Today sees the CPI and PPI data out in Europe and the UK early on, we then have US Retail Sales in the afternoon, therefore despite holiday trade we could see a pick up. Chances are the data tomorrow could be the catalyst for the turn.
EURUSD
Long: 1.3285
RTAS Order Book systems currently long the pair, however with Retail Buyers today the systems are now extremely close to shorting this. If we find more Retail Buyers overnight we could see shorts during the Asia session otherwise the CPI/PPI data in the morning is likely to be key.
EURUSD today attempted to push the 1.33000 handle but found some interim support for the time being. The pairs recent test of highs does look to be fading again and the pair looks heavy, with Retail Traders now buying in the cross we could easily see a push lower now.
GBPUSD
Long: 15180
RTAS Order Book systems are still holding long this pair however we have seen some Retail Buying today on a move lower, if we continue this trend we could see the RTAS system book profit on longs and enter this pair short.
GBPUSD failed to hold above the 200 day SMA, and has again today rejected the critical level. Whilst we remain below the 1.5580 mark we prefer to look for reversal patterns whilst we hold long, continuation of Retail Buyers could offer some good short confirmations.
AUDUSD
Long: 0.9090
Rather irrelevant day for the Aussie today. RTAS Order Book system currently holding longs in this pair as it continues to attempt to carve out a bottom. Retail Traders selling strength in the pair has helped it push back past the 0.9000 level with the 0.9100 / 0.9080 levels now key for this pair holding support. If it can hold above these key levels and we start to see further Retail Selling on any strength we could see this pair start to form its correctional move higher.
This pair has found some interim support around the 0.8900 level. Although we maintain the outlook that this pair is carving out a bottom, we still suspect further chop and could easily see a push lower before further strength, that said with a few more Retail Sellers creeping in we like the idea that this is now on its way to a correctional move.
USDCHF
Short: 0.9275
Order Book systems holding short this pair although today’s reversal from last weeks dip lower does point to a bottoming in this pair as well. With Retail Traders selling strength in the move higher we could see the RTAS Order Book systems soon switch to long USDCHF positions. Retail Sales tomorrow could be key.
Daily chart looking relatively supported now coming off of critical levels but closed within our key blue box. We suspect this pair is now carving out a bottom and like the idea of looking for confirmation long trades. Key will be data out of Europe and the US as a lot will hinge on the EURUSD and the Septaper trade.
EURAUD
Short: 1.4800
The RTAS Order Book system currently holding shorts this pair as it continues to find Retail Buyers. We like the idea that this pair may have now topped as the AUDUSD looks to carve out a correctional move and the EURUSD looks to reverse, however this pair will need to fight its way below the 1.4400 and hold below this level to stand a chance for a further move lower.
Some real tell tale signs on the daily charts with extreme RSI divergence suggested the pair could drop rapidly and it has from initial highs. Ideally we will now see this pair retrace back towards the 1.4000 mark with further Retail Buying in the cross. Recent moves have allowed it to creep back from super extreme territory, where we have seen Retail Traders aggressively short this pair since the 1.2400 mark (not a typo I generally mean they have lost a silly amount).
Will be key to see this pair break the rising trend line which has also acted as good support.
