Collective Intelligence! It was a high-profile economic nomination by President Barack Obama last year: the presidency of the World Bank. Months before decision day, word leaked out that Lawrence Summers was a leading candidate. Activists and economists penned open letters and petitions, invoking grievances large and small against the former Treasury secretary. Interest groups worked themselves into a tizzy; one created the website ForgetLarry.org. Voters on the nomination offered their own sniping. http://on.wsj.com/18TL8Ww
How much pressure is too much? Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the party’s whip in the Senate, is the most senior Republican to publicly declare that he does not want Summers to succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed chairman.
The fastest-growing social platform on the planet: “An incredible 21% of the global internet population now use Twitter actively on a monthly basis.” http://bit.ly/19OLeD3
Today started with 203k ESZ traded on Globex, ESZ trading range was 1674.00 – 1680.75. Thursday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPZ pit session trading range was 1675.00 – 1683.00 before settling at 1678.30, down 3.9 handles. In Asia, 8 of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp. -0.86%, Hang Seng -0.17%, Nikkei +0.12%. In Europe 11 out of 12 markets were trading modestly lower (DAX -0.01% , FTSE -0.27%). Roger_Volz (05:40) Obama to nominate Summers as Fed chief – Japan’s Nikkei pulls off 1687 – White House: Reports In Japanese Press That Obama Is Set To Name Larry Summers as Fed Chairman – Are Wrong / twitter IPO news flow helps NQ / Eurozone employment -1.0v-0.9/JPY IP3.4v 3.2. / GC fills close < 55sma fills air 1305.20 / jefferies lowers AAPL tgt / raises INTC / jpy weakness / kiwi strength highlights FX / news flow not yet derailing / ITALY BANK BAD-LOAN RATIO ROSE TO 7.2% IN JULY VS 5.7% YR AGO… back burner / Indonesia raises rate 25 bps, 4th hike this year… bank burner
US RETAIL SALES SLOW IN AUGUST Ex. AUTOS AND GAS CLIMB 0.1% vs Est. +0.3%). Total sales rose only 0.2% in August, below consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain. However, July sales growth was revised up to 0.4% from 0.2%. The retail sales control group, which goes into the calculation of GDP, rose 0.2%, below expectations for a 0.3% advance. In July, the control group rose 0.5%.
[JPM] cuts U.S. third quarter GDP forecast to 2% from 2.5%; they were on the high side to begin with. Revising Q3 GDP from 2.5% to 2.0%: We are lowering our tracking estimate of the annualized growth of real GDP in Q3 from 2.5% to 2.0%. For the past few weeks source data have been coming in a little light relative to our expectations, particularly as it relates to consumption, foreign trade, and inventories (though stockbuilding is still running fairly strong this quarter). With an expected upward revision in Q2 from 2.5% to 2.9%, Q3 appears to be tracking right in line with first half average growth. We are leaving unrevised our forward outlook, and we still look for a modest acceleration in Q4 to 2.5%. While we of course have no source data on fourth quarter activity, business surveys indicate that momentum may be improving somewhat heading into next quarter.
Coming into today, the S&P 500 was up 6 of the 8 trading sessions in September, and this month alone the December contract has rallied from the Friday, Aug. 30, settlement of 1624.60 to yesterday’s high of 1682.20. And no letup on a Friday afternoon, just days in front of the FOMC decision, tapering and who the heck is going to take over for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Don’t worry… The debt ceiling is discussed below.
Holiday effect “atonement” big day tomorrow.
Today’s December S&P 500, SPZ pit session opened one handle higher to 1679.50 – 1679.30 before finding an early and tight range of 1681.50 – 1675.30 to sit in. The initial move was a slow grind up to a high of 1681.80 just before the disappointment. U.S. SEPT. REUTERS/MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX AT 76.8, exp 82.0 prev 82.1 – as sentiment flops on interest rate fears amongst other angst. Misaligned? This is the dread caused by man’s awareness that his future is not freely chosen, but must be determined by those that have a habit of going the wrong, long way around. Anyway, today was an inside day for the SPZ which never leads to too much excitement – at least on the day of. Trading within the previous day’s range can lead to big moves down the road, as for today many left early as some have or are taking their chips off the table in front of next week’s events.
The stats lean to the upside through the roll and the quarterly rebalance. Jason Carter (10:16) bull flag 120 min vs right shoulders forming. buying vol may be the way to go. See Sept vol bid into FOMC. elway (10:46) hard to sell a quiet tape with positive breadth on the friday before expiration. mts2 (12:41) Russell new high. iceChat (13:290 Russell making new highs. The early look on the closing imbalance showed (14:11 ) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showing a slight 96%, $500M, to the sell side as the NYSE was approaching, oh my 345M in volume, a bit behind yesterday’s volume. The MiM was showing only (14:36) $440M to sell. elway (14:41) it will pair off. At 2:45 the SPZ was trading 1680 area when the closing imbalance showed a modest $165M to the sell side. The cash close traded 1687.80 area before the SPZ went on to print a new intraday high of 1682.20 on the last print of the day! Settled at 1678.30, down 3.9 handles on the day and closing out the second week in a row with gains. Last week SPZ settled at 1646.80 and Friday, Aug. 30, settled 1624.60. This was the best week for the [DJIA] in 8 months, and in the face of FOMC tapering, the debt ceiling, Syria, elections and the long wait for President Obama’s announcement of his choice for the new Fed head.
Shot Thursdays at 10:00CT: Brian Shepard and Jill Malandrino @TheStreet http://bit.ly/186FaiE
Dear President Putin, …When you told us that Americans are not “exceptional” — well, that hurts all of us American people. I was surprised by this lapse because I think you really “get” Americans. When we saw photos of you shirtless in Siberia, you brought to mind one of our most celebrated American lawmakers, Anthony Weiner. When we watched you navigate around Russian laws to stay in power, you brought to mind another quintessentially American figure, Rod Blagojevich. The Harley-Davidson, the black clothing, the mistress half your age — you are practically American yourself. http://wapo.st/19N5d1U
stephen_c (09:50) MTS2 great post you left out his net worth 40 billion, 24 homes 42 planes – KBG pays well. mts2 (09:57) True? stephen_c (09:57) you bet!!
william_blount (09:51) and when you insinuated our president was an AMSTEUR you offended 52 % our country!
Beware…The U.S. government has returned from vacation, both the House and Senate are in session…with only days before the end of the fiscal year and before the current spending authority expires. Without action (including a one-month emergency extension) shutdown on Oct. 1. Treasury “X Date” May Hit As Soon As October 18: http://bit.ly/15T6Jv6
Shutdown deja vu on Hill: Once again, the government is on the brink of a shutdown — it’s just 18 days away — and the House has left town with a flurry of legislative plans bouncing around. The Senate is rejecting every single one out of hand. http://politi.co/1bf0DwZ