Disclaimer: For educational use only. I’m not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB’s clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!
May you live in interesting times. That’s a Chinese curse. I’ve typed that three times in the past five years. It is perhaps the most interesting time of all. I’ve been waiting my whole life for this day. At least I heard it today. “12 banks and 12 weeks the Federal Reserve will start testing a digital currency.” Hopefully, it’ll be 12 years till you’ll see it. It’s the beginning of the end of Fiat Currency. But it’ll probably be 12 months…
I talked about rescuing the stuck bulls last week. Yes, I think they probably got rescued. Across the board, the DOW 30 securities opened down. Gap down. The previous day was a “nothing burger day.” I thought the day would open normally where it closed. That was before GLOBEX dropped it like it was hard.
It’s either PPI or GLOBEX that rains on your cloud. It’s would have been that #3 spring I talked about. That’s when you get lower lows and lower lows. When the market opened the lows were already there. And all the DOW 30 securities could do was start lifting offers.
Looking at the volume today 1.1 MM lots. Almost the same as the previous day. Not all but most of the securities were checked at their previous low of day or close. Not a great story for the bulls. Just more of a technical rally.
The QQQ tells the story. Unable to lift the offers from the previous day’s close. This indicates weakness. by the inability to absorb offerings just under the range of the previous day’s close. You can see from 1:00 pm to 1:30 pm a Zone of Supply. Then at 2:05 pm a small quick upward thrust to catch shorts. This is a brief rally to the third lower top emphasizing the increasing weakness of the market’s whole position at the 30-minute range of distribution.
Looking Forward to November 18, 2022
Due to recent changes in market behavior I’ve decided to change my focus to Time based trading. This allows you to benefit from the flow of the arrow of time and not fight against the algos in the nanosecond.
From last week: By my eye, I still say we need to pull back before charging ahead…
I’m still doubling down. If you look at a daily chart you can see an upthrust on 11/15 at the open that failed and sold off till 2:30 pm at the 3960 handle. Then later GLOBEX tagged 4015 and sold off a few days later.
Yesterday price dropped 100 handles lower and tagged the 3912 handle. And then tagged the 3960 handle. If you are using trend lines, the high from yesterday was checked before it could reach the supply line.
This failure to rally fully up to the supply line stresses existing weakness and cancels tentative bullish indications.
This could play out one or two ways. Easy or hard. Price could rally as shorts cover and test the upper range or just start to drift down to find a lower low.
The easy way has the highest probability as today is the start of a new cycle. If the price shows strength, you may see a rally up to previous distribution.
The hard way is if it just sells off and drops it like it’s hard…
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