day decline in more than a month | Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave rates at 4.35 per cent |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 5 December: ASX to fall, Wall Street rally hits a wall | Hillgrove’s ‘rotainers’ have arrived at Port Adelaide | 30 years ago, a disruptive tech devastated copper prices. It could be about to happen again |

    Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 4 December: Shares rally as gold hits all-time high, Bitcoin above US$40k for first time this year | ADX Energy extends collaboration with MND through farm-out of gas exploration prospects in Upper Austria |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 4 December: ASX to jump higher | S&P/ASX 200 futures were tipping a 65-point, or 0.9 per cent jump | Gold: US$2,071.25 (+1.68%) |

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Home Commentary MrTopStep

Don’t try to steer a roller coaster, just hang on and have fun

Vikram Rangala by Vikram Rangala
January 31, 2014
in MrTopStep, Stocks, Trading Psychology
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Don’t try to steer a roller coaster, just hang on and have fun
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ES 03-14 (15 Min)  1_31_2014When markets are going up and down and uncertainty reigns, you have to make two decisions, one long-term, the other short-term.

Taking the long view and trusting yourself

Long-term, you decide that the uncertainty of the markets won’t make you doubt yourself. Markets do it from time to time. It’s human nature and part of the business cycle. One of my favorite two-word sentences (#1, of course, is John 11:35) is the first line of Dr. Spock’s Baby and Child Care: “Trust yourself.”

Sometimes even good things lead to uncertainty. The U.S. economy grew at 3.2% in Q4, not as high as some quarters, especially in 2012, but far above the Eurozone’s 0.1%. And lest we forget, the whole reason for the Fed’s taper is that unemployment has been below 8% for 18 months and the 46 straight months of job creation under President Obama, though weak, have not abated.DPCCPrivateSectorPayroll11014

And if President Obama makes good on his threat to simply bypass Congress whenever possible–a threat he hid in a calculatedly bland State of the Union–he will finish his term engaging in an outright campaign of civil disobedience against the legislative branch. In a struggle between the majority of Americans and the largely bought-and-paid-for Congress, I know who I like.

Warren Buffett is known for long-term thinking. His well-known ideal time to hold a stock is “forever,” though it has actually been more like 5 to 10 years, depending on when you start counting.

He recently announced a $3 billion investment in ExxonMobil, which did enjoy a modest gain soon afterwards. Now, following a disappointing earnings report for one quarter, ExxonMobil’s stock price has fallen back to his entry point. But if he does anything, Buffett is most likely to increase his stake.

Since New Capitalists like me believe that fossil fuels are as much dinosaurs as the dinosaurs whose carcasses turned into crude oil, I’m guessing that he won’t hold Exxon “forever,” but he may hold it until we finally have cheap, abundant solar energy and high-capacity batteries. For that, we’re really just one Apollo or Manhattan project away. Those took less than a decade.

That’s long-term thinking. It requires you to treat quarterly fluctuations as just noise. Your main decision is to let others do the emotional drama while you ask yourself the simple question, “Would I buy/sell at this price now?” If the answer is yes, don’t worry. The herd will do enough worrying for all of us.

Here and now

The short-term decision, for day traders and shorter-term position traders and especially for futures traders like me who deal in contracts that expire and are as likely to be short as long, the decision is still about what to focus on and how to manage emotions.

Though the trading pits in the CME and NYSE are the most visible scene of public panic and emotionality, you get the same thing in prop desks, trading rooms and kitchen tables all over the world.

Remember this: If you can master your own emotions, then the emotionality of others becomes your secret weapon.

Why? Imagine you found out someone had stolen $1000 from your bank account. Then five minutes later, someone called with a business opportunity that would pay $10,000 in six months. You’d say, “Can’t talk now! I just had $1000 stolen!” and hang up on an opportunity ten times more lucrative.

It’s the same in trading. If you just “know” that the market is going to drop, but it keeps rallying every time you take a short position, you’ll miss the obvious opportunity to go long and follow the trend of the moment.

You’re too busy trying to tell the market what it should do, instead of listening to what it’s telling you. You’re too busy needing to be right. You’re failing to master your emotions.

Master them, however, and you’ll ride the ups and downs of each new roller coaster that you climb into, enjoying the thrill of a healthy level of risk and laughing all the way.

The decision you need to make in every moment is: Which is more important, always being right or making money?

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