Our good friend, technical analyst guru and George Lindsay authority, Ed Carlson of Seattle Technical Advisors, has just put out an interesting research note on how the combination of the Election Cycle and several of the late, venerable George Lindsay’s cycles and intervals are pointing to a potential top in mid-August. I have included an excerpt and chart below from Ed’s latest report.
If you would like a free copy of this Lindsay August Report entitled “Kill-Zone” visit Ed’s contact us page: http://seattletechnicaladvisors.com/contactus.html and tell him the Almanac Trader sent you. For more on George Lindsay check out http://seattletechnicaladvisors.com/georgelindsay.html.
The beginning of the 15-page report covers a plethora of technical internal and sentiment indicators and after a few pages on the Lindsay cycles, seasonality and the election cycle it covers a host of markets from China to treasuries to crude and gold.
By Ed Carlson, CMT – August 5, 2013
The various models of George Lindsay have come together this week to create what looks to be the Kill-Zone for the 2009 bull market.
In the 5/28/13 Market Update I first presented the idea of combining the election year cycle work of Stock Trader’s Almanac with George Lindsay’s concept of the Long Cycle. I wish I had paid more attention to it then but it looks very good to have it now as it confirms a Kill-Zone in August.
Lindsay Time Intervals
Lindsay wrote that a count of 221-224 days from the “second test of the low” (low of the
separating decline) in his Three Peaks and a Domed House model should point to the high of a bull market. Assuming the “second test” was on 12/31/12, a count from then targets the time period 8/9/13-8/12/13.
Lindsay’s 107-day count (a range of 102-112 calendar days) targets a high between 7/30/13 and 8/9/13.
It would seem that the overlapping period would provide the “kill-zone” for the bull market. In this case, the two periods overlap on only one day; 8/9/13.
However, a final high to the bull market on 8/7/13 would make the November rally equal to 2.50x the June-September 2012 rally and 8/7/13 is a new moon.
In the 5/28/13 Market Update I first presented the idea of combining the election year cycle work of Stock Trader’s Almanac with George Lindsay’s concept of the Long Cycle. In that Update I wrote:
“I quickly decided that comparing all postelection years to one another is similar to comparing apples to oranges. After all, why would we expect similar results from those postelection years in secular bear markets as those in secular bull markets? The current secular bear market began at the low in 2002. Other secular bears ran from 1921-1942 and 1962-1982. These may not be the dates you commonly associate with secular markets as they were determined using Lindsay’s long cycle. I next created the chart at the bottom of this page. It includes all 13 post-election years in the two previous secular bear/long cycles as well as 2005 and 2009.”
Bottom Line: That chart is reproduced at the left. I wish I had paid more attention to it then but it looks very good to have it now.
Click to view full size…